Growth of solar electricity (photovoltaics) in Belgium 2011

Groei van zonnestroom (PV) in België, 2011

For actual data Apere on Belgium PV market 2012: here

For recent year data Flanders, see also separate webpage

PV in Flanders (VREG) [summary] 2 graphs (1 interactive)

Flanders: status March 2, 2012*
status Vlaanderen: 2 maart 2012*

Older material on previous web page

Flanders/Vlaanderen: (23 graphs, incl. interactive)

2010 onwards - overview and details

Market growth 2011 - preliminary results table

Capacity growth (MWp) and growth in Wp/inhabitant, incl. NL
Capaciteitsgroei (MWp) en groei in Wp/inwoner, incl. NL 2 interactive graphs

PV has most capacity installed in renewable electricity
PV grootste opgestelde capaciteit bij hernieuwbare stroom 1 graph

Distribution among PV-installations >10 kWac
Installaties groter dan 10 kWac in Vlaanderen: verdeling
(accumulating data and new installations/period, respectively)
3 graphs

Distribution among PV-installations < 10 kWac
Installaties kleiner of gelijk dan 10 kWac in Vlaanderen: verdeling 2 graphs

Average daily new capacity per month in small and large category
Gemiddelde dagelijkse bijbouw per maand in zowel kleine als grote categorie
3 graphs

Additions to the >10 kWac list - status
Toevoegingen aan de >10 kWac lijst - status

Flanders - renewable electricity mix shows clear PV component
Zonnestroom reeds duidelijk aanwezig in de hernieuwbare stroommix 5 graphs

More details on Flanders PV market
Wetenswaardigheden over de Vlaamse PV markt

Photo's:
Harelbeke 5,004 MWp flat roof project by Orka
Loghidden City first modules (Katoen Natie portion of 40 MW multi-site project)
770 kW Juma Beton project in Lommel
1.014 kW Mechelse Veiling project in Sint-Katelijne-Waver
Loghidden City video still (from Invictus company video)
Solar power plants for locks - example Albert Canal
Biggest Benelux free-field installation Nyrstar 7,6 MWp (or bigger?)
Small is beautiful - example in the ancient heart of Gent

Specials:
Katoen Natie (2 graphs)
Map with private PV-installations (map)
Big Players in Flanders (table)
Official date of VREG approval for projects >10 kWac (3 graphs)
>10 kWac projects per net manager region (1 graph)

The rest of Belgium/de rest van België:
Wallonië/Region Wallonne (3 graphs)
Brussel/Bruxelles (2 graphs)

Estimation for PV-capacity (growth in) in Belgium
Schatting PV-capaciteit geheel België

Previous articles concerning Belgium PV-market published by Polder PV
Eerdere stukken op Polder PV over Belgische PV-markt

Sources/Bronnen

English summary for 2010 on Solarplaza.com
(external link, status March 1, 2011, see also pdf)
English summary for 2009 on Solarplaza.com
(external link, status April 1, 2010, see also pdf)

Voor ontwikkeling Nederlandse markt zie de aparte pagina NL
(For Dutch market details look here)

* Update resulting from last status report date-stamped February 1, 2012 on VREG site, and
older VREG data (year reports of previous years, monhly updates as of Feb. 2011)

Vlaanderen/Flandres ("Vlaamse Gewest")

VREG - PV in Flanders (PV in Vlaanderen) update up till March 2, 2012 (downloaded: March 9, 2012)

Results from the market statistics produced by the "Vlaamse Reguleringsinstantie voor de Elektriciteits- en Gasmarkt" (VREG) for PV market development in Flanders. Statistics are frequently refreshed on VREG's website, but sometimes have lagged behind 1-2 months in recent years due to serious work overload at the regulator's office. Since April 2010 there has been a continuous update per month, although month reports can lag behind for a longer period. It must be emphasized here that older "numbers" reported by VREG can still be updated afterwards, as can be found in the [updated] year reports by the regulatory authority, and also, since 2011, in extensive, updated month reports. Hence: earlier published year accumulation for PV-capacity, can change as a backlog of installations not yet covered for that year is added even years later. This was particularly so for the data for 2009, that VREG first revised officially in their Feb. 28, 2011 month report (dramatically increasing capacity and installation numbers for 2009 compared to the original 2009 year report). This realisation made Polder PV update his earlier data on basis of VREG's yearly reports, and update his graphs published sofar. Updates will be further provided with each month report if time allows.

Graphs made by Polder PV from the principal VREG data (and other sources) are found directly below (roll-over image). Data for earlier years (up to 2004 from graph published by ODE, this webpage) have been replaced by new VREG data published since the Feb. 28, 2011 report. The latter report has been the first reference for new and more detailed analysis, which are augmented by new data in detailed monthly reports as of March 2011. Note: data in these graphs are only for the "Vlaamse Gewest", the Flanders territory excluding Brussels, and also not including the large French speaking Walloon region. See the separate sections for these areas on this webpage. A first analysis for the Belgium market "as a whole" has been published by Polder PV in articles published for the 2010 Solar Future Belgium symposium by SolarPlaza (original article here, pdf with graphs here). The version I wrote for the 2011 SolarPlaza Symposium can be found here (pdf can be found here). Recently, a new extensive status report has been published prior to the Solar Future Belgium '12 conference. This update can be found here (note also comments added below the report by the author; pdf here).

MWac, not MWp
It is important to note that data published for the Belgium market relate to maximum inverter capacity involved (kWac), and do not refer to nominal STC power of the DC generator (kWp), as previously thought, and still often suggested as such in the media. Polder PV, on asking VREG, what accumulated MWp [STC] power could be on Flemish soil, got the reply that this is unknown for many older installations, and that such data have not yet been compiled by the regulator. A "standard calculation factor" to obtain MWp power from the registered MWac data is not used by VREG because of the uncertainties there-in (e-mail reply to webmaster of Polder PV, March 8, 2011). If one would calculate in a conservative manner, one could multiply the AC power in the tables and graphs with a DC generator : AC inverter capacity factor 1,1 (hence: based on the results published in the March 2, 2012 report, Flanders could have accumulated 1.549 (MWac) * 1,1 = 1.704 MWp of nominal DC power (STC capacity of PV-modules involved). Earlier results published by VREG have revealed that somewhere in June of 2011, the 1 GWp nominal STC capacity for photovoltaic installations could have been "cracked" in Flanders. This remains, however, an uncertain value as long as VREG is unable to provide more details. Since VREG always adds new capacity for previous months, it is however certain that the early summer of 2011 has been the "marker date" for Flanders to reach the as yet exclusive club of "countries" or "regions" (don't forget that Flanders is part of Belgium!) that has more than 1 GWp of PV-installations on its soil (e.g.: Germany, Italy, Japan, U.S.A. & Spain, China, France, and the Czech Republic, see also analysis of EPIA 2011 market report).

Note that reporting new PV capacity to VREG has become more strict, and that AC as well as DC capacity must be reported. The "problem" lies in the DC capacity for many older installations, that is still unknown.

For population data, the number of inhabitants for the Vlaamse Gewest only has been taken ("Vlaamse Gewest" app. 6,3 million, "Vlaamse Gemeenschap" including Brussels would have app. 7,3 million Flemish inhabitants, according to this Wikipedia site). Data for Flanders are compared with data available for the Netherlands in the graphs. For further information please contact the webmaster of Polder PV.

Total market growth for Flanders in 2009
New calculations had to be done based on the additional data published by VREG in their February 2011 report and in the later revisions, in which the capacities per year were continuously updated. Originally, VREG, published a volume of only 245,051 MWac and 47.273 new installations for 2009, in their year report for that year (dated May 2010). This has been grossly adjusted in the new data and still is revised on a monthly basis, although with minor additions in the second half of 2011 (in the order of 0,5-1 MWac per month). This is probably the result of the fact that many installations have been mounted end of December 2009 without inverters, for which two months extra allowance time in 2010 had been given by the Flemish authorities ("transition period"). This to the effect of finalizing the PV-systems, and to be able to apply for the "old" 45 Eurocents per kWh (green certificates value), instead of the 35 Eurocents that became valid for all other new installations as of Jan. 1, 2010 (up till the end of that year). Possibly VREG originally counted (part of) those installations finalized before end of February 2010 as belonging to the "2009 cohort".

The latest VREG numbers in the March 2, 2012 year market update are impressive for the Dutch-speaking Flemish region in the relatively small country of Belgium: 49.963 new installations in 2009 (5,7% over the original year report 2009 value), and a respectable 453,306 MWac of new capacity (85,0% over the previously reported volume in the first year report...). Putting that volume equal to 1,1 * 453 = 498 MWp DC capacity, that would roughly be a factor 47 as much as the absolute "growth" in PV capacity (10,7 MWp in 2009, first data CBS) in the (whole of the) Netherlands bordering Flanders in the north.

Year growth Flanders market
In the graphs presented below I will first give the latest year results (or: predictions) up till 2011 from the most important sources for the Flemish market: regulator VREG and (latest data, updated after an almost year long "stall" of these important numbers) branche organisation PV Vlaanderen (former BelPV). All graphs give AC power of installations (note: deviating from common practice in Germany, where DC power capacities are published, "Generator Leistung" in kWp, MWp, etc.).

ROLL-OVER IMAGE. Mouse pointer away from the image shows the most recent available data from the standard monthly reports by VREG (revised year data renewable electricity generation capacity as of March 1, 2012†), and the data presented by PV-Vlaanderen (former BelPV) branche organisation in their completely updated "Marktgegevens / cijfers" section (higher than the numbers in their report "Zonnige toekomst voor Vlaanderen", publ. January 2012). Mouse pointer over the image shows earlier data from VREG's year report 2010 (publ. August 5, 2011), and older data by PV-Vlaanderen that could be found for a long time on their website in 2011 up till February 2012 (see also my comments). For 2010, changes are remarkable, as they were before for 2009. The 2009 year report capacity data have been revised dramatically in the 2010 VREG year report (published August 2011). Older prognoses from PV-Vlaanderen have always been to low, such as happened with branche organisation's estimates in other booming solar markets. The old data that PV-Vlaanderen had on their website for a long time (green columns when mouse pointer is over graph) could still be found on their website in December 2011. They did, however, finally revise the VREG data in their short market overview in November of 2011 (under "cijfers"). The numbers in a separate report, "Een zonnige toekomst voor Vlaanderen", published January 2012, are, however, also outdated ("2010: 316,6; 2011: 430 MWac"). The data presented on their website in March (green, mouse pointer away from the graph) do also not show actual status published by VREG. Numbers for 2011 will certainly increase further as VREG will report more on their backlog entries for that year in the coming months, such has happened for 2010 in the month reports in 2011. Note that capacity in graphs and text is in AC power unless specified otherwise (maximum inverter power of the installations involved). Total installed nominal generator power (MWp STC tested power of all PV-modules) is as of yet unknown for many older installations by market regulator VREG, but could conservatively be taken as 1,1 times AC power. † Data taken from the standard month report, published March 2, 2012. Note that VREG also published a preliminary Excel overview with year data for 2011 dated March 1, 2012, with slightly lower numbers as those in the detail report highlighted on this webpage (e.g., 641,6 MWac accumulation in 2011). See analysis by Polder PV on the separate webpage.

Yearly added new PV-capacity (grid-connected) in Flanders completely revised by VREG, in their March 2, 2012 month report (mouse pointer away from graph). The changes with respect to previous known "officially published" numbers (mouse pointer over the image) are remarkable for the year 2010: Following data from the year report 2010, VREG originally published preliminary new capacity of 253,8 MWac for 2010. This has been changed into a considerable higher 344,4 MWac in the March 2, 2012 update (almost 36% more capacity than previously published). Even the originally published new capacity for 2009, 445,8 MWac, had to be revised accordingly: the adjusted new capacity published for that year in the March 2, 2012 report now has been adjusted to 453,3 MWac, 1,7% more capacity. Although in theory still volume might be added, it is expected that this will only be a minor volume; the biggest changes in the statistics for a certain year become apparent in the following year.

Branche organisation PV-Vlaanderen (previously BelPV) for a long time implied 412,7 MWac for 2009 (mouse pointer over graph) in a graph originally published in February 2011 (and still on their website up till February 2012), and a preliminary 165 MWac for 2010. They have only recently adjusted market data for 2009 and, in particular for their "way-off" data for 2010. End of 2010 PV-Vlaanderen predicted a small "end-of-year-rush" of possibly 80 MWac in December 2010. Up till the March 2, 2012 report, however, only for the >10 kWac category already 653 installations (or registered portions of large systems) have now been officially designated to that final month of 2010, with a total added capacity of 156,7 MWac. Hence, BelPV apparently published an extremely conservative prediction in contrast to what I thought earlier. The strange thing is, that Jo Neyens of BelPV has been one of the approximately three-thousand people, organisations and companies (status: Jan. 20, 2011) signing the petition to the Flemish government ("Laat de zon schijnen" - "Let the sun shine") to prevent harsh degression measures for the coming feed-in tariffs for PV. In that well-written document, dated November 25, 2010 (one of the authors works for the well-known PV-system planner Enfinity), the old market data by VREG (that I originally took as a basic reference) were also used for the calculations (pages 7-8 of the pdf available through that website). There they also took the VREG year report 2009 data, and the following month reports as "true market data" to calculate the probable volume of kWh's produced (and green certificates to be issued) based on that market growth. It is now apparent, that many calculations will have to be revised since much larger volumes have already been reported in the continuous updates published by VREG.

Preliminary monthly growth Flemish PV-market 2011, status March 1, 2012

Taking the continuously revised new monthly VREG data for PV-installations and capacity assigned to 2011 (March 2, 2012 report, with data up till, and inclusive, Feb. 29, 2012), the following picture emerges:

^^^ Most recent update of accumulated PV capacities for Flanders per year as reported by VREG in their March 2, 2012 month report. In dark blue columns the AC capacity reported in MWac by VREG (status 2011: 1.358 MWac), in light-blue dashed "open" columns on the right side the roughly expected nominal DC capacity of the PV-generators in MWp (status 2011: 1.692 MWp). Assumed factor for obtaining the MWp values: AC times 1,1 (assumption: inverter AC capacity 10% under capacity of the PV-systems involved). Accumulated AC capacity for 2011 (dashed) will further grow as new monthly reports by VREG will become available in 2012. Also, the capacity for 2010 and earlier years still can be adjusted afterwards as VREG will still assign installations to those years (expected: minor volumes). Note that in 2011 (more precise: app. June-July), the barrier of 1 GWp accumulated nominal (DC) capacity of PV installations has been broken in Flanders (red line). The 1,5 GWp "barrier" may have already been passed end of 2011. For 2012 data are not yet encouraging. Only 9,3 MWac has been recorded, which brings accumulated capacity at 1.692 MWac, or 1.704 MWp DC for Flanders.

In this graph end of year (up till 2010) and preliminary 2011 accumulations have been shown. With all 12 month reports by VREG for 2011, the additions in the March 2 report in 2012 (with 58 MWac allocated to 2011), and the revisions there-in, accumulation of all registered installations already has become 1.538,3 MWac. With the addition of a meagre 9,3 MWac assigned to 2012, this adds up to 1.549,385 MWac. If one would take 1,1 as a conservative multiplying factor to calculate the possible DC generator power involved, this could amount to approximately 1.692 MWp end of 2011, and 1.704 MWp with present known 2012 additions (STC power of all PV-modules), as shown in the light blue "open" column on the right for end of 2011. Already far beyond the "magic" 1 GWp (DC) volume that only few other markets - in much larger countries - have reached, reaching out for the next magic barrier, 2 GWp. With an important note: this only concerns Flanders, the Walloon region and Brussels (much smaller partial Belgium markets) are not yet included in these numbers.

According to a recent prognosis by Apere (with preliminary estimates), these much smaller Belgium markets could have added 2011 volumes of 94 and 0,7 MWac, respectively (reaching accumulative capacities of 186 and 6,6 MWac, the Walloon market has doubled). The latest reviews of CWaPE (publication date end of Feb. 2012) show that new capacity in 2011 already could have been in the order of 107 MW (capacity there is given in kVA, kilovoltampère). Only a small volume, 7 MW, consists of installations >10 kVA.

2011 onwards - overview and details
The market segment >10 kWac (status March 1, 2012) could be analysed in detail. For the first time, in the January 31, 2011 issue, the long installation list (pdf of January 1, 2011 report containing 140 pages) was published as an Excel file. After reworking that file, it was much easier to compare that listing with the previous one and extract from the differences the growth data in the intermittent period. Regrettably, later reports again were pdf files, again later accompanied by Word documents. With some conversion steps these could be used in updated Excel files and a comparison with the previous list could be made. This remains, however, a laborious task demanding meticulous attention. There has been some confusion with the June 2011 report, for which no Word document was made available. Therefore, the pdf was screened by Polder PV to extract the new installations (as of August 2011 again Word documents have been published). Sometimes, this list is published asynchronously with the other actual data reported by VREG (e.g., the November 1, 2011 listing was made available only in the third week of that month).

The accumulated volume for >10 MWac installations ("registered entries") in the March 2, 2012 report consists of 3.382 registrations with an accumulation of 714,2 MWac of inverter power, and an average system (or "entry") size of 211 kWac.

Small system size/accumulation
Taking the accumulation of installations >10 kWac counted by me (and included in detailed spreadsheets), and subtracting that volume from the separate "accumulation for all renewable options" listing by VREG, it is possible to calculate the share of the installations up till 10 kWac ("small market segment"). In the March 2, 2012, report that segment seems to represent an accumulation of 176.710 installations with 835,1 MWac of installed capacity and an average system size of 4,73 kWac. Calculating with a factor kWp = kWac * 1,1, average STC generator (DC) size for this important category could be 5,20 kWp (26 modules of 200 Wp each on a family house).

Growth numbers PV-categories big and small
Reporting from the results from the last months ("installation" meaning: "entry registered in the VREG records"). Note that additions often are assigned to earlier years, up till now only a small portion of those additions has a date stamp in 2012 (!):

Growth rates in Flanders still remain much bigger than in the neighbouring Netherlands, that realised only approximately 11 MWp DC capacity of certified installations in 2010, and a volume of over 9 MWp of non-certified PV-systems in that year (total: 20,4 MWp grid-connected plus 0,3 MWp autonomous systems) according to data released by CBS / StatLine (summer of 2011; data accuracy questioned by Polder PV) in combination with earlier published numbers from CertiQ. For 2011 up till March 1, 2012 only the preliminary "certified" volume is known, 25,3 MWp. If 35% of new year volume has been realized without certification (comparable to the level of 2010), total year volume in 2011 could reach a level of 33,0 MWp, of which 11,6 MWp might be uncertified. This is only a fraction of the actual Flemish market volumes.

Market growth 2011
Since the Feb. 28, 2011 report several new data have become available in various new documents on the VREG website. One of the most interesting of these is the "adjusted" volume listing per year (since 1985), with the latest available data for the number of PV-installations newly installed in the year under consideration. And considered eligible for receiving green certificates by VREG. The original year of installation is the marker date in these documents. Later expansions of installations, a practice common with a growing number of PV-owners with appetite for more, are considered separately. If that expansion has an official installation date in a later year, it is assigned to that year.

For the evolution of the data in these lists (Feb. 28, up till March 2, 2012 reports), I constructed this detailed Excel table in which the "backlog" assignment per year can be followed in detail, for number of installations as well as for their accumulated new capacity:

(Graph/table above, CLICK on image for enlargement)
In this screendump of another spreadsheet a comparison is made between the listings of PV-installations assigned to their (first) year of installation as approved by VREG in the subsequent month reports (Feb. 28, Apr. 5, May 2, June 1, July 1, August 1, September 1, October 1, November 1, December 1, 2011, January 1, 2012, February, 1, and March 2, respectively, from right to left). In red numbers, changes are given with respect to the data provided in the previous month report. Sometimes even negative numbers result from that subtraction (e.g., for - small - PV-capacity changes in earlier years), possibly referring to removed or destroyed installations (or otherwise unknown factors).

However, the most significant changes are positive, and sometimes dramatic for the years 2009-2010 and, of course, 2011. For the last report (March 2, 2012), changes were again almost exclusively for the years 2009-2011: 267 kWac (2009), 8,000 MWac (2010) and again a considerable new volume of 58,145 MWac for 2011. Plus 0,06% (2009), 2,4% (2010), and 9,9% for 2011 with respect to the accumulated capacities in the previous month report. 2012 saw its first additions, still a very moderate new volume of 9,305 MWac. It remains to be seen how the market will develop, with another new degression of the value of green certificates already in place (Jan. 1, 2012).

From the detailed table follows that in total 75,7 MWac of "accumulated PV-capacity" has been added in the latest, March 2, 2012, report, with 4.947 new installations. And that the largest part of that volume, 58,1 MWac (3.096 installations), 76,8% of the new capacity reported by VREG, has been added to the previous volume of 589,6 MWac accumulated for 2011 in the February 1, 2012, report. The second largest volume has been assigned to 2012 (9,3 MWac or 12,3% of new volume in the latest report). The - minor - rest has been assigned to 2010 (8,0 MWac / 10,6%), and to 2009 (267 kWac / 0,35%). Some small changes (deleted capacities) have occurred in earlier years. Still, more installations can still be added afterwards, in particular to 2011, but even - in small volumes - to the years before. It is to be expected that growth volumes of 2011 will turn out to be even much stronger than shown in the present update. And, of course, that 2012 volume will rise sharply, with flat and low module prices and overcapacities in the global market.

Up till the March 2, 2012 report an accumulated new capacity of 647,8 MWac for 2011 has now already been documented. Which is a strong 88% over the new volume in 2010 now known. And already 43% more than the previous record year 2009. Hence, in contrast to what might haven been suggested before, 2011 has been an excellent year of PV-market growth for Flanders, despite the already implemented feed-in degressions. This has been regulated as a diminishing value of the green certificates obtained from the regional net managers by the PV-system owners, with degressions as per January 1, July 1, and October 1, 2011. Leaving only 9 Eurocent/kWh for installations >250 kWac, and, as per Aprl 1, 2012, 23 Eurocent/kWh for smaller installations.

