Evolution of Germany's photovoltaic market up till 2013

¹ Based upon BNA data for January 2009 up till - and including - May 2013

Further PV-market analyses for Germany:
2012 2011 2010-II 2010-I 2009 2008 2007 def. 2007 cf. BSW 2006 2005

Note: in graph, "10.534" reads as "10534 MWp" (or "10 534 MWp" = 10.534 GWp)

Update for Germany with all Bundesnetzagentur (BNA) data and revisions included, up till, and including, May 2013. For year accumulations the most recent data from the so-called "Zeitreihen" publication of the German Environment Ministry (BMU) and the AGEE Statistics group has been taken as basic reference (all years included as of 1990, update Feb. 28, 2013). Comparison with minute micro-market Netherlands in red-lined box (same scale, 1 GWp line indicated but still far beyond reach), including preliminary accumulated capacity for the year 2012 using the most recently published CBS data. To that preliminary 2012 outcome, the known certified installations published by CertiQ for January up till May 2013 has been added. Note, that the absolute majority of new installations is not certified in Netherlands, but that its progression in 2013 remains an enigma until CBS generates new first data somewhere in May 2014. The market in NL has grown strong, but total [accumulated] capacity still is far below 500 MWp.

With all known revisions by Bundesnetzagentur, 2012 saw another world record market installation volume of 7604 MWp and over 188000 new PV-installations (registered entries in the BNA spreadsheets, volume shown in bright-green column segments). Note, however, that data for earlier years may still be adjusted in coming reports.

Progress with Gigawatts
With the new and revised monthly installations, total accumulated German PV-capacity has broken the 15 GWp barrier in September 2010, and surpassed 17 GWp end of December of that previous record year. The 20 GWp barrier has been surpassed with the August 2011 data provided by Bundesnetzagentur. That impressive volume has been reached in a relatively short time after breaking the "magic" 10 GWp barrier (accumulation of grid-connected PV-systems) in January or February 2010, depending on the data source for accumulated MWp level in previous years. 2011 has easily passed 24 GWp of accumulated capacity. In June 2012 already over 29 GWp has been reached, and finally, the "magical" volume of 30 GWp has been surpassed in July 2012. Although the capacity build-up has been severely tempered because of hefty cuts in the FIT levels, and very strong political turmoil around Germany's fascinating "Energiewende", new capacity data still show "respectful" levels. The present page gives some graphic details of a former world record PV-market cooling off.

Small, red-lined box for Netherlands in first graph based on CBS (only once a year results are being published, 2012 preliminary data became known only as late as May 23, 2012), but will certainly have to be revised substantially later in 2013. From the last available accumulation data obtained by Polder PV from CertiQ, it could be derived that at least 20.9 MWp new certified volume has been added in 2012, and that between Jan. and June 1. 2013 11.2 MWp new certified volume has been published. This brings "accumulated capacity", known from data in official reports, and own calculations, at roughly 351 MWp end of May 2013 (excluding not yet known "non-official, not-registered, un-certified new volume"). That "351 MWp" is only 1% of the accumulated ("all certified") volume in Germany end of May 2013...

Note again, that in NL also a large volume (double-digit MWp) will have to be added that has not been certified in the first half year of 2013. A law-enforced obligatory central registration for this majority of new PV-installations is still absent in Netherlands. Although the "PIR" register opened by the net managers is filled rapidly with many new installations. Hard numbers are very hard to obtain, complete data almost impossible...

Op deze pagina de eerste grafieken met cijfers over de realisatie van zonnestroom vermogen en productie in Duitsland in 2013, volgens cijfers van het BNA (Bundesnetzagentur), een ambtelijke organisatie onder het Bundeswirtschaftsministerium ("Economische Zaken van Duitsland"). Een groot deel van de opzet en basis informatie is ontleend aan de zeer gedetailleerde overzichten van voorgaande jaren en aangepast daar waar recenter cijfermateriaal is gepubliceerd.

Update capaciteit: BNA spreadsheets tm. mei 2013 (update van 30 mei 2013 op hun EEG statistiek web pagina). De impressionante resultaten vanaf januari 2012:

2012

Graphs comparing PV capacity evolution between years in Germany - per month and per quarter 2009-2013

Note: scale Y-axis may vary per month shown in graphs. "11.932" reads as "11932 installations", "516,6" should be interpreted as "516.6 MWp nominal capacity" [STC of generator].

Graphs made from BNA data/Grafieken gemaakt van BNA data. UPDATE: May 2013 (including partial revision of previous data)

Last data added: Bundesnetzagentur spreadsheet May 2013 (Status: June 19, 2013; website update: June 30, 2013).