Calculating with a factor 1,1 to obtain an estimated new DC capacity for Flanders in 2011 (713 MWp), this - still "preliminary" - volume for 2011 is probably almost a factor 35 times that of the accumulated new volume (20,4 MWp grid-connected) in the twelve months of 2010 in neighbouring Netherlands (which has a population 2,7 times bigger than that in Flanders, later CBS data not yet available). With more capacity to be added on the horizon.

Graphs Flanders PV market as compared with Netherlands.

With the January 1, 2011 report, it has turned out that the VREG registrations have resulted in a historical "marker" event: Flanders surpassed the ("official") 100 Wac/inhabitant accumulated installation milestone in that report (with later revisions bringing more capacity for earlier years that marker shifts to a point earlier in time). With respect to the March 2, 2012 report, with 1.549 MWac of registered capacity, the 6,25 million inhabitants of the Flanders region (exclusive of Brussels) each had 247,8 Wac virtually installed solar inverter capacity. Using a factor 1,1, this could result in a virtual, average, modern, powerful 273 Wp PV-module on the roof of each inhabitant. For preliminary data up till 2011, see the interactive figure given below. In this figure also the deplorable situation in the Netherlands becomes evident once again (green columns), with only approximately 6 Wp/inhabitant at the end of 2011. Even if the as of yet totally unknown "non-certified volume" for that year is taken into account as an optimistic, and speculative 20 MWp (total new volume for 2011 put at 45 MWp incl. 21 MWp certified/CertiQ, and including 10 MWp non-certified "Wijwillenzon" projects, capacity additions uncertain), accumulation end of 2011 would reach only 128 MWp, and in Netherlands only some 8 Wp per inhabitant would materialise. Only 3% of the per head volume in Flanders...

It is important to emphasize that Flanders has started only seriously in 2006 with PV market expansion as the first feed-in legislation was introduced in that year. Netherlands already has considerable experience with PV-installations since the end of the nineties of the previous century, with famous, internationally renowned (and very expensive) projects. However, stifling political desinterest, powerful, natural gas and nukes loving bureaucrats with their own "visions" of the energy future, and continuous sabotage by parties deeply involved in fossil-based energy generation has prevented succesful implementation of "working" legislation. As a result, Netherlands has fallen back onto the 14th position in accumulated volume of PV in EurObserv'ER statistics in 2010.

Accumulation up till 2011
The following graphs are updated with the data from the March 2, 2012 report. The numbers give the extrapolated MWp nominal capacity (hypothetical factor: MWp = MWac * 1,1) based on the published month reports by VREG. For Flanders, in particular the accumulation for 2011 still can change considerably. The Dutch data up till 2010 seem to be more or less "fixed" by CBS, but the webmaster of Polder PV has doubts concerning the accuracy of those data since most PV-systems in the Netherlands are never monitored and many thousands of small installations have never been officially registered. The data for 2010 apparently have not changed (CBS data update in September 2011).

2011: preliminary results (NL: 2011 only including known certified capacity)

ROLL-OVER IMAGE (above). Moving the mouse pointer away from the image shows the absolute grid-connected PV capacity accumulation per calendar year, as provided in monthly reports (note: most recent data can change afterwards). Note that capacities are given on a logarithmic Y-axis! Given directly in MWp by CertiQ in Netherlands, but calculated by Polder PV from the AC power registrations by VREG for Flanders by multiplying those data with a factor 1,1*. All installations certified for Flanders, but only a relatively small, app. 33% portion (end of 2010 over 29 MWp out of accumulated volume of 88 MWp) certified for the Netherlands. Status for 2011 is not yet known, only certified new capacity could be extracted from CertiQ data (also not yet certain): 21,5 MWp. Dutch data show "final" data up till 2010 (CBS year report, not changed later). VREG data for 2011 are also expected to be revised, as well as data for earlier years, although the latter will only change with small volumes.

Moving the mouse pointer over the image gives the calculated capacity accumulation per inhabitant ("per capita" or "pp."), also with a logarithmic Y-axis scale. Both images show strong growth of the Flanders market as compared to the sluggish development in the Netherlands in the last years - even under a so-called new "incentive" regime ("SDE"). Calculated accumulated grid-connected capacity for Flanders end of 2011, based on revised data in the March 2, 2012 report: approximately 1.692 MWp of nominal (STC) capacity (1.538 MWac accumulated AC power). A roughly estimated 16 times as much as the capacity that might have accumulated for grid-connected PV-systems end of 2011 in the Netherlands (exclusive not yet known uncertified installations for that year).

Accumulation 2011
In the next, mouse-directed roll-over image progress in 2011 is monitored, based on the accumulation data given by VREG in the separate month reports for all renewable electricity generating options. Since in those reports the older progress data (for previous months) are not updated, the first reports of the year always have "outdated" accumulation data. Hence, for the January 2011 accumulation the outcome (an estimated 737 MWp in published month report) is - considerably - lower than the estimated "updated end of 2010" value (see graph above: 980 MWp). Therefore, the results for the previous month reports in 2011 have been given in hatched columns. The final month gives the "preliminary actual status" derived from the most recent month report analyzed here, the one date-stamped March 2, 2012.

Note: Data for non-certified capacity in 2011-2012 in NL are unknown (not included!)

ROLL-OVER IMAGE (above). Moving the mouse pointer away from the image shows the DC grid-connected PV capacity (MWp) accumulation per month in 2011 (up till Jan. 2012), as provided in monthly reports (note: most recent data can change afterwards). Note that Y-axis is at a normal scale (previous graph is with logarithmic axis!). For Netherlands, the non-certified, not centrally-registered volume added in 2011 is as yet completely unknown. Only the installations officially registered at the CertiQ office are known and published on a monthly basis. These are exclusively PV-systems having a certified production meter ("bruto productie meter", for the old MEP and, in particular, SDE incentive regimes).

Poor market conditions Netherlands >> low growth rate PV
The Dutch (NL) PV capacity accumulation is uncertain. The last data for 2009 has been 62,5 MWp of grid-connected installations (CBS year report). The new StatLine data and the CBS year report 2010 give almost 20,4 MWp of new grid-connected volume for 2010 (based on a questionable once in a year "request for information" with only a selection of installation companies). Which brings the accumulated grid-connected volume at 82,7 MWp, end of that year. The accumulations for the months in 2011 given in the graph above are the 82,7 MWp mentioned plus the new certified additions by CertiQ in their continuing month reports. At the start of March 2012, still only 108,0 MWp of grid-connected PV-capacity has accumulated. With unknown "uncertified" MWp's missing since the start of 2011, that have never been registered in a central database anywhere. In view of developments on the "uncertified" market in Netherlands (possibly 35-45% of total market installations in 2010), finally the long-awaited threshold of 100 kWp of installed accumulated capacity might have been reached earlier in 2011. Although it is impossible to tell when exactly that long awaited "mile-stone" might have been reached (presumably somewhere in June or July)...

Note that apart from that segment, up till 2010 only 5 MWp of autonomous systems were accounted for in the Dutch CBS data (with an apparent decrease from max. of 5,3 MWp in 2007). These poorly known off-grid systems are not taken into account in my reports for the grid-connected market, which is dominant in all aspects.

Comparison of market development of grid-connected PV-installations in Flanders (blue) versus the known volume in the Netherlands (light green dashed columns) is shown in the graph above. The new "incentive" regime in the Netherlands (SDE, started on April 1 2008, in essence a combination of net metering [poorly documented in Law since July 2004, even in an upgrade earlier in 2011] and a variable feed-in allowance changing each year) is so bureaucratic and full of various restrictive market caps, that progressive, strong growth has remained an illusion. The fourth regime, SDE 2011, has depleted it budget at the beginning of 2012, but almost all capacity has yet to be realized. Including the 50 MWp "approved" PV projects that would receive only a few Eurocents subsidy per kWh produced on top of net metering. If that is possible, since this can only be achieved on premises with a connection capacity up till 3x 80 Ampères (this could mean that PV-systems cannot go far beyond 50 kWp to be able to comply for net metering).

From renewed calculations of published graphs (new calculations published here) only app. 6 MWp had been included in 2009, and approximately 11 MWp in 2010. Newly added certified volume in 2011 has been over 21 MWp (preliminary CertiQ data that might be adjusted). Most probably, this volume will increase slightly, since "permits" issued by Agentschap NL dictated a realisation date in 2011 for many installations, and realized volumes may be adjusted in a later year. However, many allowances will possibly never materialize for a number of reasons. Market conditions for photovoltaics in Netherlands remain deplorable, in particular for bigger projects.

From the start of the lottery that the SDE regime has been for PV, a growing number of system buyers did not even apply for the new SDE subsidies in the Netherlands because of stifling bureaucracy, and many uncertainties. An increasing number of people and companies have acquired uncertified, mostly unreported PV-systems and still do so in increasing numbers, triggered by ever lower module prices and increasing awareness for solar energy among Dutch civilians and smaller companies. In their year report for 2010, CBS published data resulting in approximately 20,7 MWp of capacity sold to installers in 2010, 20,4 of which would be grid-connected. That suggests that app. 46% of capacity sold did not enter the CertiQ database (year report: app. 11 MWp new in 2010). In addition, it must be stressed here that those installations do not have a certified production meter, and that the green electricity produced is probably not registered in any central register.

The new conservative, nuclear fission loving minister for economic affairs in the Netherlands, Maxime Verhagen, dictated end of November that in 2011 all state-induced incentives for "small-scale" photovoltaics (up till 15 kWac) would be completely abandoned (excluding the remaining, poorly regulated net metering), and that the economic basis for incentives for larger installations would turn out to make that a negative business case for almost all projects if no other financial incentives (mostly taxation profits: EIA, VAMIL, MIA) can be found... A plethora of - often short-lived - new "market initiatives" has emerged since then. The national PV-market is in total chaos, and an initiative for buying cheap Chinese modules and inverters (app. 13-14 MWp suggested early in 2011) by a foundation (Urgenda / Wijwillenzon.nl initiative 2010-2011) has met with strong criticism by - mostly experienced - installers. These installers feared that their hard-earned market shares are out-competed with heavily subsidized Chinese hardware dumped on the ever-small Dutch market. Some 6 MWp of that volume (for private house owners) would have been realized in a few months time, starting in May 2011. Actual realisation data of this initiative remain enigmatic, the initiative has been extended "for one more time", after which it would be stopped ("the market has to pick up the idea of collective import", so it is said, several "initiatives", each with its own peculiarities, followed soon...).

Since then, the "collective buyer" actions have exploded in the Netherlands, many in the eastern province of Overijssel giving a lot of extra incentives. On March 28, 2012, I have counted already 42 (!) collective buyer projects, varying from small to relatively big (e.g., "Zon Zoekt Dak" could generate over 10 MWp, if all reservations will lead to orders). All these projects will not deliver "certified" installations that should become known to CertiQ. Hence, it is possible that far more "uncertified" capacity will be added in 2012 than the SDE projects ("certified", and with "bruto productiemeter") might bring.

In contrast
Flanders has introduced an exceptionally attractive package of "Germany-like" (certainly not identical) kWh incentive for 20 years (up till 2009 45 eurocent/kWh, fixed tariff for existing installations, lowered to 35 eurocents/kWh in 2010, 33 eurocents/kWh up till end of June 2011 for installations <1 MW. As of July 1, 2011, the scheme encompasses 30 eurocents/kWh for installations <1 MW, and 24 eurocents/kWh for installations >1 MW. With further strong reductions as of October 1, 2011, and January 1, 2012, already decided upon, and, in the meanwhile, implemented as such. April 1 a next degression step will be implemented.

This, added with accompanying net-metering up till zero on a yearly basis for the smaller installations (max. 10 kW inverter output), and, for a long time, very interesting tax incentive measures (these have, finally, been abolished for smaller installations in the new year). The Flanders market started to grow like nuts in 2008-2009, as revealed by updates by VREG, showed slower, but still good growth in 2010. Even with the strong, step-wise degressions of the value of green certificates, market volume for 2011 is already much bigger than that in 2010. In 2011, "social cost" discussions (hotly contested by branche organisation PV-Vlaanderen) have eroded political will to further support photovoltaics forcefully. The social Minister Vandenbossche has openly "admitted" that PV in Flanders has grown too fast, that strong support for developing PV apparently has been "a mistake", and she has pleaded openly for more wind power on Flemish territory.

Flanders: PV has most capacity installed in renewable electricity

Flanders: distribution among PV-installations >10 kWac

One of the most interesting sections in the statistics reports by VREG is a detailed overview of the individual installations for the production of renewable electricity (for which green certificates are issued). Up till end of 2010, these data were published as - mostly - monthly pdf documents with a full list of all the installations. This list does not include the small (most PV) installations up till 10 kWac, but it gives a fascinating overview of spread in installation size and companies and a variety of institutions (and communities) involved, as well as their location (community with zip code). End of January 2011 for the first time this list was presented as an Excel file, facilitating update work. Regrettably, the publication format returned to pdf and, later, also Word documents, hampering quick analysis of changes between reports published. In particular checking out all changes in converted Word >>> Excel files is a lot of work, and has to be done with care.

Polder PV analysed the latest March 2, 2012 report (with a total of 3.382 entries on 256 pages...) in detail, extracted the relevant data for PV installations, and summarized the findings in detailed graphs below*. Update >10 kWac listing: March 2, 2012.

* Since data, in the past, have been - carefully - extracted from pdf documents, minor errors might have been included in the spreadsheets constructed by Polder PV. They will, however, have little effect on the evident trends published in the graphs published below.

(a) Accumulation of >10 kWac installation capacity and numbers

2011 - a year coming to an end

Accumulation of number of registrations and of total capacity of PV-installations (MWac) up till the last VREG report, March 2, 2012 (situation given in that report: end of February/start of March):

© Data: VREG; Graph: © Peter J. Segaar/Polder PV, Leiden (NL)

Adjusted numbers exlusive of Loghidden City
In the December 1, 2011 report, surprisingly a 23rd new large Katoen Natie Kallo (Kieldrecht) Loghidden City sub-project ("delivered" end of 2009) has been added (652 kWac "Ghendt Handling And Distribution NV"). A last entry by Katoen Natie had been given in the November 2011 update for a project in the Antwerp harbour region at the Noorderlaan directly north of the center (east-bank of Schelde), but that one, and also 3 later projects in that area (totalling 2,2 MWac), do not belong to the big "40 MW multi-site Katoen Natie project" that has been in the news for a - suprisingly - relative short time.

The previous last two entries for that famous 40 MW Katoen Natie project (biggest in Benelux, largest roof-top project world-wide) were published much earlier, in the April 5, 2011 report (see special for details about that project). Average size for the >10 kWac category is now 211 kWac per installation for all accumulated entries recorded by VREG in the March 2, 2012 listing. The following basic data for the >10 kWac category exclusive of the "special" single-site Katoen Natie Loghidden City logistics complex in the western harbour area outside of Antwerp (>27,9 MWac) could be extracted from that updated listing: 3.360 installations (or: separately registered portions of large installations) with a total of 686,3 MWac and an average system size of 204,3 kWac per installation.

Big Players and large installations registered
On top of Katoen Natie sub-projects discussed further below, several other big projects have been included in the VREG lists in 2011 and 2012. Many of them have already been realised in 2010.

In the January 1, 2011 report, a 1,012 MWac project bij Stas BV in Sint-Truiden was registered, and three portions of the Katoen Natie project in the Sint-Kruis-Winkel area bordering Desteldonk in the Gent sea terminal region (total of these 3: 4,755 MWac).

No further big (sub)projects appeared in the January 31, 2011 update. However, again two new projects emerged in the February 28, 2011 update. A 1,05 MWac project by Vergalle NV in the village famous for its Spring cycling classic (Ronde van Vlaanderen), Oudenaarde. And a new Seaport Terminals N.V. installation of 1,485 MWac on three warehouses at Mai Zetterlingstraat 70 in Desteldonk. Strangely, that is the same address as a previous entry of the same size under the same company name, with the same zip code, but allocated to Sint-Kruis-Winkel, at the same location just northeast of the Gent harbour region. On that same address 3 other entries of huge installations sized 1,1-2,2 MWac under daughter companies from Katoen Natie (Polymer NV, Sabeen NV) have been included by VREG (however, on other warehouses at this address). It is not yet clear if the "Seaport Terminals N.V." entries actually belong to the famous Katoen Natie project, or that it really is a separate company having done the same thing as their neighbours once they saw how lucrative the solar megabusiness was (in 2009-2010).

The April 5, 2011 report introduced 2 new Katoen Natie entries in the Desteldonk region of Gent (3,11 MWac), and 2 new installations by Invictus, one in Niel (Invictus Boom, 1,084 MWac), and one in Puurs (Invictus Puurs, 2,26 MWac). The latter project possibly has been (co-) financed by world's "most sustainable" bank, the Dutch Triodos Bank (having its roots in the antroposophic movement) via their Triodos Renewables Europe Fund in which the webmaster of Polder PV also has a small participation. The annual report 2010 of this fund claims a "Solar plant Puurs" of 2,3 MWp (apparently DC capacity reported) in its portfolio. Puurs lies just south of the river Schelde, and west of Willebroek, where sustainable bank competitor ASN Bank from the Netherlands co-financed a 2,6 MWp PV-project in conjunction with nuclear power plant co-owner Delta from the same country.

There has also been an upgrade of a WDP installation in Boom, adding almost 500 kWac to reach a total capacity of 1.911,4 kWac, while at the same time the long-time mysterious 3,6 MWac entry for Serge Hardy Lanaken (for which not one project detail has been published) has been deleted from the VREG records. It apparently never materialized, pressing further questions concerning the validity of a "VREG-registered" status of (large) PV-installations. Of course, all these tiny, but crucial details have an accumulated impact on the reliability of the PV-market statistics "extracted" from the VREG records (the only "reliable" and verbose dataset publicly available for Flanders).

The most surprising additions to the >1 MWac list however, were two entries for a Zonnecentrale Overpelt NV, 6,20 and 6,22 MWac in the April 5 update, that each outstripped the "former ground-mounted champion" Heusden-Zolder system of 4,704 MWac (Flemish province of Limburg) that received its first green certificates on December 19, 2008. Apparently there has been a mistake in the April 5 list, since the "6,20 MWac" block could not be found anymore in the May 2, 2011 update. An internet search revealed that a single block of 7,6 MWp (DC:AC ratio 1,22) is built on the premises of metal producer Nyrstar in Overpelt (see photo and info). This big PV-plant has been formally accepted by VREG on December 28, 2010, got its first green certificates on Jan. 14, 2011, and is reported to be connected directly to the high-voltage ELIA (DNB) power grid (not a surprise given the fact that Nyrstar is a metal producer using huge amounts of electricity). Overpelt is situated in the Flemish province of Limburg alongside the Zuid Willemsvaart canal in a region bordering the southern province Noord Brabant in Netherlands.

In the June 1, 2011 month report a large number of new installations were registered, including for the >10 kWac category. 8 installations bigger than 1 MWac were reported, with an accumulated AC power of 10,8 MWac. The largest has been a 1.673 kWac installation by Maasland Groefuitbating NV, SW of Opglabbeek (in Flanders province of Limburg). This company seems to be related to Group Machiels that has also been involved in several other big projects, such as the huge 7,6 MWp Nystar project in Overpelt.

The July 1, 2011 report introduced three installations in the biggest category, one with exactly 1 MWac, Orka Power NV in Bornem (SW. of Antwerp), that apparently has been rapidly sold to ING Equipment Lease Belgium NV, as this was the name of the project holder in the August 1 update for this installation, under the secondary name Orka Puurs NV. Two further >1 MWac installations were reported. One for the project developer Solarpulse III NV, 1,022 MWac in the vicinity of Bornem, Temse on the north bank of the river Schelde. And a 1,0764 MWac installation from Stas NV in Sint-Truiden, SW. of Hasselt (province of Limburg). Stas has already 5,5 MW of PV-projects in their portfolio shown in the VREG data.

The September 1, 2011 update reported a large contingency of bigger installations. Most notably, 6 installations bigger than 1 MWac were introduced: (1) 1,102 MWac Concorde NV Wervik in Houthulst (West Flanders north of Ieper), (2) 1,173 MWac Mechelse Veilingen project in Sint-Katelijne-Waver south of Antwerp, (3) 1,334 MWac Fabricom NV in Dendermonde (East Flanders), (4) 1,4904 MWac Suncop II NV in Hingene (near Puurs, SW. of Antwerp). Scaling further upwards, (5) the 4,05 MWac SPS FIN BVBA - SPS Solar Tunnel (Infrabel) project on top of the HSL high-speed train tunnel along the E16 motorway between Schoten and Brasschaat, east of Antwerp (Enfinity project with 16.000 PV-modules). And, finally (6) 4,536 MWac Zonnecentrale Tongeren NV, a huge project with PV-roofs by the famous Group Machiels that developed this massive "protection for parked new cars" on one quarter of the 142.000 m² large premises of the Hödlmayr parking in the industry park Overhaem in Tongeren (Flemish Limburg province). Installer is the famous company IZEN, who claims a yearly yield of 4.114 MWh from the 21.600 PV modules and 312 installed top-class Refusol inverters (specific yield expected: 907 kWh/kWp.year). An interesting and informative video made for IZEN can be observed on Youtube (this link).

^^^ Orka's majestic Harelbeke 5,004 MWp project with 17.871 Suntech STP 280-24/Vd modules and SMA Tripower 17000TL inverters, realised 2011. In the VREG October 1, 2011 update, the first three segments with a total AC capacity of 3,094 MWac were introduced in the >10 kWac listing. In the January 1, 2012 report, 5 subprojects were included by VREG with a total volume of 4,403 MWac on the record. © Orka (Melle, Belgium, formerly known as Invictus). Photo from project page on website Orka

In the October 1, 2011 listing, again a suprising 9 installations larger than 1 MWac materialised (in addition to a lot of PV-systems in the 500-1.000 MWac range). These were: 1,224 MWac Gobo Europark 27 in
Lanaken, 1,5 MWac Reynaers Alumunium (Duffel), 1,5 MWac Van Moer Group NV (Zwijndrecht), 1,55 MWac ING Equipment Lease Belgium NV - Sun Invest III NV (Desselgem), 1,613 MWac Karel Mintjens NV (Malle), 1,628 MWac Masabi BVBA (Erembodegem), 2,805 MWac Bruno Invest BVBA (Munsterbilzen), and 3 MWac SOTIK BVBA in Schaffen. The largest new installation reported, was, however, part of one of the many ING Equipment Lease Belgium NV projects. Three different entries for that large flat roof installation are included in this report (1x 986, and 2x 1.054 MWac), adding up to 3,094 MWac. That is not yet the total volume realized there, since the Orka Harelbeke NV project in the city with the same name (NE of Kortrijk, West-Flanders), is reported to have a size of 5,004 MWp (nominal DC power, 17,871 Suntech modules of 280 Wp). officially installed on the 30th of June, 2011. One day prior to the first law-enforced strong degression of the value of the green certificates for solar electricity... In a personal communication with an employee of the system builder, Dutch (Deurne, NB) Oskomera Solar Power Solutions, I was later informed (begin November 2011) that only 3 MWp had initially been connected to the grid. The rest is awaiting extension of the grid capacity, which should be realised end of 2011...

The November 1, 2011 update had less larger installations, but there were 3 PV-entries >1 MWac: (1) a somewhat surprising new Katoen Natie project, 1,02 MWac, under the "flag" Katoen Natie Bulkterminals NV, this time in the centre of Antwerpen (east-bank of river Schelde, see further below). (2) a 1,1 MWac Prosolar Invest 2 NV installation in the northern harbour area of Gent. This biggest addition sofar brings total "Prosolar" portfolio in Gent on 1,77 MWac (6 entries). Finally (3) a Dufsun PV-system with a size of 1,6274 MWac in Duffel (prov. Antwerp, along Nete Canal).

In the update of December 1, 2011, only one big installation appeared, a 2,34 MWac installation by ING Equipment Lease Belgium NV, built by Orka (former Invictus) in Eindhout (prov. Antwerp) along the Albertkanaal.

To end the year in this preliminary overview, the January 1, 2012 report came up with another spectacular 13 entries with sizes over 1 MWac (in addition to 35 new entries in the category 500-1.000 kWac, 46 new entries between 250 and 500 kWac, and 83 new entries between 100 and 250 kWac):

• 1,029 MWac EFY Assets Belgium 3 bvba project in Willebroek (part of a 2,74 MWac project on-site, there is another 825 kWac installation in the same portfolio);
  
  
• 1,054 MWac addition to the huge 5 MWp Harelbeke installation under portfolio by ING Equipment Lease Belgium NV - Orka Harelbeke NV. Total size in this project now: 4,403 MWac inverter capacity (5 separate entries);
  
  
• 1,122 MWac new Katoen Natie project under the daughter company name Ghendt Handling And Distribution NV in Antwerp;
  
  
• A 1,14 MWac SEnS Solar Belgie BVBA project in Olen (prov. Antwerp along Albert Kanaal). Part of portfolio of 2,415 MWac (4 projects on different locations). Another new entry, a 1,394 MWac project in Boom south of Antwerp, belongs to a second SEnS Solar portfolio ("2 bvba"), which already has 4,123 MWac in accumulation in - now - 6 subprojects on different locations;
  
  
• Another 1,2 MWac project by ING Equipment Lease Belgium NV, this time under the Sun Invest - LVD flag, in Gullegem, NW. of Kortrijk;
  
  
• 1,257 MWac project by a newcomer, Domo Vastgoed, in Sint-Niklaas, East-Flanders;
  
  
• Another newcomer, Pivo NV, received its "entry" in the VREG database with a 1,491 MWac project in Vichte east of Kortrijk (West-Flanders), they also realised a 399 MWac installation in Oostende in the same report;
  
  
• In Waregem, a 1,59 MWac installation was reported for Renson Ventilation NV 1. With the adjacent 990 kWac project that site now has 2,58 MWac in the VREG records;
  
  
• Famous Enfinity can now find their first new Balta entry under 1,66 MWac Enfinity 12 CVBA - Balta Weaving in Waregem in the VREG data. This is part of three entries accumulating to a total size of 3,09 MWac. Carpet weaving company Balta also has a roof-lease contract with Belfuture in Waregem, which is 4 MWac (three separate entries). Finally, in Tielt, the company has a contract with the "solar" branche of Dutch energy company Eneco in a project consisting of 5 entries under the label "Eneco Solar Vlaanderen 3 - Balta (ITC)" with 2,969 MWac. In total, the 11 "Balta" sub-projects accumulate to a size of 10,059 MWac.
  
  
• A "unique" entry is found under the denomer Solar Finance NV, which realised a 1,66 MWac project on Brucargo, Brussels Airport. Since that national airport is not situated on Brussels soil, but instead lying north-east of Zaventem in the Flemish province Brabant, it is included in the VREG statistics. It is, however, a very special case, since the airport has its own net manager. Hence: this entry is the sole separate entry in the Flemish PV market that has been assigned separately to "BIAC / DistributieNetBeheerder Brussels Airport (DNBBA)", see my separate graph with the updated net manager statistics... The installation, with 7.220 monocrystalline PV-modules, would generate 1.500 MWh/year, 1% of total electricity consumption on-site (news by Brussels Airport, photo on this site). The Genk-based investment company already has 6,319 MWac of PV-investments (16 projects on 13 locations, listed by VREG).
  
  
• A final entry for another ING Equipment Lease Belgium nv project, 3,239 MWac ISP1-RG nv / Wilmarsdonck in Antwerp. ING's ISP1 RG NV portfolio now has 5,944 MWac in 7 entries on 6 locations in the VREG database.
  
  
• Finally, the biggest new entry, under the name Ed.Proj. Epsilon NV (newcomer wit office located in Hasselt according to VREG list), realised a 3,3792 MWac big installation in Hooglede NW. of Roeselare (West-Flanders). This is most probably the 4 MWp project with 20.944 PV-modules on the flat roof of Golfkarton Soenen (corrugated carton producer), realised by project developer Edison Energy (link to project list with small photo, the complex can be found on Bing Maps under this link).

4 MWp PV-installation on flat roof of corrugated carton producer Soenen in Hooglede near Roeselare (West Flanders). A project realised by Edison Energy under the flag Ed.Proj. Epsilon NV (entry appeared as an 3,38 MWac installation in the VREG January 1, 2012 update). >>> Photo © Edison Energy (project page)

The first 2012 month report, the February 1, 2012 update revealed new entries > 1 MWac: 1,428 MWac PVZG_Solarrise BVBA - Associated Weavers project, which has an accompanying 924 kWac project. The 2,352 MWac project is to be found in the bilingual village of Ronse/Renaix (East Flanders). A 1,5 MWac installation by Zandvoorde Green Invest CVBA - Dumoulin is to be found in Roeselare (West Flanders); it is accompanied by a 576 kWac (roof) entry under the same project label, making it a 2,076 MWac project. Than, also in Roeselare, there is an 2,12 MWac installation by Greentile bvba - Aldi, accompanied by a 391 kWac entry, combining this to a 2,511 MWac installation. Earlier, on an Aldi premises in Erpe-Mere, a 840 kWac project was reported under the same Greentile umbrella. Finally, the biggest new installation entry in this report has been a large 2,46 MWac project with "super investor" ING Equipment Lease Belgium NV at the premises of Kuehne & Nagel in Geel (province of Antwerp).

March 2, 2012 update included several >1 MWac projects: 1,224 MWac Ecorus Invest project in Mol (eastern part of prov. Antwerp), 1,387 MWac SolarPulse VI NV in Alken (Prov. Limburg), 1,428 MWac Solarrise BVBA - Associated Weavers in Ronse/Renaix (Oost Vlaanderen), the second of a monster project already including a 924 kWac installation, hence total volume now 2,352 MWac. Furthermore, three large installations for Aldi under the Greentile project (now encompassing 5 locations with 6,6 MWac): 1,5 MWac in Heusden-Zolder (Limburg), 1,76 MWac in Zemst (Vlaams Brabant), and a 2,12 MWac installation in Roeselare (West Vlaanderen). Finally, a 1,564 MWac Futech BVBA installation in Heusden-Zolder, and two large ING Equipment Lease projects: 1,93 MWac Green-Bel - Cras in Waregem, and the biggest, ISP1-RG NV/VMW in Kluizen (ING's "ISP1-RG" portfolio now contains 10,33 MWac).

The long list shown above clearly indicates that many investors with some money to spare were very keen on realising big projects in 2011 (none has its date of approval in 2012). It remains to be seen how enthousiastic they will be in 2012, under extremely restrictive feed-in conditions and green certificates whose value has dwindled to "only" 9 Eurocents/kWh for installations >250 kWac...

The enormous Katoen Natie project remains, of course, by far the biggest - roof mounted - installation in the Benelux, see the special further below.

(b) New installation capacity per month or in the VREG reporting period

An example of the new capacity per category is given below for the busy month, May 2011.

© Data: VREG; Graph: © Peter J. Segaar/Polder PV, Leiden (NL)

(c) New installation capacity per day in a specific VREG reporting period

In the final graph of this section the per day graph for the last period reviewed by VREG is shown. The graph shows the data for February 2012 (29 days):

© Data: VREG; Graph: © Peter J. Segaar/Polder PV, Leiden (NL)

Graph legend b and c: grid connected systems >10 kWac only; light green = number of new registrations (left Y-axis); light orange = new added capacity (MWac or kWac) in the period under consideration, per category. Graph (b) shows the total capacity and/or number of registrations in the given example. Graph (c) gives the capacity and/or number of installations per day in the last month, as calculated from the data reported by VREG.

In the last graph it becomes clear that in February 2012 again a considerable volume of new capacity has entered the VREG database, in particular for the larger installation sizes > 100 kWac. Due to some very big new installations, the market segment >1.000 kWac has been popular, 485 kWac on average reported per day in that month.

Special: Katoen Natie 40 MW

For the reported multisite project Katoen Natie 40 MW on 4 locations in Flanders, parts of which for the first time were incorporated into the VREG statistics in the July 2010 update, new portions were added in later updates, starting with August 2010. This huge project (cost: € 166 million), partly financed by loans from Dexia Bank and another, unnamed bank, is cut into a lot of smaller pieces between 0,21 and 2,22 MWac under various (new) company names. Most probably for financial reasons (optimal taxation issues related to the green certificates earned?). Up till the October 2010 update, only one installation was mentioned under the identifiable name "Katoen Natie Terminals NV", a second segment under that name followed in the November 2010 update, but all the other projects have been filed under different sub-company names (and in a later stadium designated as such by VREG in their installation records).

Two new entries appeared in the Jan. 1, 2011 update, under the location Sint-Kruis-Winkel (together 3,27 MWac), for Katoen Natie daughters Polymer NV and Sabeen NV. These are at the same installation location address for which already a "Desteldonk" entry was known, accumulating to 4,95 MWac for these 3 subprojects in the sea harbour region of northern Gent. In addition, a fourth entry was filed under the name Seaport Terminals NV (1,485 MWac) on that date, with Sint-Kruis-Winkel as location, and a fifth entry under the same name and with identical size in the Feb. 28, 2011 report, again with Desteldonk as location (all: same zip-code and same address...). The latter two are on exactly the same address, on different logistics halls (numbers 17-19 and 19-21; the three Katoen Natie entries here have been realized on halls 14-16, 26-30 and 36-39), but it could not yet be established if Seaport Terminals N.V. is a daughter company of Katoen Natie or not (VREG does not give a positive clue in this direction). As for now, the Seaport Terminals entries are not considered as part of the "Katoen Natie" super project.

Also note that one of the smaller (246,3 kWac) "Kallo (Kieldrecht)" segments has been earmarked with an address that is on the eastern side of the Vrasene Dock, more to the southwest of the Loghidden City complex (Land van Waaslaan Haven 1168/Saeftinghe Loods 5). So actually this is a separate location. Still no "hits" appear to have been included for the so-called Euroterminal of Katoen Natie to the southwest of that separate Vrasene Dock, that has once been said to be part of the whole 40 MW project.

Surprisingly, another sub-installation on the Kallo (Kieldrecht) Loghidden City terminal has been added in the VREG list of December 1, 2011 (652 kWac). That VREG report now lists 22 portions (27,92 MWac) for the Kallo-Kieldrecht location on the Schelde West-Bank (not on Antwerp soil, but nearby on the premises of the province of East-Flanders). In addition to this, now at least 5 portions for the Katoen Natie logistics terminal in the Desteldonk/Sint-Kruis-Winkel area have been identified by VREG as belonging to the Katoen Natie project in the harbour region northeast of Gent (also on soil of East Flanders; 8,12 MWac). The relation of the 2 Seaport Terminals entries in that area with the Katoen Natie project is not certain (therefore not included). Finally, 2 installations in the Katoen Natie terminal area of Genk in the Flemish province of Limburg in the northeastern part of Belgium are also reported with a total size of 2,15 MWac under the prozaic (and confusing) company name "Ghendt Handling And Distribution NV" (which has its main office in Desteldonk/Gent...).

Taking all together, a total capacity of 38,43 MWac for the multisite Katoen Natie project has now been registered with VREG and positively identified as such belonging to that project. Note that this volume (possibly 42,3 MWp?? if DC:AC ratio of the installations would be 1,1) might lie even beyond the 40 MW announced as early as end of 2009. If this is true, it seems that the whole superproject now finally has been included in the VREG database.

Trina Solar, the Chinese module producer, claimed to have delivered to system builder Invictus approximately 180.000 modules, types TSM-PC05 220W and TSM-PC05 230W for the whole project (this document, that wrongly suggests that all the modules would only have gone to the Antwerp region). If half of both types would be used for a tongue-in-cheek calculation, this would mean on average 180.000 x 0,225 = 40.500 kW. The "40 MW" often quoted apparently must be the actual nominal DC generator capacity. Hence, most probably 40 MWp. If the 38,43 MWac mentioned above turns out to be the "definitive" capacity registered with VREG, the ratio DC power to (max.) AC inverter power appears to be 1,05:1. A frequently mentioned ratio [10% more DC power than AC power] is 1,1:1).

From the data so far extracted from the VREG records, it is crystal clear that the Kallo-Kieldrecht location, named "Loghidden City" by Katoen Natie has, with its 22 portions now registered by VREG, 27,92 MWac of capacity. Since the VREG report for July 2010 it already is officially the largest realized "single site" (but multi-roof) PV project in the Benelux, with decreasing possibility that more volume will be added in coming VREG reports. Note that Katoen Natie's Euroterminal, also in the West-Bank area of Antwerp's huge harbour region extending into East-Flanders, has not been specifically mentioned by VREG.

More appetite for Big Solar
Surprisingly, long after the April 5, 2011 report by VREG, in the November 1, 2011 update a new entry sized 1,02 MWac was published under the flag "Katoen Natie Bulkterminals NV, Noorderlaan 399". However, although it clearly is a new installation of the Katoen Natie holding, this specific PV-system is not part of the huge project mentioned above, since it is Katoen Natie's first (identifiable) installation on soil of Antwerp itself, on the east-bank of the Schelde. Apparently the management has a good appetite for solar installations on their huge warehouse roofs spread among many locations, since their original super project went on-line.

In the January 1, 2012 update, three additional "Katoen Natie" entries in Antwerp have been incorporated in the VREG listing. They represent two different locations, with a total installed power of 2,277 MWac. Two of those entries, Werf En Vlasnatie NV (Katoennatie), were "fused" under a single entity in the February 1, 2012 report.

Note that, because of the different locations of all these Katoen Natie PV-installations, the management of this large logistics company has to deal with at least 4 different net managers: Intergem for the Loghidden City terminal, Imewo for the Gent / Desteldonk / Sint-Kruis-Winkel segments, Inter-Energa for the two installations in Genk. And, finally, IVEG for the new entries on Antwerp soil (included in the November 1, 2011, and January 1, 2012 reports). It is expected that a lot of paperwork has been generated because of the complex segmentation of larger installations, and the mostly troublesome dealings with Flemish net managers that have many problems with rather antique infrastructure.

Katoen Natie line-up
One of the interesting new data since publication of the Jan. 31, 2011 Excel spreadsheet on the VREG website is the fact that per installation the official installation date is show, as well as the date on which the first green certificates have been awarded to the project (actually the final step in the whole "official procedure" for PV with the VREG administration). With these data it could be shown that for the now known 30 installations for the Katoen Natie super project, a time span of less than 4 months lapsed between the official installation dates for the first (Sep. 4, 2009), and the last sections identified (8 sections on Dec. 31, 2009). But that over 14 months have lapsed between the dates on which the first green certificates issued for the first (Sep. 3, 2009) and previous final two sections (November 16, 2010) incorporated in the April 5, 2011 VREG update. I summarised the findings in the following 2 new graphs.

^^^ Official installation dates for the segments of the Katoen Natie project as registered in the VREG records. More than one sub-installation can be assigned to a particular date, in that case total capacity for all segments is added on that date. The very first segment ("Blokveld 25, Katoen Natie Terminals, Loghidden City complex") is dated Sep. 3, 2009. The final 8 sections for that year acquired the VREG date-stamp December 31, 2009, less than 4 months later, and just in time to claim the 45 Eurocent/kWh green certifcate value for 20 years. Several other sections were reported in early 2010. Note that inverters may not have yet been installed on that date, but that they might have been installed in time in the formally accepted "allowance" period up till March 1, 2010, and that the installations could have been fully approved as "delivered" at that time, able to claim for the high 2009 green certificate value of 45 Eurocent/kWh. See next graph for the dates on which first green certificates were issued for the separate sub-installations of Katoen Natie (4 different locations) by VREG. Graph updated with December 1, 2011 report (one new entry).

^^^ Graph showing issue dates for the first GSC's awarded per sub-project of Katoen Natie (38,4 MWac of 40 MW issued, status December 1, 2011. This is most probably the date of official grid-connection, and physical start of feeding produced solar electricity into the net. Since several sub-projects have been issued on the same day, the capacities for these portions have been added and shown in one coloured column on that day. Three main locations and one additional small one could be identified up till now: (1) The major complex, Loghidden City in Kallo (Kieldrecht) on the Schelde West Bank (East Flanders), yellow, Genk (Province of - Flemish - Limburg), blue, the Gent harbour region (East Flanders), allocated to two different location names, Desteldonk and Sint-Kruis-Winkel, orange. And, finally, a small separate logistics terminal in the Waasland Haven (southwest of the huge Loghidden City complex), green. Note that there is a rather "late" Loghidden City terminal entry registered on the third of Februay 2011 (this one has been reported as late as in the December 1, 2011 VREG update). Possibly there may have been problems with the capacity of the local grid. It is known that grid connection of other large projects may take place much later than the termination date of the installation activities (e.g.: Orka's Harelbeke 5 MW project also had problems with local grid capacity, which had to be upgraded by the local net manager, Infrax-West). Indicated in numbers in the graph are either the capacities of single sub-projects per issue date, or the accumulation of the capacities if different sub-projects were issued on the same date (per location). The total of sub-projects positively identified as belonging to Katoen Natie amounted to 30, 22 of them for Loghidden City (and a separate small sub-project lying very close in the Waasland Haven). Total capacities identified for the three main locations are indicated in the legend. The red line indicates the start of the new incentive scheme beyond the "transition period" allowed by the Flemish authorities. If installations had the modules in place end of December 2009 (with report of preliminary approval), and were able to have the PV-system completed with inverters end of February 2010, they would be eligible for 45 Eurocents/kWh feed-in tariff for 20 years. If that dead-line had not been realized in time, the installation will only fetch 35 Eurocents/kWh for 20 years (if installed completely in 2010). Also all other installations not having the modules in place end of 2009, and newly realized in 2010, will get that much lower (but still highly interesting) premium. As per January 2011 new degressions have been decided, starting with 33 Eurocent/kWh on that date (no transition period). These considerations do not apply to the Katoen Natie project, since all sub-installations apparently have passed the "transition period" without problems, and can apply for 45 Eurocent/kWh for 20 years. Katoen Natie had also a new project registered on the East Bank of the river Schelde (Nov. 1, 2011), a 1,02 MWac project in the central harbour of Antwerp (not included here). There are also other bigger projects in the Gent harbour region, with company names very similar to some of those used for the Katoen Natie super project. However, as of now the companies mentioned have not been positively identified as belonging to the Katoen Natie holding. Note that the time-scale in this graph is different from that used in the previous graph for the "Date of official installation".

Five installations have been registered as such in the Desteldonk / Sint-Kruis-Winkel / Gent region (e.g., Mai Zetterlingstraat 70, see photo of the complex on the Katoen Natie website), as well as two on the Katoen Natie logistics terminal in the industrial area bordering the Albert Kanaal south of Genk in the Flemish province of Limburg. On the latter complex, 2,15 MWac has been registered in 2 segments for the company Ghendt Handling and Distribution N.V. This website shows that this company also is part of the large Katoen Natie holding. The 40 MW project was "claimed" as such at the end of 2009 by the principles of Katoen Natie in a few short press communications and television broadcasts. It still is not definitively clear if the "40 MW" claimed refers to AC capacity, or possibly to the MWp nominal capacity of the PV-modules involved (source: Trina Solar, China). See also the photograph below.