All raw data in this section from Bundesnetzagentur (FRG) unless stated otherwise.
Graphs made by Peter J. Segaar/Polder PV, Leiden (Netherlands).

New capacity per month - segmentation

CLICK on graph for enlargement

Newly added nominal photovoltaic (DC) capacity per month (MWp, left Y-axis) in Germany in the period 2009-2013 (up till, and included, May 2013, and earlier published month revisions up till May 2011). Growth has been absolutely unprecedented for a long time, originally with only significant low volumes in the winter months January and February, in which roof and field work mostly is impossible due to snow and freezing conditions. New year volume in 2009 has been 4446 MWp according to revised BNA data. 2010 saw 6988 MWp of new installations (revised), 2011 produced 7485 new capacity (not yet revised), and the preliminary data for 2012 reported a new record volume of 7604 MWp.

Big PV-installations
The impact on total installed capacity of PV-installations is partially the result of many large solar power plants of 100-1000 kWp or even larger being reported. In the 2010 and 2011 overviews several of such large installations have been highlighted. There has been very strong growth of the larger system segments since end of 2011. The enormous MWp installation peaks result from "pre-degression-date-rushes" that are so typical if a successful, uncapped feed-in tariff regime enters into a new tariff phase in times that huge numbers of containers with cheap Asian/Chinese PV-modules could be found in all European harbours. In Germany these rushes have had a very high impact of total volume added in the "pre-FIT-change months". And they are one of the reasons why in Berlin some politicians want to get rid of support for PV altogether.

High MWp peaks are apparent in December 2011, March, June, and, ultimately, in September 2012. The "March Peak" might be the result of a "previously unplanned, hasty 100-1000 kWp installation rush" due to the sudden announcement of German Ministers Röttgen/Rößler that in April incentives would be dramatically cut back as compared to the already strongly adjusted tariffs valid as of Jan. 1, 2012. The June 2012 rush is probably the result of large free-field installations that had their building permits in time, but that were allowed a few months extra to realize the huge projects under the "old" EEG regime (with higher tariffs than planned as of April 1, 2012). A similar, huge "rush" has occurred in September of 2012: the last month that big installations could be "delivered" with the high incentive for the start of that year. In that month only, 48 portions of big solar parcs were registered with BNA, resulting in a staggering volume of 516 MWp for that segment only. That is 1.5 times total accumulated capacity "officially" known in neighbouring Netherlands up till December 2012 (first data published May 23, 2013)...

More graphs

In this section I present further graphs of development of the German photovoltaic market. If time allows to synthesize more data, they will appear on this webpage.

Monthly capacity growth differences 2009-2013

KLIK op plaatje voor uitvergroting

Big installations having huge impact on volume growth
This graph shows the data presented in the first graph, but now with yearly installation records for each month presented side by side. The largest fluctuations arise from new "feed-in degression dates", that have been fixed by politicians in Berlin. "Notorious" examples are July 2010, which pushed a - then world record - installation rush in June. December has, for a long time, been the "busiest month", since every year "natural feed-in degression" started at January 1 of the new year. The "rush" for December 2011 has been incredible, establishing a new world record month volume of 2.983 GWp in 31 days. That is an astonishing volume of over 93 MWp on average a day, Christmas and New Year's Eve - hypothetically - included (see also graphs on daily basis below). Only the category >100 kWp (here divided in three installation category segments by me) brought 1,94 GWp on-line in that month, 65% of total volume... (and over 13 times the accumulated volume - 146 MWp - in Netherlands, end of 2011).

In 2012, March saw another installation rush, as most investors feared the brutal incentive cuts announced by Röttgen/Rößler for April. This highly politically motivated desaster policy (later turned down by the Bundesrat, necessitating a review and leading to Röttgen's demise after another hefty blow in regional elections for CDU) resulted in an extra 1.22 GWp of additions. Since free-field installation projects with permits could still realise in the summer under the "old" incentives, it came as no surprise that another huge peak was recorded by BNA in June 2012: again 1.79 GWp was added in 30 days. The overwhelming majority of the capacity involved, again, has been installed in the >100 kWp category in that summer month: 1.54 GWp, 86% of total volume. For comparison: in Jan. - Jun. 2012, the smallest category up till 10 kWp claimed, on average, a volume of only 70 MWp per month (high volume of March included). However, in June 2012 only 42 MWp has been reported for this residential category...