Photo © 2010 DigitalGlobe, Geo Eye, Aerodata International Surveys / Google Maps project (this location).
See also below for link to more recent, spectacular photo's on Bing Maps!

Photo 1 - The first Katoen Natie terminal buildings filled with Trina Solar modules were appearing in Google Maps satellite photo's midway 2010, such as the one above. Three halls had been completed already at the time that this photo was taken. It shows the southwestern part of the huge "Loghidden City" complex in the Kallo/Kieldrecht harbour region northwest of Antwerp on East-Flanders province soil (Schelde West Bank). Other halls appeared to have already mounting frames in some areas, but most halls did not show any roof-related activity yet. However, a company video published later by installer Invictus shows that at least this "Loghidden City" complex is mostly filled with crystalline PV-modules.

Note the lorries on the photo to get an impression of the enormous scale of this logistics complex. It is also evident from the satellite pictures that the halls, and also the modules themselves are oriented in arrays slightly south from SW. This has only slight impact on physical production, not deviating much from a pure south orientation. The project as a whole (at least three different locations) should produce in the order of 35 GWh/year according to press releases. This could indicate an expected specific production of only 875 kWh/kWac.year. This might be a rather conservative estimate.

The first partial projects of this site ("Kallo/Kieldrecht" location) have been reported by VREG in the August 1, 2010 report (8 segments on this location and one in Gent/Desteldonk, total of these: 15,37 MWac); more sections followed in later VREG reports.

New photo's with (almost) full PV-project portfolio of Katoen Natie! (added November 25, 2011)

Bing Maps has very nice and sharp new satellite photo's of the Loghidden-City Terminal project on the Schelde West-Bank: here!

And also of the Euroterminal area further west in the Waasland Haven area: here!

And also on the Gent harbour area projects in Desteldonk / Sint-Kruis-Winkel (note also other logistics firm entries in VREG database not yet conclusively connected with the Katoen Natie holding have been realised in this area!). Just zoom in and wander around...: here!

And on this aerial view you can visit the two Katoen Natie entries in the industry area of Genk in the Flanders province Limburg, far away from the previous two locations...: here!

Flanders: distribution among PV-installations < 10 kWac
Installaties kleiner of gelijk dan 10 kWac in Vlaanderen: verdeling

Once the number and capacity of the accumulated >10 kWac installations is known from the separate list for that category (previous paragraph), it is easy to obtain the data for the smaller PV-systems in Flanders since VREG also publishes a list ("Productie-installaties waarvoor groenestroomcertificaten worden toegekend") with accumulations of the capacities and numbers for all renewable electricity generating installations. By subtracting the volumes for the >10 kWac category PV-systems from the accumulation given in that list for all (PV-)installations in the same period, the data for the remaining < 10 kWac installations can be calculated. This results in the two following graphs. First total volumes and their distribution are shown for photovoltaics.

Note that, as of December 2011, I have included a new installation size segment >250 up till 500 kWac. This is the result of the fact that VREG has started an overall overview of realised capacities (separately published Excel file), in which they discriminate between installations up till 250 kW[ac], and larger installations.

Relative contributions of market segments in photovoltaics Flanders
In this graph in the left "100 percent column" the share of the categories discriminated by me (all installations up till 10 kWac, and 8 subcategories larger than 10 kWac) is shown for the numbers of installations (for the largest systems sometimes separate entries of fragments, such as Katoen Natie's Loghidden City: one complex, 22 entries). 100% is 180.092 installations (March 2, 2012 report). From that column it is crystal clear that the <10 kWac segment of the market is the unparallelled contributor, with 98,1% of all PV-installations (or segments) installed.

A very different outcome shows up when the installed capacity is taken as the discriminating value, as depicted in the right "100 percent column" with stacked categories ("MWac"). In that column stack, 100% is 1.549,4 MWac. Here, the <10 kWac segment only claims 53,9% of accumulated installed (AC) capacity, and 46,1% is claimed by installations each having a capacity larger than 10 kWac. Of those, the biggest "total capacity contributor" is the >1.000 kWac segment with 11,8% of accumulated photovoltaic AC capacity. The next three segments have comparable shares: 9,6% (>500 - 1.000 kWac), 10,0% (>250 - 500 kWac), and 8,7% (>100 - 250 kWac). The contribution of the market segments >10 up till 100 kWac is much smaller (>50 up till 100 kWac: 4,0%) to negligible.

Note that VREG does not further discriminate any subcategories in the "small" market segment up till 10 kWac. Hence, no further "split" can be made in the white column parts in this graph.

Relative contributions of PV-systems in the >10 kWac category
In the largest market segment >10 kWac, I also distinguish between subcategories, and the contribution of those in the installed volume for only that market segment (hence: not for all PV-installations) has been visualized in the next graph (note again that subcategory >100 - 500 kWac has been split in two different categories, >100 - 250, and >250 - 500 kWac as of the December 1, 2011 update on Polder PV).

The same scheme is applied here as in the previous graph. For "100 percent" now the accumulated volume for only the >10 kWac market segment is used (number of installations and inverter capacity, respectively).

In the left column, shares of the 8 subcategories now discriminated by me have been shown with respect to the number of installations (or installation segments separately registered by VREG). 100% is here 3.382 registered entries (sometimes representing portions of bigger installations). The stacked column shows dominance of the >50 up till 100 kWac subcategory (25,0%), closely followed by the >100 up till 250 kWac subcategory (23,9%). Shares are relatively well spread among subcategories, however with minor contributions of the the 2 largest subcategories, and the smallest >10-15 kWac market segment in this overview.

Since VREG has started a new list with distribution among gross system sizes of up till 10 kWac, >10 up till 250 kWac, and systems > 250 kWac, I included the percentages for the latter two "VREG categories" in the market for large PV-installations >10 kWac: 78,2% of the >10 kWac market is in the range >10 up till 250 kWac, and the remaining 21,8% is made up of larger PV-systems, if one considers number of installations.

In the right column, again accumulated capacity (MWac) for each subcategory is the discriminating feature in relation to accumulated installed capacity for the >10 kWac market segment. 100% for this column stack is 714,2 MWac. Here a slightly different picture emerges as with number of installations. The biggest category > 1.000 kWac leads with an accumulated capacity of 25,6% of the >10 kWac market, followed by 21,6% for the > 250 - 500 kWac segment, and 20,7 and 18,8% for the segments > 500 - 1.000 kWac, and > 100 - 250 kWac, respectively. The top 3 subcategories (>250 kWac per installation) together make up 67,8% of total installed/registered capacity in the >10 kWac market segment*, the rest (32,1% of capacity) is distributed among the lower size categories. For comparison, please note that installations >100 kWp were not allowed under the highly restrictive SDE "incentive" regime in the bordering Netherlands up till 2010. Besides: for the exceptionally unattractive SDE 2011 regime, only few plans for installations larger than 150 kWp have been given green light for an uncertain realisation traject with subsidy that amounts only 3,5 Eurocent/kWh in 2012 on top of net metering (if possible)...

* The high volume claimed for he biggest installation categories has been putting extra pressure on Flemish authorities to decrease incentives, since only the larger companies are able to buy these sizeable systems, while the citizens will be confronted with higher electricity prices to pay for all the solar (and other "renewable") kWh's fed into the grid...

Average of newly registered installations per day

The listings for all new PV-installations (accumulation of numbers and nominal capacity only), and the one for the individual >10 kWac PV-systems are published separately by VREG. The publication date of these updates has been slightly different for some months in earlier reports: hence, the span of time covered by each report can differ slightly from a period of one month. To be able to compare the progress in new installations on a daily basis for the category larger than 10 kWac as well as that for the smaller PV-systems (max. 10 kWac), separate calculations have been carried out by Polder PV for the average daily newly reported capacity, as well as for that of the >10 kWac systems. Average daily progress in new VREG registrations has been calculated by dividing the growth in the monthly report under consideration by the exact number of days spanned by that report. Furthermore, to obtain the daily average for the <10 kWac pool, the calculated values were subtracted (total average minus average for >10 kWac group).

With these results, I was able to produce the following graphs, showing the considerable fluctuation in daily average level of registration on a monthly basis for both groups considered. Note that in later month reports a considerable volume of extra reported installations will have been allocated to previous months (or even years). Hence, actual monthly growth is considerably different from the report actualisations shown here (for actual designation to month of official installation, see special on official entry date. The graph below, therefore, shows only the trend of the VREG reporting on an average daily basis.

^^^

Stacked graph
Results for both groups (up till 10 kWac, and >10 kWac) stacked to show average daily progress in new registrations as published by VREG in the periods designated on the X-axis. Note that these periods need not represent exact monthly periods. For example, there were no separate reports for March and April 2010, so the average daily growth for both months together has been calculated. Not all months are fully covered in one report. Therefore, the result for that month has been calculated from the span within that month as indicated by the dates of publication indicated by VREG. Examples are June (1-29) 2010, and October (1-28) 2010. Note that the daily average for new registrations in the category >10 kWac installations (green column segments in this graph) fluctuates considerably through the months of the year, in between 35 and 2.716 kWac on average per day up till Dec. 2011 (difference maximum factor 78). Which can be attributed only partly by the inclusion of very large installations > 1 MWac in a certain period of time.

Trends installations >10 kWac
It is expected that long validation and registration times might also play an important role in the uneven distribution of the large installations in the VREG registration statistics. For example, the 40 MW Katoen Natie project, already reported as "installed" end of 2009, has taken a long time for (expected) final disclosure within the VREG database (see graphs in the Katoen Natie special, a 30th sub-installation was added as late as in the December 1, 2011 report).
Another example: The 1,87 MWp amorphous silicon thin-film project on the Flanders Expo near Gent, already reported by me at the start of December 2009, only has reached the VREG listing in the April 5, 2011 report (in 5 separate entries with 1,596 MWac, hence DC/AC ratio of 1,17).

Finally, in the December 1, 2011 report, 5 sections of the Balta (ITC) PV-project with an accumulation of 2.969 kWac in Tielt have been published by VREG, under the (new) project owner name Eneco Solar Vlaanderen (the third big utility company in Netherlands that is unable to score such projects in our country because of deplorable market conditions for big-size PV). That specific Balta project was already officially accepted by VREG on the final day of 2010, December 31rd. These examples show that there can be a (very) long time between actual project realisation and official VREG registration.

Grid-connection delays
Another aspect that should be taken into consideration is the actual grid-connection. Belgium has a lot of problems with old electrical infrastructure, and connecting big new photovoltaic installations to the grid often encounters several problems, strongly depending on the grid region. For example, it seems to be problematic to connect large systems in the coastal region of Flanders, since the net capacity has been claimed to a large extent for the off-shore windpower capacity already approved. The 5 MWp project Orka installation in Harelbeke (West Flanders, listed in the VREG database as an ING Equipment Lease project in 5 entries) mentioned elsewhere on this page (photo) initially was only partially connected to the grid. Only if the remaining portion is connected, that part of the installation is given the "green light" by VREG, and an entry for that section might be expected in the published VREG records (pers. comm. with Oskomera, the project builder). Up till the March 2, 2012 report 4,4 MWac of the capacity had been claimed (date of approval June 30, 2011, first green certificates produced July 1, 2011).

With reference to the image presented above, an "all-time-low" was initially reported in the >10 kWac VREG registrations for January 2011, only 47 kWac added per day in that month for the "big" category. It was however later underscored by the even lower volume of only 35 kWac/day in the holiday month July for the big installations. On the other hand, May 2011 initially revealed a new record volume of 1.785 kWac for this category. That was surpassed by an end-of-year rallye, with a spectacular volume of 2.716 kWac in the January 1, 2012 report. The massive rise of registered installations in the post-vacation August (1.330 kWac/day) and September updates (1.674 kWac/day) is probably the result of projects finished earlier in the year, most likely just prior to the strong degression implemented on July 1, 2011. It remains to be seen if there still will be room for new big PV-projects, as the next degressions (October 1, 2011 and, in particular, January 1, 2012) have already been implemented for these capital-intensive installations, and green certificate value has dwindled to only 9 Eurocents/kWh as of the beginning of 2012. If module prices keep dropping as they have done so in a spectacular manner since 2010, the appetite for such projects might lead to another "now or never" boom before the next degression for the value of green certificates in the new year. However, if banks will further pull the leads on conditions for loans for such projects in times of increased financial crisis, that positive trend might have already been stalled or seriously influenced in a negative manner. In the March 2, 2012 report, with February data, still a considerable volume of 1,8 MWac/day has been registered, but these concern projects planned - and realized - long ago.

Trends installations up till 10 kWac
The smaller market segment of <10 kWac (blue column segments in this graph) showed a more stable development up till the spring of 2011. Ranging between 316 in March/April 2010 up to a notable end-of-year mini-rush of 816 kWac in December of that year, on average per day (factor 2,6 difference). Note that, while January 2011 has been a dramatic month for development of the market registration for installations >10 kWac, the registrations for smaller PV-systems appeared to be unaffected, with a healthy 482 kWac of new installations on average per day. February up till April 2011 continued that healthy trend with almost 600 kWac of new VREG registrations on average each day. As of May 2011, growth for this smaller category has even been spectacular, almost tripling new volumes on average per day in 8 months on a row.

This strong increase for the small category might be the result of a combination of the ever decreasing module prices in the minds of ever more well-informed Flemish citizens, and a shift in attention by system planners to the smaller markets, that still have lucrative net metering in addition to the green certificates issued by the regional net managers. The extra, lucrative tax breaks, have now finally been omitted by the Flemish government as of January 1, 2012, which the sector thinks will break down market growth. The effects might, however, be much less dramatic as the sector seems to suggest.

A new record volume of 1.513 kWac a day for the small category in June 2011 has now been slightly surpassed in January 2012 (1.526 kWac/day). However, total additions in that month were no match for the final report for the previous year. December 2011 has, up till now, been the total average/day capacity breaker, in particular due to the record volume for the >10 kWac installations. With an impressive 4 MWac for total volume on average on a single average day, December 2011 showed 30% stronger growth than the previous, short-lived September record month...

Graph aligned + trends
In the next graph the results for both market segments are shown adjacent to each other:

For both categories also (Excel-generated) linear trend lines have been incorporated in the graph. For the period shown in previous graphs for 2010, there has been a conspicuous general downgoing trend for the daily average new capacity registered for installations >10 kWac by VREG (green dashed trend line). Due to the strong growth of newly reported big installations in most VREG issues published as of May 2011, the trend line has, however, turned into a positive direction again. Although the dramatic outcome for the holiday month July 2011 has been the ultimate negative trend-breaker, that was surpassed again with massive new capacities in the 2 following month reports, and November, with another phenomenal record volume in the December report.

A very clear general upward trend remains apparent for the PV-systems with a maximum size of 10 kWac in the VREG registrations, that even has increased strong momentum later in the year (blue dashed trend line). One should be cautious to interpret these as "the real market trends", in particular for the larger installations that apparently take a long time to materialise in the VREG statistics ("officially registered") after submission of the projects. For the small category up till 10 kWac, VREG stated in their 2010 year report on green electricity (published August 5, 2011), that 69% of the on-line requests for photovoltaic installations got immediate approval within 24 hours after submitting the digital paperwork resulting from automatic controls of the data provided. A minority of the submitted small projects takes a longer time to process, including the approximately 8,3% of total projects submitted to VREG for the small category that has been sent physically (on paper) by post in 2010.

Predictions as to how the two market segments will evolve are hard to make, and will be highly effected by the degression steps in the feed-in categories decided upon by the Flemish authorities, in combination with the positive trend of ever-decreasing module prices. Another critical factor will be the "perception" with the Flemish inhabitants, as publications related to solar development, costs, and benefits, appear more frequently in the newspapers, magazines, radio, TV and, of course, on the internet. Of course, another subjective influence might be the uncertainties in the EU concerning the general status of the global economy. Finally, in particular the delay in registration of the larger PV-projects in the VREG records, sometimes long after installations have been connected to the grid is a factor making interpretations of "real" market development in Flanders a difficult task. This, however, is not unique for Flanders (it can be far worse, like Italy has shown with their bizarre - explosive - market development that is very hard to keep track of).

Detailed graph for segment >10 kWac
With respect to the market segment of >10 kWac installations, for which individual system size details are available in a long list on the VREG website, a more detailed daily average graph has been made of older data, showing the dynamics up till April 2011:

Detailed split of the (original) 7 capacity categories discerned by Polder PV to show development in average daily new registrations in the periods shown on the X-axis (month reports by VREG). In particular the larger categories >100 kWac fluctuate considerably in the course of time. If this is "true installation reality", or that it might be a flaw of the administrative delays in the registration system with VREG, or perhaps both, remains unclear. The peak in the period June 29 up till August 1 ("July") for the largest category >1 MWac (green curve) could be attributed to the first 9 sub-installations of the Katoen Natie super project being registered by VREG, resulting in a "month-average" of 792 kWac newly installed capacity for that category per day.

Note that in the Dec. 1, 2010 report, an installation of 12 kWac in the small market segment of installations up till 15 kWac has been removed in the VREG update, which resulted in a slight "negative growth" for the last month in this graph (not discernable at this detail level). In the April 5, 2011 report 7 smaller installations in the >10 kWac category (10-15 kWac), and the 3,6 MWac Serge Hardy project have been removed for unknown reasons. Sometimes upgrades (capacity) and renewals of previously registered installations occur in several VREG month reports, but in general they have only minor influence on general "growth" trends such as depicted in the graphs in this section.

The graph shows very clearly the considerable negative impact on the registered market growth in all segments >10 kWac at the start of the new year (2011). Growth in registrations had almost come to a stand-still in January 2011. As of February 2011 however, growth in this market segment has regained positive momentum again.

This graph is not being updated anymore.

Calculation of the impact of the market segment of maximum 10 kWac
When subtracting the capacity of 714,2 MWac for the >10 kWac installations (graphs above) from the reported total of 1.549,4 MWac in the separate installation listing in the VREG March 2, 2012 update, a volume of 835,1 MWac remains for the "maximum 10 kWac" installations market segment.

With (few) installations removed from earlier VREG lists taken into account, the number of installations >10 kWac turned out to have grown to 3.382 in the March 2, 2012 report (average size for that category: 211,2 kWac/installation). VREG reported in the same month a total accumulation of 180.092 registered PV-installations (report date-stamped March 2, 2012). Hence, 176.710 systems (or, preferrably: "registrations") should be allocated to the category of max. 10 kWac installations.

Taking these two data together, 176.710 smaller (mostly but not exclusively: private households) "installations" with a total capacity of 835,1 MWac (53,9% of the Flemish market with respect to capacity installed) would have an average system size of 4,73 kWac. If DC:AC ratio is taken with a factor 1,1, this would mean that average small nominal DC power for those "small" installations would amount to approximately 5,20 kWp. If the basic data for this calculation are considered correct.

Additions to the >10 kWac list - status March 2, 2012

As of the beginning of 2009 I planned to screen the intriguing listing of >10 kWac Flemish installations (revised pdf with 204 pages for the December 1, 2011 update). In the graphs above I have visualized the changes for this category. In this section I will emphasize some of the most important changes and additions to that list. See also the big installations update earlier on this web page.

Photo © JUMA Beton NV- IZ Maatheide, Maatheide 105, 3920 LOMMEL, Belgium (photo from this web page)

Photo 2 - Lots of inverters (72, to be precisely), for a large 770 kWp PV-installation with multicrystalline Scheuten Solar modules in Lommel. Added to the VREG inventory in the February 2010 listing, although only 730 kWac was specified there, a generator [DC]/[AC] inverter ratio of 105%. 3.942 [195 Wp] multicrystalline modules on the 17.500 m² industrial roof of Juma Beton NV (Valeres building group, see also their news item, and the Global Solar Technology article, July 23, 2009). The installation, delivered in October 2009, has been realized by the Dutch system house Scheuten Solar (see project page), in conjunction with the engineering bureau 3E. For more photo's see this link on the Juma Beton site.

New (and sometimes removed) installations (March 2, 2012) since the VREG report published February 1, 2012. Discrimination in - now 8 - classes defined by Polder PV. Installations added to the VREG list in 29 days time, many of them formally installed in 2011 [77% of total capacity added], some in 2010 [almost 11%] or even in 2009, almost 0,4%. And, with new additions of over 12% for new installations in 2012. Details published by VREG for >10 kWac installations only.

• >10-15 kWac 2 new installation, total 27,0 kWac.
• >15-30 kWac 16 new installations, total 403,7 kWac.
• >30-50 kWac 32 new installations, total 1.358,7 kWac.
• >50-100 kWac 53 new installations, total 3.770,1 kWac.
• >100-250 kWac 69 new installations, total 11.801,6 kWac.
• >250-500 kWac 28 new installations, 10.345,2 kWac.
• >500-1.000 kWac 12 new installations, total 9.333,0 kWac.
• >1.000 kWac 8 new installations, total 14.073,0 kWac (again, one installation, ISP1-RG BVBA Marnix, 1.048 kWac, was "created" by fusion of 2 smaller existing project records into one in the VREG listing).
• 1 project size change (added 33 kWac).
• 2 project removed from records (net loss 97,3 kWac).
• Biggest new project presented as a single entry in the VREG list: 3.660 kWac ISP1-RG nv/VMW project in Kluizen, under an ING Equipment Lease Belgium NV umbrella.
• 19 name changes and/or new project owners (most to ING Equipment Lease, last "Fabricom" projects now also under name Solar Finance NV).

Special: Distribution of PV-installations among net managers involved

Another interesting new issue published in the first Excel spreadsheet by VREG (original Jan. 2011) has been the net manager region in which the solar electricity is being produced for the installation category >10 kWac. This feature had not been published earlier. From the March 2, 2012 status report (Word file exported to Excel), I extracted the following graph to give a general view of distribution among net managers in Flanders.

Situation as of March 1, 2012. Total number of installations >10 kWac: 3.382, with 714,2 MWac in accumulation. Note that the X-axis are in logarithmic scale, to accomodate the accumulation for all VREG registrations at the bottom-line (in deviating colours). Yellow bars are total number of installations, with the actual number in black at the left (scale: bottom X-axis). In dark orange bars accumulated capacity in the net manager region has been added, with the actual data at the right end of the bars, in kWac (scale: upper X-axis). The net managers with most >10 kWac installations at that time were Inter-Energa (785, 23,2%), Gaselwest (702, 20,8%), and Iveka (470, 13,9%), respectively. With respect to total installed capacity, however, the order is Inter-Energa (151,3 MWac, 21,2%), Gaselwest (141,8 MWac, 19,9%), followed by Iveka, Intergem and Imewo close together (having 83,7 MWac, 11,7%, 77,4 MWac, 10,8%, and 76,8 MWac, 10,8%, respectively). Both Inter-Energa and Gaselwest already have far more photovoltaic capacity (note: AC value) in their Flemish net region as the whole of the country Netherlands has probably accumulated in 2011.

Note that in the Jan. 1, 2012 report, a new net manager was temporarily added, BIAC/DNBBA, that regulates the net of Belgium's Nationial Airport NE of Zaventem. It had been incorporated because of the new VREG entry on the premises of Brucargo on the premises of the airport. However, that 1,66 MWac installation now is found under the umbrella of the high voltage network manager Elia (DNB). On the other hand, in the Feb. 1, 2012 report, the small company AGEM (the last autonomous distribution net manager in the hands of community Merksplas) has been deleted as identity from the VREG records. Its services have been taken over by Iverlek as per Jan. 1, 2012, which itself has outsourced most of its net manager functions to the umbrella organisation Infrax, (see message on the website of Merksplas community).

Still another picture emerges if the average installation capacity of these >10 kWac PV-installations is calculated per net manager region. In that case, the high-voltage net manager Elia (DNB) daughter easily wins the race with 1.875 kWac per installation (only 11 of them). Included in their (small) portfolio are the already mentioned Zaventem Burcargo project (1.660 kWac), the large 2.670 and 6.220 kWac Zonnecentrale installations in Lommel and in Overpelt, and the 4.050 kWac "Solar Tunnel" near Schoten/Brasschaat, and [in]directly connected to Elia's high-voltage network.

Second after Elia is net manager Sibelgas with 328 kWac on average per installation (only 23 PV systems >10 kWac, 12 of them (much) larger than 300 kWac, the biggest one being a 1 MWac PV-plant by Sunergy in Grimbergen). Finally, Intergem, with a respectable number of 289 installations >10 kWac, has an average capacity of 268 kWac/system. The reason: the Loghidden City terminal of Katoen Natie is in their region, and that largest installation in the Benelux alone has already 27,92 MWac evenly distributed among 22 sub-installations (1,27 MWac on average per section).

On the other hand, the net manager Intermosane has only few installations >10 kWac, and an average system size of 49 kWac. AGEM, which only had 74 kWac on average, has been sold to Iverlek and will not further be identified as such in the listing by VREG. GHA, the "Gemeentelijk Havenbedrijf Antwerpen", the organisation originally responsible for the net connections in the harbour region on Antwerp soil (hence: east of the river Schelde), had only 12 installations >10 kWac in the May 2011 report, with an average of 229 kWac per system. Their data have been included in those of IVEG that overtook the net managing task of GHA. One of the reasons is the fact that introducing a lot of PV-capacity in the "willing" Antwerp harbour area would generate a sharp rise in the electricity fee to be paid by the few clients in this (former) small net region. By taking over the net region by a much larger net manager, the costs for payments of green certificates to the PV-producers could be spread over far more customers, hence contributing only to a slight rise of the "green electricity renumeration". It came as no surprise that a short while after that take-over, several big PV-installations in the Antwerp harbour region made their entry in the monthly VREG updates...

It is, again, good to realize that Katoen Natie's impressive Loghidden City Terminal is not on Antwerp soil, but instead on that of the province of East-Flanders (West-Bank of river Schelde). Although it is often "mentally connected" to Antwerp because of the important, extensive harbour region in which it is situated. There are interesting but unverified "stories" being told why the major harbour city of Antwerp does not have the biggest installation of the Benelux on its premises. Besides, since Antwerp itself has "opened" its own market for large scale installations, Katoen Natie was one of the early birds to profit from that move - on the East Bank of the River Schelde (already several new entries in the VREG records)...

Flanders - renewable electricity mix shows clear PV component

From the last pdf document "Number of green certificates issued" of VREG the most actual pie diagrams have been calculated, from data provided in the period 2002 up till December 2011 (in earlier reports, VREG presented its own pie-diagram for green certificates issued). Note that also these diagrams are lagging behind with respect to the actual situation.

March 2, 2012 update

(1) Accumulation of all green certificates issued in 2002-2010

^^^ From this pie-chart, calculated by Polder PV from the VREG data reported, it becomes clear that, although not all green certificates might have been issued at the date of this last update, in the period 2002-2010, photovoltaics has already acquired a share of 5% of the renewable electricity mix rewarded with green certificates by VREG. Most substantial shares are for sorted or selectively collected biomass (29%), biomass sourced from agriculture and forestry (24%), and windpower on land (16%). This graph can - in theory - still change (minor corrections only) as new data for green certificates issued by VREG become available in more recent reports. Data for certificates issued in 2011 have not yet been included in the present graph. Status: © March 2, 2012 VREG Flanders

(2) Green certificates issued for the year 2010 only

^^^ This pie chart shows the number of green certificates issued only for the year 2010. Also for that year alone more certificates can be assigned afterwards. It is clear that the share of photovoltaics in the "green mix" has risen fast, as compared to the accumulation graph for the years 2002-2010 shown above. PV already had 16% of the certificates issued in 2010 with the update shown here (March 2, 2012, including [highly preliminary] data provided up till December 2011). Note that, starting in the Feb. 1, 2012 report, the option "biogas from (mainly) agricultural sources" has been added.

(3) Green certificates issued for the year 2011 only (preliminary, data far from complete!)

^^^ This still highly incomplete pie chart shows the number of green certificates issued only for the year 2011. For this year alone many more certificates will be assigned afterwards. The share of photovoltaics in the "green mix" has risen further, as compared to the graph for 2010 shown directly above. PV here is represented with 28% of the certificates issued sofar in 2011 with the update shown here (March 2, 2012, including [highly preliminary] data provided up till December 2011). Note that this percentage is highly uncertain, since also for all the other options many certificates still have to be incorporated. These yet unknown data will be added in coming updates.

The next diagram (new make-up by VREG since Feb. 2011) clearly shows the rapidly increasing and astonishing high impact of solar electricity in the "green" electricity mix of Flanders in a different way. In particular during the summer period the trend is unmistakable and undeniable (red segments):

^^^ Contribution of different types of "sustainable", certified electricity (visualized as green certificates issued per month) in the renewable Flemish production mix in the course of time since Jan. 2002, up till and inclusive December 2011. Note strong growth in the years 2005-2011. Photovoltaic electricity has already been a notable factor in the summer season of 2009 (red segments - colour change since Feb. 1, 2012 report) and has increasingly become a highly significant part of Flemish renewable electricity mix in almost half of 2010, and significantly increasingly further in 2011. Please note that certificates are provided later than actual production, and that still a lot of certificates (for most technologies depicted) have not been incorporated in this graph. Vertical scale is max. 400.000 certificates issued per month (1 green certificate standing for 1 MWh, hence 400 GWh). Note! Colours in this graph do not necessarily match with the ones used in pie-charts by VREG! Status: © March 2, 2012 VREG Flanders

In the next graph, introduced for the first time by VREG in the Feb. 28, 2011 status report, the number of green certificates issued by VREG for (only) photovoltaics is given (for graphs for other "renewable" electricity generating options, please refer to the original VREG publication):

In the summer of 2010 (blunt peak at right) already almost 77.000 green certificates for photovoltaics were issued by VREG (July), good for a volume of approximately 77 GWh. 2011 saw an explosive rise of green certificates issued for PV, in sunny May (last peak, data at right), already a level of more than 133 GWh has been reached, with potential for much more in coming sunny sommer months with rapidly expanded capacities. Status: © March 2, 2012 VREG Flanders

Finally, the last graph in this section shows the green certificates that have already been issued and that, for the biggest part, already have been used as guarantees of origin (GO's) for use of solar electricity in Flanders up till, and inclusive, December 2011:

This graph shows that almost 489 GWh of green certificates have been issued for solar electricity produced on Flemish soil in 2010 (yellow column segment). And that still 106 GWh of these green certificates were in the waiting line to be validated as "green electricity actually sold as such" (green column segments, still to be used as guarantuees of origin, GO's).

The available data up till December 2011 (final column) show that growth in certificates issued for PV is very strong, with already 982 GWh having been acknowledged by VREG in 2011, probably more to be approved in the waiting line, as well as many more GWh's that will be added later in the year. A considerable volume (226 GWh, 23% of certificate total) still awaits use as a GO. It is possible that with backlog certificates to be added, a level of 1 TWh could be reached in 2011.

For 2010 only, the share of solar electricity in the green mix has reached a level of 15,9%, while in 2009 this was only 5,3%. Due to backlog of certificates, this percentage still could change in the course of time and become a little bit higher (minor correction expected). The share in total electricity consumption has already broken the 1% barrier.

Special: official date of VREG approval for projects >10 kWac

A new interesting data found in the first Excel spreadsheet on the VREG site (January 31, 2011), is the official date of approval for the bigger (>10 kWac) projects listed by VREG ("datum indiensttreding"). This information has not been available in the monthly pdf documents issued by the organisation up till the end of 2010, but is found in the recent documents published in 2011. I made some new graphs based on this interesting new "feature" in the VREG records (status: March 2, 2012 report).

This first graph (above) shows the official installation date for the number of PV-systems >10 kWac per month according to VREG (note that a few smaller older systems apparently have been withdrawn from the VREG list in previous updates for unknown reasons). The first 3 (remaining) installations have date-stamps for January 2006 - the earliest PV-systems recorded with VREG (there are still much older existing installations in Belgium, of course). Crystal-clear from this graph is the huge installation peak in December 2009, in which now 770 installations >10 kWac were awarded official recognition by VREG. The level dropped however dramatically immediately in January 2010 (just 1 installation in this category), and revived to a much lower level of 653 new installations >10 kWac in December of that year (85% of the number for Dec. 2009).

In 2011 initially only few installations had been registered for this category, but growth revealed in later month reports is striking, including the adjusted numbers for the earlier months. Prior to the degression of green certicifate value as of July (degression dates indicated with vertical dashed red lines), another strong installation peak materialised, 734 for the >10 kWac category, already beyond the peak in December 2010. After that only 157 new installations were reported by VREG in this category, with a minor September installation peak prior to the next degression date, October 1, 2011.

VREG still has to work out their backlog of PV-systems reported to them, in particular for this category with large PV-installations. The number is growing, and with present status, is likely that the high December level seen in 2009 will be reached. October 1, 2011, another degression of tariffs has been implemented, resulting in feed-in levels of 27 Eurocent/kWh for installations up till 250 kWac, and only 15 Eurocent/kWh for larger installations. Sofar, this resulted in only 135 new installations >10 kWac in the "pre-tariff-change" month, September. These tariffs have been adjusted even more since January 1, 2012: 25, and 9 Eurocent/kWh, respectively. The big question is: has it become impossible to exploit a large PV-installation under the most recent conditions, or is it just a matter of extreme profit-based thinking that almost no new installations were allocated by VREG in the final months of 2011?

In this second graph the same is shown as in the previous one, but now the total solar capacity added for each month that new installations got official "green light" from VREG is shown (in MWac of accumulated capacity). In this graph it is clear that the peak for December 2009 is not a record anymore, with now almost 168 MWac of >10 kWac projects in one single month. The December 2010 peak, with now almost 157 MWac, is still only 7% lower. From these graphs it is clear that for this specific category of larger PV-installations, the end of the year has been the most important period to finalize these projects. For 2011, the pre-July-degression month June now already has more new capacity in the >10 kWac category than December 2009. Already 192 MWac has now been reported as "new" for that month, 15% more than the December 2010 peak. In the pre-October-degresion month a smaller peak occurred, with 23,9 MWac new additions. That volume is more than the total volume added in the whole year of 2010 in the Netherlands. Much more capacity additions can be expected for Flanders...

Still another data-set is shown in this last graph. Now, not the date of registration is given, but the date on which first green certificates have been issued for the installation: for most bigger installations this is most probably close to the date of official grid-connection, with the PV-system going "on-line" and physically producing energy. Only the graph with the accumulation of capacity is given here:

In this graph, with accumulated capacity per month of first grid-connection / first issued GO's, the trend shows a much more even distribution in the course of time than in the previous 2 graphs. Relatively high peaks are seen just prior to the degressions of green certificate values, with a strong peak in September 2011 (over 55 MWac of installations receiving their first green certificates). After that, the volumes strongly decreased for the >10 kWac category. The "April 2010 certificate peak" is probably the result of many installations being finalized end of February that, by connecting to the grid at that time still could have obtained the right to receive a green certificate value of 45 Eurocent/kWh for 20 years.

Note that in Flanders, a monthly addition to the grid of at least 20-35 MWac of photovoltaic capacity apparently has become a "normal" level of progress in the year 2011.

In this final graph the official starting date for PV-projects >10 kWac has been given on a daily basis for the busiest month in Flemish history, December 2009 (again: March 2, 2012 report used for data). The number of projects awarded as such is indicated in yellow columns (with black numbers on the bottom line). The total capacity of all projects on the same day is given in orange-coloured columns with the accumulated capacity calculated in numbers on top of the columns (in MWac). The busiest day by far was December 23, with 75 new projects >10 kWac officially "started" according to VREG. The final day of the year, December 31, had 64 projects awarded. However, if one looks to capacity added on one day, the 31st of December 2009 got the trophy, with 17,34 MWac on a single day "officially approved". Note that weekend and holidays (Christmas) are under represented: no or hardly any PV-systems were allocated to these non-working days.

More details on Flanders PV market
Wetenswaardigheden over de Vlaamse PV markt

Photo 3 - Small part of the installation on the renovated Mechelse veiling (according to VREG May 2010 report: 1,014 MWac) in Sint-Katelijne-Waver. According to an ensemble in the photo-album of AGF.nl 5.500 PV-modules would have been installed here, and 8.900 MWh a year of solar electricity would be produced. That is, however unlikely, because that would suggest 8.777 kWh/kWac a year production. Most likely, a yearly yield of 890 MWh (specific yield: 878 kWh/kWac.year) is applicable here, more in line with production mentioned in the AGF article (message of 22st of March 2010). A financial pay-back time of 6,5 years has been suggested for this installation, which could turn out to be true, because of the extremely interesting combination of predictable, hence calculable, financial incentives in Flanders in the period that this installation was connected to the grid. According to the V&R The Solarcompany website, that company from Heusden-Zolder would have realised this interesting PV project (see pdf).

Special: Distribution of PV-installations per community in Flanders

In De Standaard of 19 april 2011 an interesting overview of accumulated capacity per community (postal code) was given, based on data apparently provided by VREG. It includes total capacity, the accumulation of volumes for the two categories <= 10 kWac, plus the larger installations (>10 kWac). De Standaard wrongly quoted "number of PV-modules", but the table they presented clearly shows "accumulated kWac capacity", since for Beveren-Waas the number "29844" was given. This cannot cover number of installations (and certainly not to number of solar panels as wrongly suggested). It points instead to total accumulated capacity in kWac at that time. Beveren-Waas is the community in East-Flanders (West Bank of the river Schelde) having the Loghidden City terminal on its soil, and that accounts to 27,51 MWac.

In that article, also a link to a highly interesting image has been provided with "number of solar panels per community for private households". This most certainly also must be read as the accumulated capacity, with colour codes for 0-500 kWac up till a category of over 3.000 kWac in the community under consideration:

Capacity of PV-installations for "private persons" (households), in categories ranging from 0-500 kWac (yellow-green) up till > 3.000 kWac per community (dark green). Brussels is not included here (white "gap" at bottom). The yellow-green segment on the right is the so-called Voerstreek directly on the border of Netherlands Limburg (actually isolated in the surrounding area of Walloon region of Belgium). Provincial borders are indicated with thin white lines. Two "hot-spots" for private as well as for industrial size installations have been indicated with yellow stars by the webmaster of Polder PV: Beveren-Waas west of river Schelde on top (private segment in table 5.157 kWac), the star standing for the Loghidden City terminal of Katoen Natie with 27,9 MWac. According to the table in the Standaard article, industrial installations in Beveren-Waas would have amounted to 29.844 kWac at the time of publication. Secondly, Gent (households: 7.972 kWac), with the star indicating another concentration of Katoen Natie and other similar "logistics terminal" roof-projects (harbour region of Desteldonk / Sint-Kruis-Winkel): 20.561 kWac in total according to the table, at the time of publication.

In a separate press communication by VREG data have been provided for results per province and per net manager region (status April 18, 2011). From this document (linked below) it becomes clear that Eastern Flanders is the most "productive" province with respect to green electricity generation in 2010 (almost one million and a half green certificates being allocated by VREG, Flemish Brabant only received 117.000 certificates in that status update). Beveren-Waas has been the best producer of solar electricity (12.930 certificates, each valid for 1 MWh, in 2010). Which is, of course, directly related to the fact that the biggest single (multi-roof) PV-installation in the Benelux is present within its borders: 27,92 MWac Loghidden City terminal, the shining core of the Katoen Natie project...

For table with data, and detailed colour map, see the article link:

http://www.standaard.be/extra/zonnepanelen/
http://www.vreg.be/pers-2011-2 (April 18, 2011: press communication in Dutch considering "statistics of green electricity and co-generation per community, province, and net manager region", with several interesting data in a Word document)

Dutch summary of most important extra findings from the VREG data for the Flemish PV market. Status report: March 2, 2012.

• Vanaf april 2010 zijn er continu maandrapporten uitgebracht.
  
  
• Op 4 februari 2011 heb ik de "januari 2011" rapportages van de VREG gedownload (NB: status 31 januari 2011). Nieuw was dat de installatie lijst >10 kWac als Excel file was uitgebracht, wat een hoop typ- en controle werk bespaarde. Helaas verscheen in de latere updates wederom een pdf file of een Word document. In het rapport van 2 maart 2012 nieuw geregistreerd en reeds gecertificeerd door VREG tm. 29 februari, sinds het vorige "productie-installaties" rapport van 1 februari 2012: 75,70 MWac, waarvan de meerderheid grote installaties (>10 kWac) betreft (68%), en van het totale volume 77% aan 2011 werd toegewezen. Totaal voorlopige accumulatie: 1.549,4 MWac. Het nieuwe volume komt neer op weer een imposante toegevoegde capaciteit van gemiddeld 2.610 kWac per dag in 29 dagen tijd. Dit betrof in totaal 4.947 nieuwe PV-systeem registraties in februari 2012, met een gemiddelde van (maar liefst) 15,3 kWac/installatie (relatief veel grote nieuwe installaties).
  
  
• Uitgaande van een speculatief MWp (DC generator) vermogen met een factor van 1,1 t.o.v. het nieuw geregistreerde MWac vermogen in Vlaanderen (plm. 83 MWp), zou in 29 dagen tijd daar al dik anderhalf maal de maximaal haalbare 50 MWp die er in totaal is beschikt voor de complete SDE 2011 aan zonnestroom capaciteit in Nederland zijn bijgeschreven bij de zuiderburen. Sterker nog: voor 2011 is er in ieder geval al (in de standaard maandrapportage) officieel door VREG 647,8 MWac ingeschreven (geschat ongeveer 713 MWp DC vermogen, al ruim het vijfvoudige volume wat er in Nederland in vele jaren tijd is geaccumuleerd). Dat betreft het geaccumuleerde vermogen van alweer 79.598 nieuwe PV-installaties (of delen van grote installaties). Reminder: in heel 2009 zou er in Nederland slechts iets van 10,7 MWp zijn afgezet aan eindgebruikers volgens het CBS. In 2010 is het mogelijk maar iets van 20,7 MWp geweest (update CBS hier). Vlaanderen zette er dus - met deze nog zeer voorlopige, hoogst waarschijnlijk nog flink groeiende resultaten - alleen al in 2011 een hoeveelheid vermogen bij wat ruim 34 maal zo veel is dan Nederland in heel 2010 nieuw gerealiseerd zou hebben (waarvan zo'n 40% buiten de "officiële" van Staatswege geïmplementeerde SDE om gerealiseerd kan zijn geweest).
  
  
• Het totaal aantal volledig gecertificeerde, geregistreerde, en continu geijkt bemeten PV-installaties in Vlaanderen is in het 2 maart 2012 rapport al opgelopen naar de "historische" hoeveelheid van 180.092 stuks. Het is daarmee al lang kristalhelder geworden dat Vlaanderen ook het totaal aantal (vaak veel kleinere, uit vaak slechts een paar modules betaande, en in slechts weinig gevallen "dakvullende") PV-systemen in Nederland al (lang geleden) heeft ingehaald. Volgens het maandrapport van 1 maart 2012 van CertiQ is het aantal gecertificeerde PV-installaties in Nederland opgelopen naar slechts 9.320 systemen (grootste deel, bijna 94%, SDE installaties; verhouding gecertificeerd Vlaanderen : NL is 19,3 : 1 ...). Daar moeten nog een paar tienduizend stuks meestal kleine Nederlandse systemen buiten de CertiQ database wel bij worden opgeteld. Niemand die het totale aantal weet. Het aantal groeit nog steeds, hoe snel blijft onduidelijk vanwege veel onzekerheden en "non-registraties" van wel gebouwde - kleine - PV-installaties. Duidelijk is dat Vlaanderen eind februari 2012 gegarandeerd al enorm veel meer PV-installaties heeft dan in Nederland, terwijl de bevolking van het Vlaamse Gewest een factor 2,7 maal zo klein is. Bovendien is de gemiddelde installatiegrootte in Vlaanderen fors groter (vermoedelijk voor particuliere installaties minimaal het dubbele) dan in Nederland. Er is geen limiet aan de installatiegrootte in België, zoals het gigantische Katoen Natie project laat zien (waarvan vrijwel alle onderdelen alweer minstens een jaar geleden lijken te zijn opgenomen in de VREG cijfers).
  