In July and August 2012 less volume was added as in those months in the previous year, in particular so for August. However, 329 MWp still is a large volume for one holiday month. That volume was dwarfed by the (final?) "big installation rush" in September, bringing another large volume of 981 MWp on-line. October and November still brought considerable new volume. However, for the first time in a long tradition, the December 2012 volume has been very moderate, only 330 MWp was brought on-line in that month. This was because no dramatic free-fall of the FIT was to be expected for January 2013.

The first five months for 2013 brought "moderate" volumes, with April sofar bringing the highest volume, 368 MWp. A month capacity that still would make many countries happy if it would be installed within a whole year. But for Germany a sign on the wall that the golden years are over. And that with political turmoil concerning the spectacular Energiewende, prediction of another strong rise of the so-called EEG Umlage (the bonus on the kWh price that should be borne by all electricity users - many companies however excluded), low remaining feed-in tariffs, and "correcting" customs fees on imported Chinese PV-modules, another era has started in "the former world champion on photovoltaics". That will be side-stepped by Japan, China, and USA within the present year.

CLICK on graph for enlargement

Detail of graph with new capacity of PV-installations per year per category (MWp), focussing on the smaller ("residential") market segments up till 10 kWp (partly off-scale in the image). In particular the segment up till 5 kWp, fitting on many smaller houses in Germany, is important since it is the "barometer" of the most important public market segment. Installation costs are most apparent with small system sizes and become a very important factor in all-system price with relative low cost of the modules. In this detail graph, the smallest segment (1-5 kWp) is represented in light yellow columns at the bottom of the graph. Stacked on top of that is the >5-10 kWp segment (yellow), and so on. From the low volumes in the months not previous to (expected) feed-in degression dates in 2012 (level 4-24 MWp for 1-5 kWp category), it seemed that the volume of "small" installations was becoming an ever smaller segment of total market volume. As of July 2012, the level of participation seems to have more or less stabilized - with a dip in the snow-rich and cold winter months January and February 2013.

A large part of the burden for the EEG feed-in, has to be paid by civilians having a roof suited for such a PV-system size. It is clear that a large discrepancy between realized capacity on "normal" residential roofs, and the ever growing mass of large to huge size scale PV-installations cannot continue indefinitely, if positive social acceptance for support for solar is considered a major goal for the industry in Germany. With the last changes in the EEG Law, installations larger than 10 MWp cannot longer apply for support from EEG incentives, and FITs have again been reduced on a monthly basis. It remains to be seen how strong the impact of all the "negative factors" will be with realisation of capacity. It is expected that a volume of app. 4 GWp possibly could be realized in 2013. Still a respectable volume. But by long not enough to lengthen Germany's supremacy in photovoltaic deployment for another year.

^^^
New small PV-installations with sizes less than 5 kWp become rarer in Germany. This "residential" PV-system, having 81 black mono panels, could easily have a system size over 18 kWp if modules of 225 Wp or larger have been applied. It is highly improbable that system production and on-site electricity consumption will be even remotely in balance (an 18 kWp installation, oriented south, could easily produce far beyond 16000 kWh a year in Germany). In most situations (in Germany), all electricity is fed into the local grid.

Photo taken in Stadlohn during short cycling trip in the "Green Border" region between NL and Germany, beyond Winterswijk (see photographic impressions in this contribution by Polder PV).

Monthly number of installations growth differences 2009-2013

CLICK on graph for enlargement

Figure comparable with the one for capacity, now showing number of installations per year and per month. Despite the many cut-backs in incentives for PV-installations in Germany, the number of new installations realized remains phenomenal. Here the monthly additions are shown. Per year the following numbers have been added according to (revised) Bundesnetzagentur data; 2009 159820, 2010 249733 (world record, with population of that year that was approximately one out of 327 Germans with a brand-new PV-system), 2011 238719, 2012 184298.

If we compare the data for the first 5 months (January up till, and including, May) of 2013 with those for the previous years, the following list appears:

Progressive development of Germany's PV market in 2012-2013
Progressieve ontwikkeling van de PV-markt in Duitsland in 2012-2013

Figure comparable to previous set of graphs, this time showing progressive development of number of photovoltaic installations in Germany in 2012 and 2013. In green absolute new numbers per month (refer to left Y-axis for scale), in yellow, with red numbers, the accumulation of these data per month (refer to right Y-axis for scale).

Status: May 2013.
Graph includes all published BNA month revisions for data up till (and included) May 2011.
For year overviews of new installations reported on a daily basis, see below.