  
• De meest recent bekende hoeveelheid van 344 MWac, voor het ietwat "slappe" jaar 2010 in Vlaanderen, indien equivalent gesteld aan 378 MWp generator vermogen (factor 1,1), zou neerkomen op gemiddeld ongeveer 31,5 MWp nieuwbouw per maand. Een factor drie maal zoveel volume gemiddeld in een maand tijd als de hele SDE in 2010 tot en met 1 januari 2012 aan nieuwe installaties in Nederland heeft gebracht (plm. 10,1 MWp), en op jaarbasis bijna een factor 18 meer dan er volgens de voorlopige CBS cijfers in 2010 zou zijn afgezet in heel Nederland.
  
  VREG kwam met de nieuwe gegevens begin maart 2012 alweer op 32.928 nieuwe installaties voor 2010. De groei voor dat jaar kwam daarmee in Vlaanderen op gemiddeld 2.744 nieuwe installaties per maand. Het maximum aantal nieuwe gecertificeerde (vaak kleine) PV-installaties wat uit de CertiQ maandrapporten voor Nederland naar boven kwam drijven was 412 stuks, in mei 2011. We lopen zelfs met de aantallen nieuwe (gecertificeerde, en gemiddeld genomen kleinere) installaties nog steeds op kapot gesleten, veelvuldig provisorisch herstelde prehistorische voetlappen, dat mag duidelijk zijn...
  
  
• De "voorlopig definitieve" groei voor eerdere jaren wordt vastgesteld ter referentie, op basis van de laatst bij VREG bekende, grotendeels weer omhoog bijgestelde groeicijfers (1 maart 2012). Ik heb in onderstaand tabelletje in de eerste kolom de alweer verouderde data uit het VREG jaaroverzicht voor groene stroom weergegeven, waaruit blijkt dat de gegevens continu worden ververst (lees: in latere rapportages meestal naar boven bijgesteld):
  
  

  	VREG jaarrapport 2010* (MWac)	VREG rapportage 2 mrt. 2012 (MWac)
  Vóór 2006	1,498	1,484
  2006	2,162	2,159
  2007	22,046	22,046
  2008	67,117	67,075
  2009	445,821	453,306
  2010	253,780	344,428
  2011	---	647,760
  2012	---	11,130
  * VREG "Marktrapport 2010" (publicatie datum 5 augustus 2011), Hoofdstuk 5 Hernieuwbare energiebronnen en warmtekrachtkoppeling. NB: oudere installaties die niet (meer) "in aanmerking komen voor de toekenning van groenestroom certificaten" vallen dus buiten deze cijfers. Het betekent echter niet per definitie dat die oudere installaties afgebroken (zullen) worden.

  
  Accumulatie van totale capaciteit in Vlaanderen eind 2010 was 890,498 MWac.
  
  
• Zeer voorlopige, nog drastisch omhoog bij te stellen eerste VREG cijfers voor 2011 tm. 2 maart 2012 rapport: 647,760 MWac nieuwe installaties (CertiQ 1 jan. 2012 voor 2011 in Nederland: 21,446 MWp gecertificeerd nominaal DC vermogen). Totale accumulatie alle bij VREG geregistreerde - en gecertificeerde - installaties eind 2011: 1.549,4 MWac, waarschijnlijk reeds ongeveer zo'n 1.704 MWp aan DC generator vermogen (NL: 50,862 MWp nominaal DC vermogen gecertificeerd eind 2011, totaal netgekoppeld eind december mogelijk al tegen de 140 MWp gekomen (incl. veronderstelde bijbouw niet gecertificeerd vermogen, 35% van jaar totaal), met forse tolerantie vanwege permanente onzekerheden rond markt realisaties). Eind 2011 heeft alleen het kleine Vlaanderen al dus waarschijnlijk bijna een factor twaalf maal zoveel zonnestroom vermogen gerealiseerd als heel Nederland sinds vorige eeuw bij elkaar heeft gesprokkeld (gerekend naar inwoner aantal komen ze dan al in de buurt van een factor 33)...
  
  
• Het geregistreerde AC vermogen groeide bij VREG een respectabele 5,1% tussen 1 februari en 1 maart 2012 (groeipercentages hebben hiervoor nog hoger gelegen, in juli 2010 zelfs een spectaculaire 15,9%, in mei 2011 10,9%), resp. een bescheiden 2,8% voor het aantal nieuwe installaties.
  
  
• Gemiddelde maandelijkse groei sinds juli 2008 (oudste mij ter beschikking staande maanddata van de VREG) zowel voor capaciteit als voor installatie aantallen 2,3%. Sinds maart 2009 was de groei van nieuw geregistreerde PV-systemen 43,0 MWac/maand gemiddeld, 8,6% per maand. In aantal installaties zijn deze getallen gemiddeld 4.622 systemen/maand, resp. een maandelijks groeipercentage van gemiddeld 7,1%.
  
  
• Gemiddelde gerealiseerde installatie grootte begin maart 2012 (accumulatie alle gecertificeerde installaties): 8,60 kWac (dit lag begin van 2010 nog rond de 5 kWac, steeg daarna, en zakte in de dramatische juli 2011 - met maar 8 installaties >10 kWac, tijdelijk licht in). Dat zou met een conservatieve factor 1,1 neer kunnen komen op een gemiddeld nominaal generator vermogen van ongeveer 9,5 kWp. De gemiddelde installatiegrootte van alle PV-systemen in heel Nederland is onbekend, maar zal niet groter zijn dan ongeveer 2-3 kWp per systeem zolang marktgroei voort blijft kruipen (let wel: daar zit bijvoorbeeld het antieke Floriadedak van 2,3 MWp ook bij...). De gemiddelde installatiegrootte van nieuwe en gecertificeerde PV-systemen in de CertiQ maandrapporten (lees: SDE installaties vanaf het najaar van 2008) was sinds eind 2009 6,3 kWp per installatie. Dat getal is waarschijnlijk fors beïnvloed door registratie van enkele grotere systemen die maximaal 100 kWp groot kunnen zijn per beschikking (relatief hoge impact omdat er maar een beperkt aantal installaties zijn ingeschreven bij CertiQ, eind februari 2012 zo'n 8.800 / SDE). Van SDE 2011 is nog vrijwel niets aan PV beschikt of gerealiseerd. PPV kent nog slechts een installatie, die alleen maar economisch ge-exploiteerd kan worden door toepassing van de zeer lucratieve EIA bovenop vervroegde aftrek (Crisis- en Herstelwet) voordelen. De SDE 2011 steenkolen fooi is slechts een marginale - en hoogst onzekere - bonus voor die installatie...
  
  Voor een vergelijking van de maandelijkse nieuwe registraties tussen Nederland en Vlaanderen, zie de grafiek gebaseerd op de meest recente cijfers op de marktcijfers pagina voor PV in Nederland.
  
  
• Gemiddelde systeemgrootte "kleine" installaties. Op basis van de in de legenda van het >10 kWac installatie overzicht getoonde getallen voor de grote door de VREG gecertificeerde en geadministreerde PV-systemen kunnen we met de geaccumuleerde februari 2012 data ook de uiteindelijke gemiddelde systeemgrootte van de kleinere installaties tm. 10 kWac voor Vlaanderen berekenen. Die komt neer op 4,73 kWac/systeem (geschat ongeveer 5,2 kWp gemiddeld per "particuliere" installatie).
  
  
• Het gerealiseerde netgekoppeld AC vermogen per inwoner in het Vlaamse Gewest is begin maart 2012 op een niveau van ongeveer op 248 Watt gekomen. Vermenigvuldigd met een conservatieve AC > DC factor van 1,1 komen we daarmee op een mogelijk gemiddelde van 273 Wp "zonnepaneel vermogen": een modern, krachtig zonnepaneel voor alle Vlamingen (baby's, bejaarden, en gevangenen incluis). Eind juni 2010 was dat nog ongeveer 75 Wp. Hiermee heeft Vlaanderen dus al lang [vermoedelijk al in september 2010] de 100 Wp drempel "genomen". In Nederland is dit - onder fors voorbehoud slechts 6,5 Wp per inwoner. Op basis van de op 30 juni 2011 gepubliceerde CBS StatLine data met cijfers voor 2010, het qua cijfermateriaal gelijkluidende CBS rapport over "hernieuwbare" energie in 2010, en bijbouw volume bij CertiQ tm. januari 2012 (deel niet SDE installaties in 2011 en jan. 2012 onbekend). Daarbij uitgaand van een bevolkingscijfer van 16,7 miljoen (volgens het CBS). Ergo: Vlaanderen (exclusief Brussel) heeft waarschijnlijk al 42 maal zoveel PV-capaciteit gerealiseerd dan Nederland per hoofd van de bevolking. Vlaanderen is pas sinds 2006 echt "begonnen" met zonnestroom, heeft Nederland, wat al veel langer bezig is, in razend tempo al in 2008 volledig verpletterd, en is nog steeds fors verder aan het uitlopen, ondanks een vanwege tarief degressies te verwachten "afgeremde groei" (met name in het marktsegment van de >10 kWac installaties).
  
  
• In het 2 maart 2012 rapport van VREG werd in detail opgaves in de separate installatie lijst (volledig uitgewerkt door Polder PV) gerept van 427 PV installaties¹ groter dan 10 kWac tm. 30 kWac, 1.409 PV installaties groter dan 30 kWac tm. 100 kWac, maar liefst 1.438 PV-systemen groter dan 100 kWac tm. 1 MWac, en al 108 PV-"Benelux giganten" (lees: registraties, zie voetnoot) groter dan 1 MWac. De laatste 2 categorieën waren verboden cq. terra non grata onder de Nederlandse SDE condities (regelingen 2008-2010). De vraag is of dat onder de nog steeds als een keurslijf zittende invoedingscondities onder de vierde SDE regeling ("SDE-plus"), of de op 13 maart 2012 (alweer vertraagd) geopende (en reeds overtekende) vijfde SDE kermis structureel gaat veranderen. Gezien de inmiddels gecompleteerde (budget bereikt) lijst met aanvragen (SDE 2011) die Polder PV analyseerde gaat dat zeker bij de echt grote projecten >500 kWp (slechts 11 aanvragen bij Agentschap NL op 12 juli 2011, zie ook latere voortgang rapportage) gewoon niet gebeuren, en raakt Nederland nog veel verder achterop. De Hollandse wagon is al lang losgekoppeld van de Europese trein en zinkt langzamerhand verder weg in ons van fossielen vergeven poldermoeras.
  
  ¹Als "installatie" wordt elke entry in de VREG installatielijst beschouwd. Het kan voorkomen, met name bij de zeer grote installaties, dat het systeem is opgeknipt, en dat er dus enkele separate ingaves resulteren bij VREG. Met name Katoen Natie, met al minstens 22 aangemelde deelprojecten van de gigantische, vermoedelijk zo'n 30 MWp grote Loghidden City terminal, is een goed voorbeeld. De meeste installaties worden echter "als geheel" eenmalig ingeschreven bij VREG. Het totale aantal echt als "single site projecten" te beschouwen installaties zal altijd onder het totale aantal "geregistreerde" ingaves bij VREG liggen. Het is lastig te weten te komen wat het precieze aantal is, omdat delen van grote PV-systemen onder verschillende bedrijfsnamen, dochters, e.d. kunnen zijn vermeld (dit is zeer duidelijk bij het enorme Katoen Natie project geschied). Bovendien worden soms (delen van) grotere projecten al rap na oplevering aan investeerders, banken, zonnefondsen e.d. doorverkocht, waardoor mogelijk (delen van) projecten onder een andere naam in de VREG lijsten komen te staan. Het kost veel te veel tijd om dit allemaal bij te houden, en het is ook niet zo zinvol.
  
  
• Begin april 2011 is de grootste enkelvoudige reeds in werking zijnde, onder het groencertificaten systeem vallende PV-installatie in Vlaanderen (volgens VREG data), en anderhalf jaar lang het grootste vrijeveld zonnestroomsysteem in de Benelux (twee maal zo groot als het 2,3 MWp Floriade dak in het Nederlandse Hoofddorp), de 4,70 MWac NV Zonnecentrale Limburg in Heusden-Zolder, met 23.500 zonnepanelen op een voormalig slibdepot (openingsceremonie van de eerste 250 kWac reeds op 18 juni 2009), van de "troon" verstoten. Door een (na wijziging in het 2 mei rapport) 6,22 MWac zonnestroom park bij Overpelt. De projectontwikkelaar IZEN had al de nodige fraaie foto's van het project staan, zie het bijschrift bij de foto verderop.
  
  Het ook in juni 2009 door Enfinity gestarte grote platdak 4,2 MWp project op de fabriekshal van Balta Group in Sint-Baafs-Vijve bij Wielsbeke (NO. van Kortrijk) lijkt inmiddels in de track-record van VREG terug te vinden in de vorm van drie separaat geregistreerde deelsystemen onder Belfuture. En er is later nog veel meer gepland cq. bijgekomen (persbericht Balta). In het 1 december 2011 rapport werden 5 deelsystemen op een Balta vestiging in Tielt separaat opgevoerd in de installatie lijst. Deze 5 deelsystemen horen allemaal bij elkaar (ID nummers in de VREG lijst refereren naar "NOK1 tm. 5"), het project is opgekocht door de Nederlandse energie leverancier Eneco (vermoedelijk wederom een dak pacht constructie), en telt een totaal vermogen van 2.969 kWac (vermoedelijk ongeveer 3,3 MWp generator vermogen). Daarnaast is er ook bij Enfinity een laatste Balta project gerealiseerd, in Waregem, van 3,09 MWac (drie separate opgaves in de VREG data).
  
  In de 1 sep. 2011 lijst zijn twee nieuwe grote projecten opgenomen in de VREG records, het spectaculaire 4.050 kWac "zonnetunnel" project van Enfinity boven het HSL traject tussen Brasschaat en Schoten bij Antwerpen (in 1 "entry" opgenomen). En
  de 4.536 kWac Zonnecentrale in Tongeren, met een minstens even ongebruikelijke hoeveelheid PV overkappingen om zo'n 3.200 dure nieuwe - tijdens hun levensduur zeer veel fossielen verstokende - auto's te beschermen op het terrein van Hödlmayr. Zonnecentrale Limburg NV claimt met een capaciteit van 28 MWp marktleider te zijn op het vlak van zonneparken in de Benelux. Ik zou niet weten wie die claim zou kunnen bestrijden, dus die veer mogen ze waarschijnlijk in hun hoed steken. De grootste "portfolio houder" is echter inmiddels met vlag en wimpel ING Equipment Lease Belgium die al 78 MWac aan - vaak grote - PV-projecten onder haar hoede heeft...
  
  Het op de westoever van de Schelde in het op het grondgebied van provincie Oost-Vlaanderen gelegen "Loghidden City" Kallo hallencomplex is inmiddels, met de sinds eind november 2011 bij VREG geregistreerde 22 aparte ingaves van in totaal 27,9 MWac nu al de grootste "officiële multi-gebouw/single site" installatie van de Benelux (gezien het feit dat het 1 december 2011 rapport nog een nieuw exemplaar "leverde" is nog steeds niet helemaal zeker of daarvan alle deelprojecten nu eindelijk daadwerkelijk bij VREG staan geregistreerd). Het exacte Wp vermogen op die multi-daken site is onbekend, maar met een conservatieve rekenfactor van 1,1, zou het neer kunnen komen op meer dan 30 MWp nominaal generator vermogen (een factor 13 maal het Floriade dak...). Het overkoepelende multi-site project, ook 2 delen in Genk en minstens 5 delen in Gent / Desteldonk / Sint-Kruis-Winkel omvattend, telt minimaal 38,4 MWac van de eind 2009 aangekondigde 40 MW (waarvan lange tijd niet helemaal zeker was of daarmee AC, of DC vermogen werd bedoeld). Heusden-Zolder was al een tijd geleden met Loghidden City "officieel" met een factor 8,0 verpletterd (en het 2,3 Mp Floriade dak in Nederland met een dikke factor 16 voor het gehele multi-site project).
  
  
  

  © Invictus NV, Wilrijk, Flanders, Belgium.
  
  Photo 4 - Video still of the highly interesting, 3 minutes long company video of Invictus NV from Wilrijk (near Antwerp) in which nice shots can be found of the preparations for, and installation work pertaining to this massive roof-oriented PV-project, the biggest in the Benelux countries sofar. Two of the huge logistics halls of Katoen Natie - here on the video still - have been painstakingly filled with Trina Solar modules (big Chinese module quality producer) wherever they seemed to fit.
  

• Groencertificaten - gecertificeerde zonnestroom productie
  Voor het jaar 2009 werden er door de VREG volgens de laatste update van 2 maart 2012 al 141.946 groencertificaten voor zonnestroom uitgereikt en verzilverd in de vorm van "garanties van oorsprong" (ruim vier maal zoveel dan tot nu toe voor productiejaar 2008). Voor 2010 werden er alweer 488.559 stuks ter beschikking van de producenten gesteld (met een grote backlog aan nog uuit te keren certificaten), alweer bijna drie-en-een-half maal zoveel als in het voorafgaande jaar. In 2011 werden er voorlopig al 981.498 nieuwe bijgeschreven, een explosieve groei (al ruim het dubbele van het totale volume voor het hele jaar 2010...). Van 2002 tot en met de rapportage van 2 maart 2012 zijn er in Vlaanderen in totaal 1.653.761 groencertificaten (elk goed voor 1 MWh/stuk) voor uitsluitend PV-installaties verstrekt (accumulatie van alle voorgaande jaren vanaf 2002). Goed voor 1.654 GWh (1,7 Terawattuur) aan gecertificeerde zonnestroom productie. En ook al 10,2% van het totaal aan verstrekte (sinds 2002 geaccumuleerde) groencertificaten voor alle door VREG als "groen" erkende technologieën (daarbij rekening houdend met het feit dat de PV-markt pas echt begon te groeien halverwege 2006). NB: al deze cijfers kunnen achteraf nog steeds worden bijgewerkt.*
  
  
• Het grootste deel van de uitgereikte groencertificaten voor zonestroom is inmiddels ingezet als "garantie van oorsprong". 356.840 certificaten (22% van het totaal) moet nog worden verzilverd.

* Ter vergelijking: in het jaarverslag 2010 van CertiQ voor de "Nederlandse gecertificeerde productie van hernieuwbare elektriciteit" werd gewag gemaakt van slechts 8.309 MWh aan (NB: alleen gecertificeerde) zonnestroom productie voor dat jaar. In het februari 2012 rapport van CertiQ werd een accumulatie (!!!) van 75.051 certificaten (elk 1 MWh, totaal dus 75 GWh) sinds 1 juli 2001 gerapporteerd. Waarmee duidelijk wordt dat de "gecertificeerde" productie van zonnestroom in Nederland (lees: de kWh productie waar het allemaal om draait en die "ten faveure van de kabinets-doelstellingen zou mogen worden toegerekend"...) nog steeds niets voorstelt. Vlaanderen zit daar al bijna een factor 22 overheen. Met daarbij wel de kanttekening dat het overgrote merendeel van de (paar tienduizend) PV-systeempjes in Nederland nooit in de CertiQ gegevens is bijgeschreven en ook nauwelijks wordt bemeten (en zeker niet "gecertificeerd"). Wat duidelijk maakt dat die database dus ook nog eens een zeer slecht referentiekader is om de totale productie van zonnestroom in Nederland aan "af te meten".

© HBVL.be (this webpage). "Free-field" PV-plant, probably the Diepenbeek (?) lock along the Albert Canal between Hasselt and Genk, province of Limburg, Flanders, Belgium.

Photo 5 - An interesting new phenomenon in the application of photovoltaic generation of electricity: solar power plants along channels to produce green electricity for heavy-power locks in those waterways. In the VREG reports, two such PV-plants have been included. A 429 kWac installation near the lock of Mondeolaan in the industrial area of Genk-South. And a 462,5 kWac installation near "Het Sas", the lock along the Boksbeemdenstraat in NE Hasselt (both in Limburg province in the eastern part of Flemish territory). These were registered under the newly erected company Zonnecentrale De Scheepsvaart NV in the December 1, 2010 project listing. A good initiative, but a third project in between these two VREG-registered projects, near Diepenbeek lock, has been seriously questioned earlier in 2010 by a spokesman of the Groen! (green) party since there were a lot of problems with permits and questionable connections between interested parties (see this document with critical questions by spokesman Peeters to Minister of public affairs of the Flemish Parliament, Crevits, and this news item on the HBVL webiste). Also windpower (see photo), and sometimes even hydropower are used for the high electricity needs for such locks.

© IZEN, photo from project page of the PV-system developer

Photo 6 - Aerial view of the two large blocks of the Zonnecentrale Overpelt NV on the premises of the metal producer Nyrstar (old deposit fields for zinc tailings, 13 hectares covered) in the heavy industry complex "Overpelt werkplaatsen" near Overpelt, along the Zuid Willemsvaart canal visible in this photo, running left to right. Location: Flemish province of Limburg not far from the border with Netherlands. System developer IZEN, famous for its beautiful large-scale PV-installations in Belgium, built this project, and the first multicrystalline 54-cell module was symbolically installed on the first of October 2010 by project partners Group Machiels*, Nyrstar, LRM*, Gemeente Overpelt and IZEN (see also press release by Nyrstar and video on TV Limburg). The project has been realized completely in 2010. In the background the greyish-blue surfaces are small artificial lakes, north of the Zuid Willemsvaart in the "Kolonie" region bordering the province of Noord Brabant in Netherlands.

There has been some confusion with respect to the ultimate size of this free field, ground-mounted project, in early 2011 the largest of its kind in the Benelux (pushing long-time 4,7 MWac Heusden-Zolder in the same province to the second position). IZEN claims having built an installation of 7,6 MW, with 36.192 modules (hence, an average-size 210 Wp/module, a normal type for such a modern installation). Thus, most probably 7,6 MWp (STC nominal DC-power) has been realized. However, initially 2 new >6 MWac project entries "Zonnecentrale Overpelt NV" were included in the VREG database in the April 5, 2011 month report. Apparently that was a mistake, since the second 6 MWac entry has been removed in the May 2, 2011 report by VREG.

The 7,6 MW[p] installation reported by IZEN/Nyrstar would generate an amount of electricity "equivalent to that used by 2.000 households". If the frequently quoted 3.500 kWh/household.year would be used, that would indicate a production of 7 GWh/year. Taking the 7,6 MW system size mentioned by IZEN, this would lead to a specific yield of 921 kWh/kWp.year, which seems to be a more realistic value for such an optimized large, south-oriented free-field installation than the often quoted (but rarely documented) 850 kWh/kWp.year specific yield claim in Belgium.

Investment has been "over 20 million Euro" according to IZEN, which means that at least 2,63 Euro/Wp would have been paid for the whole system. Even if it would turn out to be somewhere in the range of € 3,00, it would be a "fair" price for Flanders, where sometimes developers complain to the government that planned degressions of the value of the green certificates earned by PV-installations are going to fast for large, utility-size systems such as the present one. That could claim 35 Eurocent/kWh produced for 20 years since this particular project was realized in 2010...

* Group Machiels and LRM are the most important shareholders of "Zonnecentrale Limburg", planning more of these large-scale PV projects on parcels of waste land not usable for other purposes. Nyrstar consumes all the electricity produced on-site.

http://www.izen.be/professioneel/nieuws_2/pv/izen-bouwt-grootste-zonnecentrale-van-de-benelux/

Photo 7 - The future of the Flanders / Belgium solar market? Small-scale photovoltaics on an ancient building in the heart of Gent (16 multicrystalline modules, possibly a generator of 3 kWp or slightly more). Most probably with considerable shading effects by the chimneys at the eastern and western sides of the system. And more troubles looming from the high buildings surrounding this system. A somewhat different scale as that shown by the many hundreds of large industrial PV-installations that materialised in 2009-2010. But at least a stable basis to build upon for further photovoltaic development in Belgium.

Photo taken during Intersolution visit in Gent, by the webmaster of Polder PV, at the end of freezing-cold January 2011.

Conclusion PV-capacity in Flanders Region/Conclusie Vlaanderen
Based on the newly revised, but still not "definitive" data (VREG year reports (2009, 2010), and, in particular, the latest revision/update, March 2, 2012) and the preliminary results for 2010, we can conclude with the following estimates (rounded figures). See also graphic year results on separate webpage, on which also a final update is given (spreadsheet by VREG with year data).

Met de herziene gegevens zoals hierboven weergegeven (o.a. gebaseerd op de jaarrapporten van VREG, de laatste van 2009 en 2010, en vooral de revisie gepubliceerd 2 maart 2012), en de voorlopige resultaten voor 2010, kom ik op een voorlopige schatting voor PV in Vlaanderen (afgeronde getallen). Zie ook het grafische jaaroverzicht op een aparte pagina, waar ook de allerlaatste update wordt weergegeven (VREG spreadsheet met jaar data).

Accumulation 2011 (VREG)/Accumulatie 2011 (VREG) 1.538,3 MWac (1.692 MWp*)
Growth in 2011 (VREG)/Groei in 2011 (VREG) 647,8 MWac (713 MWp)

73% growth with respect to 890,5 MWac end of 2010
73% groei t.o.v. 890,5 MWac eind 2010

Accumulation 2010 (VREG)/Accumulatie 2010 (VREG) 890,5 MWac (980 MWp*)
Growth in 2010 (VREG)/Groei in 2010 (VREG) 344,4 MWac (379 MWp)

63% growth with respect to 546,1 MWac end of 2009
63% groei t.o.v. 546,1 MWac eind 2009

Accumulation 2009 (VREG)/Accumulatie 2009 (VREG) 546,1 MWac (601 MWp)
Growth in 2009 (VREG)/Groei in 2009 (VREG) 453,0 MWac (498 MWp)

488% growth with respect to 92,8 MWac end of 2008
488% groei t.o.v. 92,8 MWac eind 2008

Accumulation 2008 (VREG)/Accumulatie (VREG) 2008 92,8 MWac (102 MWp)
Growth in 2008 (VREG)/Groei in 2008 (VREG) 67,1 MWac (74 MWp)

261% growth with respect to 25,7 MWac end of 2007
261% groei t.o.v. 25,7 MWac eind 2007

* Conservative conversion factor maximum inverter AC power > MWp generator power (DC): 1,1

Increase of yearly growth 2011 with respect to that in 2010/Toename van de jaarlijkse groei van 2011 t.o.v. die in 2010: factor 1,16

Decrease of yearly growth 2010 with respect to that in 2009/Afname van de jaarlijkse groei van 2010 t.o.v. die in 2009: factor 0,13

Increase of yearly growth 2009 with respect to that in 2008/Toename van de jaarlijkse groei van 2009 t.o.v. die in 2008: factor 1,87

Number of inhabitants Flanders Region (exclusive of Brussels, which has 1.145.292 inhabitants, this link, status: December 1, 2011): 6.251.983 (Vlaams Gewest, 2010)
Aantal inwoners Vlaams Gewest (= exclusief Brussel, wat 1.145.292 inwoners telt, deze link, status: 1 december 2011): 6.251.983 (Wikipedia; ref. year 2010)

PV-capacity per inhabitant Flanders Region estimated for end of 2011: 271 Wp/capita**
PV-capaciteit per inwoner van Vlaams Gewest geschat voor eind van 2011: 271 Wp/hoofd**

** (Factor AC > DC: 1,1). End of 2009 this was approximately 96 Wp/capita (according to most recent VREG data for that year, published March 2, 2012). See also interactive graph.

The rest of Belgium: Walloon region and Brussels (updated up till 2011 - preliminary data)
De rest van België: Wallonië en Brussel (ververst tot en met eind 2011 - voorlopige schattingen)

Wallonië/Region Wallonne/Walloon Region ("Waalse Gewest")

Latest news: data February 29, 2012
CWaPE produced latest data on Walloon Region's development in photovoltaics. Date stamped February 29, 2012.

• Total new "decentralized production installations" (French: "Unité de production décentralisée" (UPD) in 2011: 107.654 kVA, with 20.671 installations. The major part of these consists of photovoltaic systems.
  
  
• Accumulation "Solaire" on February 29, 2012: 206.252 kVA with 44.495 installations. That is 99,8% of total volume of 206.688 kVA decentralized capacity, and 99,8% of total of 44.565 UPD installations.
  
  
• Taking these percentages for the new built capacity mentioned in the first paragraph, the following new photovoltaic capacity could have been added in 2011: 0,998 * 107,654 = 107,4 MVA (= MWac). With 0,998 * 20.671 = 20.630 installations. And an estimated average of 5,21 kWac (app. 5,73 kWp) per PV-system.
  
  
• For impact on total number, see section below.

Apere data at start of 2012
The development of "renewable" electricity ("électricité verte") in the French-speaking part of Belgium, Wallonië (including a small enclave in which German is spoken) is regulated by the Commission Wallonne pour l'Énergie, CWApE. In their numbers also fossil-derived combined power generation is considered as "green" electricity, which is, of course highly debatable. These installations also receive "green certificates", in French "certificats de garantie d'origine". The Walloon "renewable" market is split in two segments, installations up till 10 kilowatt (AC, or "kilovoltampère", kVA), for which certificats are relatively easy to obtain and to get paid for. And the category larger than 10 kW. The bulk of the photovoltaic installations in Wallonië is residential, and thus is included in the "small" category. At the end of 2008 there were only 7 installations >10 kWac, with a combined power of 167 kWac known as "certified" in the CWApE registration.

The website of CWaPE is not very clear and it takes a lot of time to find the documents in which market development for PV is described. This, in addition with bureaucrats' French not being the easiest language, makes interpretation of the data tedious. It would be nice if a separate statistics page (for photovoltaics and for other renewable energy options) would be included, such as can be found on the website of their Flemish colleagues of VREG.

The most convenient, "rough" overview has been given by the French organisation Apere which publishes the bi-lingual magazine "Renouvelle", or (Dutch alternative) "Hernieuws". This magazine publishes the trends in the three regions of the country, Flanders/Vlaanderen, Walloon Region/Wallonië, and Brussels, on a yearly basis. In the Januari 2012 issue this graph appeared for the status in Wallonië:

In this graph (© Apere), which apparently gives the AC-capacity of the PV-installations (in the French-speaking part of Belgium, reference is given to the "MWc"-capacity), I added the year on year growth percentages in the top segment. In orange columns, the accumulated capacities at the end of each year, in dark-blue columns the yearly growth volumes. The results for 2011 have been extrapolated in a linear fashion by Apere, based on the last known data from September 2011. Hence, these data might still change (Walloon Region has known a typical "end of year rush" of installations, hence some uncertainty with regard to the precise year volume still lingers).

Like many countries or regions still at the start of their PV-market development in modern times, Walloon Region more or less doubles its year volume each year. The first years in this still relatively young market saw much larger growth.

In a more recent listing by CWaPE (January 31, 2012), the >10 kWac inventory accumulated 90 installations with a total AC capacity of 6,492 MWac. Average "large system size" in that list was 72,1 kWac per PV-system. The two biggest installations there had a size of "only" 250 kWac (one in Ghlin west of Mons, and one in Strépy-Bracquegnies west of La Louvière).

If we subtract that 6,5 MWac of "large-size" installations from the calculated end of 2011 volume by Apere, still a very strong volume of app. 180 MWac remains for the installations up till 10 kWac. Hence: the Walloon market is absolutely dominated by small residential PV-installations, and the market for big systems on flat roofs of large companies still has not materialized, or is still in a very young stage of development. This is a very big contrast with the Flemish market, which has a large segment of installated capacity in the commercial domain (status 2011: 46 percent with respect to accumulated capacity...).

Also note that in one year time the Walloon Region has surpassed the total accumulation of photovoltaic capacity in the Netherlands (only appr. 112 MWp nominal generator capacity as of Jan. 1, 2012) with almost double that volume... (Flanders had done so in 2008, and since then left Netherlands far behind with record new volumes in 2009-2011).

Note that data presented below are from older research, they will have to be updated.

^^^ (Note: Y-axis with logarithmic scale!) Number of certified installations receiving green certificates that were registered with CWaPE end of 2008. Stacked: installations 10 kWac or smaller (light green), and on top of that those larger than 10 kWac (dark green). At left PV-installations, in that year 2.678 installations were registered. Data: CWaPE 2008 report (pdf)

2008
On October 13, 2009 the 2008 report was published. The most important data, status end of 2008:

• 2.671 PV-systems smaller than, or equal to 10 kWac, plus 7 installations bigger tha 10 kWac, total 2.678 installations (2.642 of which were admitted in 2008 to the green certificates programme).
  
  
• 8,761 MWac small category and 0,167 MWac big category, total 8,928 MWac(8,8 MWac has been admitted in 2008, with 8,675 MWac "small", and 0,125 MWac "big"). Note: in 2007 only 0,128 MWac PV-capacity had been certified by CWaPE.
  
  
• Average system size of new installations in 2008: 3,29 kWac for small category, 20,83 kWac for the big category.
  
  
• Largest certified installation: Société Alan & Co in Verviers, 340 square meter/264 monocristalline, Belgium Issol modules of 150-160 Wp (see pdf presentation), total size 42 kWac.
  
  
• Share of certified PV-installations in total volume of "green certificates": 93,8% (numbers), but only 1,3% (8,9 MWac) with respect to nominal power (total power of all production facilities receiving certificates: 675,8 MW, of which 174,2 MW has been fossil-based WKK (co-generation), 161,0 MW windturbines, 128,4 MW WKK with biomass feed-in, 107,5 MW hydropower, and 95,6 MW pure biomass plants).
  
  
• Share of PV in new capacity in 2008: 98,7% (numbers), and 11,6% (8,8 MWac) for capacity (other new installations admitted in that year: 37,7 MW windturbines, 20,7 MW WKK with biomass feed-in, 8,7 MW fossil-based WKK, and 0,3 MW hydropower; total new capacity accepted by CWaPE in 2008: 76,2 MW).

^^^ (Note: Y-axis [kW] with logarithmic scale!) Total accumulated certified capacity of installations that receive green certificates and that were registered by CWaPE end of 2008. Stacked: installations with max. size of 10 kWac (light green), and systems larger than 10 kWac (dark green). Left the PV-installations, in total 8,928 MWac registered. Data: CWaPE 2008 report (pdf)

2009
An interesting diagram with "small generation facilitie" in Walloon Region by CWaPE:

Detail from screendump of CWaPE document [pdf] showing enormous growth in capacity of "installations for decentralized production" of maximum 10 kVA (kilovoltampère) in the Walloon region, since November 2008 (3 data points). Please refer to the last set of three columns - the rest of the graph showed the distribution among the different net manager regions. "Régie de Wavre" is just visible on the left in this graph, the right ensemble shows the relevant total for all net regions ( "Total général"). The columns most probably represent (or: include) all the < 10 kVA PV-installations connected to the grid in this one-year period. Growth is staggering: from app. 7,7 kVA in November 2008 (blue, "nov-08"), via 25,3 kVA in August 2009 (red, "août-09"), up till 40,1 kVA in November 2009 (green, "nov-09"). Difference between the November data is 32,4 kVA of installed capacity. This will not be exclusively PV, but it certainly represents the booming private PV-market segment for the biggest part.

More info
Other interesting data can be derived from the ef4.be database containing grid-connected PV-installations in the Walloon region and capital Brussels (the latter under postal code 1000, interactive sorting possible). The database had almost 4.900 installations end of January 2012 (most: residential projects).

Two typical bigger PV-projects in the French regions of Belgium are the "Galaxia" 300 kWp façade project in Libin-Transinne (province of Luxembourg), that even made it in an article in the September 2009 issue of Photon. According to Photon, it should have 3.648 multicrystalline modules on the roof of a joint-visiting centre for space-industry companies. The strange thing is, that, more than two years later in the recent CWaPE listing for "bigger" projects only an entry of 152 kW has been assigned to the Galaxia project.

In the ef4.be database also a 55 kWp installation on the Belgacom Towers in Saint-Josse-ten-Noode (direct north of the Brussels city center) has been included, with 250 pieces of 220 Wp SolarFabrik modules. However, this entry can not be found at all in the present CWaPE listing. This shows that apparently there are hiatuses in the "official" data, and that more capacity might have been installed than the authorities think...

Incentives Walloon region are decreased
Also in Walloon region, incentives are reduced, as PV-modules become cheaper and cheaper in time. For reference, see these reports:

http://tinyurl.com/yfh5jzj (link on Photovoltaikforum)
http://www.bruxelles-renouvelable.be/sites/default/files/hen20_Web_press.pdf (pdf 1,52 MB; threat of worsening condition for Walloon region, in Dutch)

Conclusion PV-capacity in Walloon Region/Conclusie Wallonië
With the most recent data given by Apere, I come to this estimate for PV in the Walloon region:

Accumulation 2011/Accumulatie 2011 186 MWac*
Growth in 2011/Groei in 2011 94 MWac

102% growth with respect to 92 MWac end of 2009
102% groei t.o.v. 92 MWac eind 2009

Accumulation 2010/Accumulatie 2010 92 MWac
Growth in 2010/Groei in 2010 46 MWac

96% growth with respect to 47 MWac end of 2009
96% groei t.o.v. 47 MWac eind 2009

Accumulation 2009/Accumulatie 2009 47 MWac
Growth in 2009/Groei in 2009 37 MWac**

422% growth with respect to 9 MWac end of 2008
422% groei t.o.v. 9 MWac eind 2008

Accumulation 2008/Accumulatie 2008 9 MWac
Growth in 2008/Groei in 2008 9 MWac**

Number of inhabitants Walloon Region: 3.456.775
Aantal inwoners Brussel: 3.456.775 (Wikipedia)

PV-capacity per inhabitant of the Walloon Region expected in 2011: 54 Wac/capita
PV-capaciteit per inwoner van Wallonië verwacht in 2011: 54 Wac/hoofd

Note that in 2012 approximately 24,6 MWac with 4.314 new photovoltaic installations have been added, based on a report date-stamped Feb. 29, 2012 by CWaPE.

* Preliminary results, calculated from status September 2011.
** Photon auteur Christoph Podewils wrote in June 2009 about 9 MW newly installed capacity in 2008 and "possibly 20 MW new in 2009" for Walloon region. These estimates have long been overhauled by more aggressive new capacities reported.

Brussel/Bruxelles/Brussels (Apere estimate end of 2011)

For Brussels we must, regrettably, check with still another authority in the country full of bureaucrats and biblical language problems stemming from the age of Babylon. The name is, officially, "Reguleringscommissie voor energie in het Brussels hoofdstedelijk gewest", Brugel. For some older statistics, see below.

However, also here Apere has given a helping hand in the same report with the numbers for Walloon Region. Here is the verbose result for Brussels:

Graph © www.renouvelle.org. Note: most recent graph from Renouvelle Jan. 2012, showing slightly deviating numbers for Brussels, a little bit higher than those published separately by Apere).

Again, apparently AC-capacity of the PV-installations, to which I have added the YOY growth percentages in the top segment. In orange columns, the accumulated capacities at the end of each year, in dark-blue columns the yearly growth volumes. The results for 2011 have again been extrapolated in a linear fashion by Apere/www.renouvelle.org, based on the last known data from September 2011.

In contrast to the Flemish and Walloon PV-market, Brussels has seen a deteriorating trend with newly build installations and strongly decreasing YOY percentages. Of course, Brussels has little space for large-size installations, but the Walloon region revealed that even if there would be "space" available, that is not sufficient for true market growth (it did not take place in Wallonië). Brussels has lots of high rise buildings and therefore, space in the built environment is scarce or at the best "troublesome" from an installers point of view (lots of shading, small surfaces, problematic roof access, etc.). In addition, the authors from www.renouvelle.org say that Brussels never had a specific plan to develop a photovoltaic market of their own, like their Walloon colleagues have deployed (Plan Solwatt, end of 2007).

Hence, the "boom" of 2009 in the capital of Belgium has not replicated in following years. In 2011 up till now, even in the "updated" version published in the Renouvelle web magazin, sofar only 1,1 MWac of new installations have been reported in 2011, bringing the total accumulation for Brussels on a meagre 7,0 MWac. Which is a very bad perspective for the capital of Belgium. Brussels remains a "mini-market" within the overkill of Flemish PV-installations. Even the national airport is not on Brussels soil, and therefore, the 1,66 MWp installation on the Brucargo terminal is counted by VREG for Flanders, not by BRUGEL for Brussels...

There is, however, one bright lightray in these gray surroundings. The TIR centre in Brussels harbour area would receive 17.000 PV-modules this year with a total capacity of 1,6 MW, to be installed by the company Blue Lines (see article of October 6, 2011, on website Lloyd). However, in September 2012 it appeared that "only" 1,2 MWp has been installed (details to be found in my article of September 27, 2012). That addition would be 17% of the accumulated volume in Brussels reported for end of June 2012 (6,9 MW according to Brugel)...

From Brugel older - but illustrative data - from 2008, in a publication dated October 30, 2009.

^^^ Realisation of PV in Brussels according to Brugel report 2008. Blue: private systems, Red: "other". Accumulation 2008 according to Brugel: 570,5 + 106,06 = 676,56 kWac. © Brugel, 2009 (pdf)

Data from this older report:

• The number of certified PV-installations in Brussel grew from 5 (2006) and 29 (2007) to 295 systems in 2008. In 2008 there was an accumulation of 283 certified residential installations (95,9%) and 12 "other" systems, with 266 system newly realised with repect to the previous year. Apparently also older installations were certified by then.
  
  
• The certified capacity grew from 43,92 kWac (2006) and 81,93 kWac (2007) to a volume of 676,56 kWac in the year 2008. Residential systems claimed a capacity of 570,5 kWac (84,3%), companies had a share of 106,06 kWac. Newly certified installation capacity was 594,63 kWac in 2008 according to Brugel, but Bruxelles-renouvelables.be claimed only 532 kWac of new physical capacity for that year.
  
  
• Average system size in 2008 according to Brugel was 2,02 kWac for residential installations, and 8,84 kWac for systems in the commercial segment. Bruxelles-renouvelables.be claimed an average new system size of 1,9 kWac in 2008 and 2,4 kWac for 2009.
  
  
• The largest installation claimed up till 2008 (most recent list on Brugel site is from that year!) is a 43,56 kWp systeem (198 modules of 220 Wp, see news item) on the flat roof of Cliniques Universitaires Saint-Luc on the Avenue Hippocrate. In the Brussels sub-community Ukkel most new installations were recorded by then (28 system, 460 square meter).
  
  
• Share of PV in number of certified installations was 92,48% in 2008; with respect to nominal capacity it was only 3,33%.
  
  
• Energy production of PV-installations registered October 1, 2009 by Brugel was 77.653 kWh (plm. 78 MWh) in 2008. That was only 0,12% of total volume covered by certificates, in which fossil-driven WKK (co-generation) is the driving, dominant factor (99,56%). The number of green certificates for PV (valued higher than other options) was a little bit higher, 1,73%.
  