Continuous sequence as of Jan. 1, 2009 (see also details below)
Registered number of installations and total capacity per day at the Bundesnetzagentur office. All installations have a day-stamp in the Excel files produced by BNA. Clearly, the weekend interruptions can be seen in this graph (no or very little entries on weekend days). All registrations are lined up, starting from January 1, 2009 (beginning of EEG Novelle-dictated registrations at BNA) up till May 31, 2013, at the right of the X-axis. In blue-rimmed columns number of installations with scale on right Y-axis; in yellow filled columns total capacity registered on the day shown in kWp, scale on left Y-axis.

Installation rushes clearly visible on daily basis
High peaks in the graph indicate the typical "end of former interesting feed-in regime" rushes. Just prior to a certain date (fixed by Berlin politicians, sometimes after heavy battles in parliament) private persons as well as big investors try to finish their new installations under the old, more profitable incentive regime (feed-in-tariff for 20 years). In particular with respect to "just-in-time-finishing" of big solar parcs, enormous reporting peaks in capacity are visible in the graphs on certain days. For four "earlier" details of this graph, showing the end of June 2010, end of September 2010, and the December 2010/January 2011 reporting peaks, as well as the "false" June/July 2011 peak, see the graphs in the report for 2011.

For the end of 2009 December rush (due to law-derived degression percentages as of Jan. 1, 2010 8-11%) the pre-Christmas-day of December 23 had its record number of installations registered (2939 entries), as well as with respect to total new capacity: 137.1 MWp on one day. The June 30, 2010 former world record (442 MWp reported in one day) was later followed one and a half year later, by a incredible 756 MWp on December 19, 2011. This was because end of that year no more new big PV-installations were allowed under the EEG incentive regime on agricultural premises, so all efforts were undertaken to get most profit from often long-planned sites before the dead-line. Because of coming Christmas, the investors focussed on finishing their installations before those problematic days. This all resulted in this enormous volume reported on one day. Mind you: with "only" 2500 installations reported on that day (system average reported on that day: 303 kWp per installation).

In 2010, the third degression step, that of October 1 (3% extra degression for all new installations as of that date) showed only a relatively low peak at September 30, originally reporting 71.1 MWp by Bundesnetzagentur. However, in the December 23, 2010, update for September 2010, a large new volume was added and many installations, resulting in a considerable peak of 4783 new installations on that day, with an accumulated volume of 162.3 MWp (128% more than originally published!).

Although the volumes for the snow-rich December 2010 month have appeared lower than expected, it is clear that the end of 2010 has resulted in a relatively large number of big installations.

Next, a "false" peak appeared prior to a widely expected tariff degression as per July 1, 2011, part of planned law-enforcement by Germany's conservatives that even by Photon's high standards was considered as a so-called "Solarstromabwürgungsgesetz" (Law to strangle the market conditions for solar electricity). Due to slow market growth in Spring of that year, however, the degression was not implemented, as already predicted by Polder PV on June 27, 2011. However, that was not known at that time, and many investors, large and small, did not take the chance that their installations would fall in a lower feed-in category if they would have connected their PV-installations to the grid after that threatening first of July, 2011. The resulting "peak" has remained relatively modest for world market Germany, "only" 2311 new installations with 74 MWp of capacity on June 30, 2011.

End of 2011 has seen enormous installation volumes, and in particular new capacity coming from many large field installations, resulting in various peaks in the last days of that year. Between December 19 and the end of Dec. 31, a staggering volume of 34466 new installations has been reported, with an accumulated volume of 2.36 GWp in only 13 days.

Another new degression date, April 1, 2012, has been bitterly contested in the struggle for Rösler and Röttgen's desastrous EEG law revision proposals earlier that year. This has ultimately resulted in the Bundesrat changing several dramatic issues in retrorespect (see article with details in Dutch published on July 16, 2012). Many people did not want to wait until that "threatening" date, and, again, a new "installation rush" was born. Resulting in 4.581 new installations reported on the last working day, March 30, 2012 (Friday, 170 MWp; the last day, March 31, added another 1.785 reported installations with 67 MWp on Saturday).

Two "last big rushes" were reserved for the "big installations". Those that had a building permit before March 1 were allowed to realize their installations up till June 30 under the profitable old conditions (tariffs as of Jan. 1, 2012). Large field installations could realize until first of September 2012 under those conditions. The result is again apparent in the graphs with daily claims at Bundesnetzagentur. A large volume of 386 MWp (yellow peak) was claimed for June 29, 2012, for 1.768 projects (and much more volume for big installations in the days before). A "final big rush" established itself in the last days of September 2012. With several days over 100 MWp of new capacity reported, September 26, 2012, the most striking one reporting with 132 MWp for 962 new installations.