  
• Bruxelles-renouvelables.be recorded very high all-in system prices for PV-systems in Brussels: 6,9 Euro per Wattpiek in 2008, and still a shocking 6,4 Euro per Wattpiek in 2009.

2009
In an article on the informative website of Bruxelles-renouvelable.be 2009 trends have been outlined. Their estimate was app. 3 MWp end of year, but this has been underestimated (see above for more recent data). They provided this graph:

<<< Realisation of PV in Brussels according to Bruxelles-renouvelable.be website (citing "Leefmilieu Brussel" as source). With prediction for 2009 (citing Brugel as source). Total accumulation expected to grow to app. 3 MWp. BHG = "Brussels Hoofdstedelijk Gewest" © Bruxelles-renouvelable.be (this link).

Conclusion PV-capacity in Brussels/Conclusie Brussel

With the most recent data provided above, new estimates for Brussels are as follows:

Accumulation 2011/Accumulatie 2011 7 MWac*
Growth in 2011/Groei in 2011 1,1 MWac

19% growth with respect to 5,9 MWac end of 2009
19% groei t.o.v. 5,9 MWac eind 2009

Accumulation 2010/Accumulatie 2010 5,9 MWac
Growth in 2010/Groei in 2010 1,5 MWac

34% growth with respect to 4,4 MWac end of 2009
34% groei t.o.v. 4,4 MWac eind 2009

Accumulation 2009/Accumulatie 2009 4,4 MWac
Growth in 2009/Groei in 2009 3,7 MWac

633% growth with respect to 0,6 MWac end of 2008
633% groei t.o.v. 0,6 MWac eind 2008

Accumulation 2008/Accumulatie 2008 0,6 MWac
Growth in 2008/Groei in 2008 0,6 MWac

Number of inhabitants Brussels: 1.145.292
Aantal inwoners Brussel: 1.145.292 (Wikipedia)

PV-capacity per inhabitant of Brussels expected in 2011: 6 Wac/capita
PV-capaciteit per inwoner van Brussel verwacht in 2011: 6 Wac/hoofd

Estimation for PV-capacity (growth in) Belgium
Schatting PV-capaciteit geheel België

Based upon the (preliminary and monthly revised) data for Flanders (VREG), Walloon Region (CWaPE), and Brussels (BRUGEL) in combination with the latest numbers provided by Apere/Renouvelle in the previous sections, we can make rough estimates for the whole of Belgium:

2008 accumulation: 93 + 9 + 0,6 = 102,6 MWac

(shares 91, 9, and 0,6%, respectively, for Flanders, Walloon Region, and Brussels)

EurObserv'ER estimated in their overview of development of the PV-market in Europe (10th State of Renewables report, publ. March 2011, download from this page) for Belgium as a whole 70,870 MWp (DC capacity) accumulated grid-connected capacity for 2008. A strong under-estimation at that time.

2009 accumulation: 546 + 47 + 4,4 = 597,4 MWac**

(shares 91, 8, and 0,7%, respectively, for Flanders, Walloon Region, and Brussels).

Growth 2008 >>> 2009 for Belgium as a whole: approximately 495 MWac (rounded). By which the "small" country Belgium possibly more than doubled the growth volume of its sunny neighbour France (Eur'ObservER / barobilan11: 215 MWp DC capacity new grid-connected in 2009, for Belgium strictly grid-connected capacity [including inverter in place!] Eur'ObservER published only 324 MWp of new capacity in 2009)...

2010 accumulation: 890 + 92 + 5,9 = 987,9 MWac

(shares 90, 9, and 0,6%, respectively, for Flanders, Walloon Region, and Brussels)

Growth 2009 >>> 2010 for Belgium as a whole: approximately 391 MWac.

(Eur'ObservER / barobilan11 had a preliminary volume of 518 MWp in their overview, which relates to the fact that installations not yet formally connected tot the grid end of 2009, are included in their 2010 statistics. Volume for 2009 + 2010 for Eur'ObservER data is 842 MWp, AC capacity according to Belgium administrations has been 886 MWac, which could account to a volume of app. 975 MWp, 10% more...)

2011 accumulation: 1.538 + 186 + 7,0 = 1.731 MWac****

(shares 89, 11, and 0,4%, respectively, for Flanders, Walloon Region, and Brussels)

All-in YOY growth Belgium 2010 >>> 2011: 743 MWac (growth of 75%). Still much capacity addition to be expected, in particular in Flanders/VREG stats.

Number of inhabitants Belgium - PBR data 2011* is used, 11,0 million:

PV-capacity per inhabitant of Belgium expected end of 2011 : 157,4 Wac/capita. If that number is correct, than a photovoltaic module of app. 173 Wp (DC) might be in place per inhabitant of Belgium. A very good place in the rankings (in 2010 Belgium would have occupied the fourth position in between Spain and Italy).

* 2011 World Population Data Sheet [pdf]of the Population Reference Bureau of the United Nations: 11,0 million halfway 2011.

** The renewable energy promoting organisation Edora published an extensive study with renewable energy market predictions for 2020 in February 2010. In that report, a graph has been published in which Edora claims that the Belgium photovoltaic market could have accumulated to 304 MWp (DC capacity) in 2009. That has appeared to be a very low estimate, far below actual realisation. See article published on February 13, 2010.

*** In Photon International of February 2010, in an article by Garrett Hering and William P. Hirshman (including reference to earlier preliminary data and prognoses by Polder PV), the following preliminary estimates were given by Jo Neyens of BelPV (233 MWp added in 2009 in Belgium), as well as by Photon Consulting that made a prognosis of 275 MWp growth for 2009 (and a forecast of 500 MWp for 2010...).

**** Preliminary results that can be adjusted considerably.

Previous articles about the Flemish/Belgium market on Polder PV (Dutch)
Eerdere stukken op Polder PV over het PV-mirakel Vlaanderen...

... maar wat levert dat nou allemaal op, daar in Vlaanderen/België? Zoet en zuur (2 februari 2012): Energie productie resultaten bij zonnestroom installaties in Vlaanderen.
Eerste voorlopige resultaten PV-markt Vlaanderen: al minstens 519 MWac nieuwbouw in 2011 (9 januari 2012): Met nieuwe grafieken voor jaargroei cijfers PV markt Vlaanderen.

2011: Record PV vermogen in Vlaanderen (24 december 2011): Grootste groei van PV-capaciteit in Vlaanderen verwacht voor 2011.
Vlaanderen stoomt lustig weiter met reeds 402 MWac in 2011 (12 december 2011). Onverwacht (grote) Nederlandse participaties in PV-capaciteit Vlaanderen.
VREG update Vlaanderen: groei zet onvervaard door (23 november 2011): Met nieuwe grafiek: capaciteit op datum van eerste uitreiking groencertificaten.
Grenzschlängeln (10 oktober 2011): Fiets avonturen rond Zuid-Limburgse grenzen, inclusief enkele zonnestroom ontdekkingen in de Voerstreek en aangrenzend Wallonië - foto reportage.
Dansen op zonne-energie (25 augustus 2011): Fiesta festival in Gent met faciliteiten werkend op zonnestroom.
Polder PV feliciteert Vlaanderen: > 1 GWp ! (23 augustus 2011): In de zomer van 2011 is Vlaanderen waarschijnlijk de magische grens van 1 GWp aan zonnestroom capaciteit gepasseerd.
Is de "zonnestroom park" sector in Vlaanderen dood? (23 mei 2011): Donkere tijden voor grote zonnestroom projecten in Vlaanderen.
VREG update Vlaamse PV-markt 2 mei 2011 (19 mei 2011): Update met kaartje zonnestroom capaciteit per gemeente in Vlaanderen.
Surprise machine Vlaanderen draait door (27 april 2011): Fraaie grootschalige PV-projecten en de eerste honderd-duizend installaties gerapporteerd door VREG.
Volledige revisie en aanvulling PV marktcijfers Vlaanderen (31 maart 2011): N.a.v. het gesignaleerde "DC/AC" capaciteitsprobleem zijn door Polder PV alle cijfers en statistieken van de Vlaamse zonnestroom markt herzien.
Herziening jaarlijkse groei data Vlaamse PV-markt (21 maart 2011): DC wordt AC: het capaciteitsprobleem voor het bepalen van de marktgroei in Vlaanderen nader aan de tand gevoeld.
Weer een artikel van Polder PV op SolarPlaza: Belgische marktontwikkeling (8 maart 2011): Op verzoek van SolarPlaza produceerde Polder PV een analyse van de zonnestroom markt in België in 2010.
Links tegenover Rechts: Antwerpen wil nu ook vet scoren met zonnestroom (11 februari 2011): Hoe Antwerpen de mogelijkheid schiep om vet van bil te gaan met zonnestroom, daarbij jaloers kijkend naar de andere kant van de Schelde...
Vlaanderen PV-update met nieuwe grafieken (7 februari 2011): Nieuw type grafieken voor de statistische analyse van de Vlaamse zonnestroom afzet markt.
Update Vlaanderen PV-markt - voorlopig 2010 320,1 MWp nieuwe registraties bij VREG (24 januari 2011): Met extrapolatie grafiek om te bepalen wanneer Vlaanderen 1 GW aan omvormer capaciteit voor zonnestroom kan hebben bereikt.
Marktgroei NL, VL, BRD - zo maar wat leuke, en tale-telling PV cijfertjes (6 januari 2011): Vergelijking van drie onvergelijkbare zonnestroom afzet markten.
Kleine eindejaars-rush Vlaanderen (4 januari 2011): Definitieve degressie voorstel voor verlagen van de waarde van groencertificaten voor zonnestroom in Vlaanderen (interactieve grafiek). En veel te lage inschatting van de afzet van nieuwe PV-capaciteit in 2010 in een artikel op Energeia.

Triodos pakt weer vet uit bij financiering 2 MWp Vlaamse PV-centrale... (20 december 2010): Triodos Renewable Europe Fund financiert weer een grote PV centrale op een logistiek centrum in Puurs, Vlaanderen.
Vlaanderen zet nog steeds behoorlijk wat PV-capaciteit bij (13 december 2010): Vlaanderen bereikt 100 Wp PV-capaciteit per hoofd van de bevolking.
Vlaamse Regering past groencertificaten regeling aan (11 december 2010): Degressie van de waarde van de groencertificaten voor zonnestroom alsnog besloten, met kleine aanpassing. Interactieve degressie grafiek.
Freya van den Bossche terug naar tekentafel in Vlaanderen (2 december 2010): Slechts uitstel van executie: voortvarende minister die zonnestroom hard af wilde knijpen in Vlaanderen moet voorlopig even pas op de plaats maken.
Geen moord en brand bij zonnestroom in Vlaanderen (28 november 2010): Bij de zuiderburen zijn ze minder boulevard-minded rond veiligheid van PV-installaties - daar gaat de sector gewoon overleggen met de brandweer korpsen hoe risico's voor het personeel te minimaliseren.
Groene trammelant in het schone (?) Vlaamse land (26 november 2010): Begin van het einde: Vlaamse regering gaat ingrijpen in de (veel te lucratieve) incentive pyramide voor zonnestroom.
Vlaanderen haalt weer verpletterend uit: 68,3 MWp nieuwe registraties bij VREG in juli (8 augustus 2010): Met tale-telling video-still van "een van de heftige aansluitingen" van het multi-site Katoen Natie Project (totaal 40 MW zonnestroom capaciteit).
Voorspelbare fraude in Vlaanderen bij jaarwissel groencertificaten waarde verlaging (22 juli 2010): "Creatief omgaan" met de "overgangsregeling" die van overheidswege was verzonnen om de bijbouw boom eind 2009 op te vangen leidde tot voorspelbare "dubieuze praktijken".
Naar de vuilnisbelt met die zonnepanelen! (18 juni 2010): Plannen voor zonnestroom park met 9.800 PV modules op afval stortplaats bij Appels.
Volledige update mei 2010 Vlaamse PV markt (15 juni 2010): Vlaanderen passeert met gezwinde spoed de 400 MWp drempel en Polder PV past de statistiek pagina aan.
Vlaanderen op naar 350 MWp PV accumulatie (5 mei 2010, achtergronden van het zoveelste PV-record bij de zuiderburen)

Kerstman strooit rijkelijk met cadeau's bij de Vlamingen: PV naar ... 236 MWp (24 december 2009)
ASN en zonnestroom II: 2,6 MWp project Willebroek (12 december 2009)
Tale-telling VREG grafiek - Vlaanderen neemt definitief afscheid van Nederland (10 december 2009)
Sjoemelen mag - voor de ghoede saeck II. Met 40 MWp PV-moois (9 december 2009, Katoen Natie pakt grootschalig uit met PV)
Sjoemelen mag - voor de ghoede saeck I (9 december 2009, "overgangsmaatregel" 45 >> 35 eurocent/kWh)
Meest geplaatste module types België cf. Sonnenertrag (11 november 2009)
Je kunt ook overdrijven... (10 november 2009, Vlaamse ondernemers willen ook het Duitse EEG...)
Vlaanderen: geen "injectietarief" PV-bezitters, ook voor andere DE-opties overwogen (3 november 2009)
Andere buurman pruttelt verder: Vlaanderen plaatst september 18 MWp bij (7 oktober 2009)
Vlaanderen verplettert Nederland met zonnestroom: > 122 MegaWattpiek geïnstalleerd. (18 augustus 2009)
Progressie PV Nederland en Vlaanderen (6 juli 2009)
Waar een wil is is een weg (7 juni 2009, met ook enkele data voor Wallonië)
Zonnestroom in Vlaanderen groeit lekker verder: 90,8 MWp (7 mei 2009)
Keerzijde van het (Vlaamse) PV succes (29 april 2009)
"Het" is geschied: Vlaanderen is Nederland voorbij gescheurd (9 april 2009)
Tale telling passage (22 maart 2009)

CBS velt "het oordeel" over PV-Nederland, Vlaanderen rukt razendsnel op (3 december 2008)
Belgische PV-markt groeit snoeihard (29 augustus 2008)
Lieven Lefebvre: dikke "hollandsche" PV-installatie (17 juni 2008)
Oh la la... (18 maart 2008)

Such is the incredible power of a feed-in tariff... (11 oktober 2007)
Vlaanderen op weg naar record PV-jaar (26 februari 2007)

Inspiratie opdoen bij de zuiderburen (19 oktober 2005, begin van de "revolutie")

... en een snuifje Wallonië

Solaire Ardennoise (13 oktober 2008)

Sources/Bronnen

Segaar, P.J. (2012). Belgium’s 2011 PV market beats previous record year 2009: 687 MW, with more still in the pipeline - SolarPlaza / The Solar Future Belgium '12 (March 6, 2012). Electronic publication (summary of present web page, update). See also pdf.

Segaar, P.J. (2011). Belgian Solar Market Cooling Down Following End of 2009 Boom. - SolarPlaza (March 1, 2011). Electronic publication (summary of present web page, update of Walloon and Brussels region). See also pdf.

Hirshman, W.P. & Podewils, C. (2011). Flandern will Vergütung kürzen. - Photon 1/2011: p. 13.

Hirshman, W.P. (2010). Gedämpfte Erwartungen. Belgien legte 2009 bei der Photovoltaikleistung gewaltig zu - nun ist ein Dämpfer programmiert. - Photon 9/2010: pp. 17-18.

Segaar, P.J. (2010). Flanders leading the way in Belgium with photovoltaics. - SolarPlaza (April 1, 2010). Electronic publication (summary of present web page). See also pdf.

Podewils, C. (2009). Boom-boom Belgien. Warum die Solarmärkte in Flandern und in der Wallonie um 100 Prozent jährlich wachsen. - Photon 6/2009: pp. 24-26.

Köpke, R. (2007). "A lot will happen here". The Belgian solar market is considered promising - especially when looking at the potential of the PV industry. - Photon International 3/2007: pp. 20-53 (landen special).

Relevante organisaties: ODE België, Vlaams Energie Agentschap, VREG. Voor Wallonië: "Portail de l'énergie en Région wallonne", certificatie instantie CWAPE. Voor Brussel: Brugel, resp. Apere, "hernieuwbare energie in Brussel".

Overzicht van alle organisaties die met (hernieuwbare) energie van doen hebben in België:
http://www.brugel.be/Public/Menu.php?ID=12&siteID=2&language=dut

EurObserv'ER rapport 2008 met (verwachte) marktdata voor (o.a.) België in de jaren 2007-2008 downloaden van:
http://www.eurobserv-er.org/downloads.asp

PV in Vlaanderen:
http://www.photon.de/news_archiv/details.aspx?cat=News_Archiv&sub=Politik&pub=1&parent=2755 (17 september 2010, fors afwijkende getallen voor de bijbouw in België cq. Vlaanderen, waarschijnlijk door de eind tot eind februari 2010 pas "officieel" aan het net gegane PV-systemen nog bij 2009 te rekenen; Duitstalig artikel)
http://www.ode.be/index.php?page=elec-uit-zon-markt (marktontwikkeling Vlaanderen tot en met 2007)
http://www.vreg.be/nl/06_sector/04_groenestroomproducenten/08_statistieken/04_groenestroom.asp (meest actuele, uitgebreide detail data van de VREG, loopt echter soms 1-2 maanden achter wegens overwerkte administraties)
http://www.vreg.be/nl/06_sector/04_groenestroomproducenten/08_statistieken/01_rapporten.asp (rapporten pagina van VREG met o.a. de jaarcijfers in de vorm van "Marktrapport 20##")
http://www2.vlaanderen.be/economie/energiesparen/milieuvriendelijke/TA0509PV.pdf (pdf met artikel "Zonnepanelen scoren hoog", tevreden zonnestroom klanten in België/Vlaanderen. Test Aankoop publicatie met enquête onder 3.300 PV-systeem eigenaren)

PV in Wallonië (incl. Duitse "enclave"):
http://energie.wallonie.be/fr/le-solaire-photovoltaique.html?IDC=6185 (zonnestroom in Wallonië)
http://www.cwape.be/xml/doc.xml?IDD=5701&IDC=107 (recentste aansluit gegevens voor "decentrale productie eenheden" (waaronder de allergrootste bulk van PV-installaties) in Wallonië, status 17 november 2009)
http://www.cwape.be/xml/themes.xml?IDC=1532 (overzicht van diverse rapportages over groene elektriciteit in Wallonië, inclusief zonnestroom)
http://www.waalsweekblad.be/zonnepanelen.shtm (Goede Nederlandstalige info over de financiële ondersteuning van zonnestroom in het Waalse Gewest)

PV in Brussel:
http://www.brugel.be/Files/media/ElecVerte/Lijst_installaties_2008.pdf?siteID=2 (lijst met grotere installaties gecertificeerd voor ontvangst groencertificaten, met 5 PV-systemen)
http://www.brugel.be/Files/media/Rapport-Certificats-Verts-2008-v-1.1-NL.pdf (verslag markt groenestroom certificaten Brussel tot en met 2008)
http://www.bruxelles-renouvelable.be/sites/default/files/hen20_Web_press.pdf (samenvatting marktgroei PV in Brussel 2008 en verwachting voor 2009)

Franstalige databases:
http://www.bdpv.fr/stat_departement.php (zeer interessante, reeds ruim 4.000 PV-systemen [15,212 MWp] bevattende particuliere database met als zwaartepunt Frankrijk [24 sep. 2009: 3.567 installaties], maar ook veel Belgische systemen: 480 stuks in Franstalig België, 27 installaties in het autonome Bruxelles, en ook nog 19 exemplaren in drie Vlaamse provincies, ook klikbare kaart met alle installaties)
http://www.ef4.be/fr/getMOD/v/vID/425/modEND/pv-database/pv-database.html (Franstalige database voor Wallonië en Brussel met [stand 22 sep. 2009] reeds 2.126 aangemelde, vaak enkele kWac grote particuliere installaties, niet officieel)

Verder diverse bronnen in Belgische media, deels ook van Energeia.nl.

Webpagina voor het eerst opgemaakt dd. 22 september 2009, daarna indien mogelijk updates zodra nieuwe data bekend worden gemaakt

Update historie:
7 oktober 2009; 24 december 2009;

2 februari 2010; 7 februari 2010 (volledige update rest van België); 11 februari 2010 (herziene update voor heel België/gewijzigde data voor Vlaanderen); 11 maart 2010 (update Vlaanderen tm. feb. 2010); 1 april 2010 (publicatie samenvatting van deze pagina op SolarPlaza.com); 5 mei 2010 (update Vlaanderen tm. apr. 2010); 15 juni 2010 (update Vlaanderen tm. mei 2010); 12 juli 2010 (update Vlaanderen tm. 29 juni 2010); 8 augustus 2010 (update Vlaanderen tm. 31 juli 2010, foto's Katoen Natie); 13 december 2010 (update Vl., foto Diepenbeek sluis);

23 januari 2011 (update Vlaanderen tm. 1 januari 2011); 31 maart 2011 (volledige update tm. 28 februari 2011 met enkele nieuwe grafieken, aanpassing alle VREG data: opgaves in AC vermogen); 27 april 2011 (update 5 apr. 2011, markt groei tabel 2011, foto Nyrstar project, en 2e grafiek Katoen Natie toegevoegd); 18 mei 2011 (update 2 mei 2011); 7 juli 2011 (update 1 juni 2011); 23 augustus 2011 (update 1 augustus 2011); 11 oktober 2011 (update 1 september 2011); 24 oktober 2011 (update 1 oktober 2011); 23 november 2011 (update 1 november 2011); 12 december 2011 (update 1 december 2011);

1 februari 2012 (update VREG 1 januari 2012; revisie gegevens Wallonië en Brussel); 19 februari 2012 (update VREG 1 februari 2012 en spreadsheet 6 februari 2012); 30 maart 2012 (update VREG 2 maart 2012 en spreadsheet 1 maart 2012); 28 september 2012 (update TIR centrum Brussel 1,6 >> 1,2 MWp);

10 februari 2013 (update Belgische markt en deelmarkten Apere: zie hier)