Degressions still occurring, but effects relatively small
After these "final of the finals", degressions have been introduced on a monthly basis. The result is that there still is a trend towards a "rush just before the end of each month". But those "rushes" have become much smaller than previously. Resulting in a "maximum" of 98 MWp for 1.409 new installations reported on April 30 in 2013. Since there has not been a dramatic FIT degression on January 1, 2013, for the first time there has not been a large installation rush at the end of December of the previous year. Degression as per Jan. 1, 2013 has been 2.5%, and continues to be implemented each month for new installations (see also overview at website of SFV). In the last image for 2013, with adjusted Y-axis (volumes not as high as in previous years), the "small rushes on a monthly basis" are clearly visible.

In the next graphs, the calendar year images are given for the new installations reported at Bundesnetzagentur on a daily basis. Note that the Y-axis varies among the calendar year shown. CLICK on images for enlargement.

In this final section, the daily numbers published by German Bundesnetzagentur have been averaged per calendar week, resulting in a more "homogeneous" character of the graphs and avoiding strong variations on a day-to-day basis. In the X-axis the calendar weeks have been shown coded "xx-yy". Where "xx" stands for the year (short in 2 numbers, "09" = 2009), and "yy" for the official calendar week in that year. For those official week numbers, take a look at, a.o., www.calendar-365.com.

In this graph, the number of new installations reported in the Bundesnetzagentur spreadsheets per calendar week have been shown. The "installation peaks" relate to the many - politically motivated - degression dates for the FITs in Germany. A few "harsh" degressions in the early years leading to sometimes very large peaks. And "many smaller" degressions as of autumn 2012 resulting in rather different graph dynamics. Some highlights have been indicated with installation numbers reported in the weeks under consideration. Absolute "winner" has been calendar week 26 of 2010, in which, just prior to the widely "feared" degression as per July 1, 2010 (FITs minus 13%), a huge number of 29710 new installations has been reported to BNA.

This graph shows the average number (yellow columns, refer to left Y-axis) and average new capacity (blue columns, refer to right Y-axis) reported per day per calender week is shown. Again, the "installation rush peaks" are clearly visible. The maxima per category have not been reached in the same calendar week. For the average number per day per week, the maximum again fell in week 26 of 2010, like has been shown for the "absolute" week volume in the previous graph. It reached a level of an incredible 4244 installations "on average per day" in that week. However, for the maximum average capacity reported in a week we must look much further to the right. There we find an astonishing 187.5 MWp on average per day in calendar week 51, just prior to Christmas and the end of the year 2011. That was just in time for the 15% FIT degression starting on January 1, 2012.

Another high peak can be found in week number 26 of 2012, just in time for project developers could finalize their plans under the older FITs as a result of political turmoil in Berlin. In that week a daily average of 181.6 MWp of new capacity has been recorded in the BNA offices. After the 90.3 MWp/day peak for the last week (39) that large field installations could be delivered under older, higher FIT payments by the netmanagers (up till September 30, 2012), conspicuous high volumes were not realized anymore. In 2013, the highest level has become approximately 25 MWp on average per day, per calendar week.

In this final graph the average system size of newly reported PV-systems at the BNA's office has been plotted from calculations per calendar week. Again, "FIT-degression-related-rushes" are visible. Peaks become higher and culminate in two "major highs". One in week 26 of 2012, the final chance for many larger PV-installations with a building permit present up till March 1 of that year to opt-in for the previous, lucrative FIT valid at the start of the year. Culminating in a very large "average weekly system size" of 178.4 kWp (average of all installations in that week!). And a second in week 39, the last chance for large field installations to opt-in for the FIT at the start of the year, yielding a system average of 109.3 kWp in that week.

The (max.) 52 kWp average in week 22 of 2013 has more than halved that "week average", which is the result of the fact that large field systems are maximized to a level of 10 MWp per installation to be eligible for a FIT onder Germany's newly adjusted EEG 2012.

There is discussion on the "validity" of the data of Bundesnetzagentur, which can differ considerably from those provided by the so-called ÜNB's (the four high voltage network operators in Germany). For an interesting view of the problems behind those politically very sensitive data, see this contribution (in German) on Solarserver.de:

Many studies with overwhelming details, numbers, and graphs, on developments with respect to the implementation of EEG Law and renewables in Germany can be found on the very well documented, unique site "Erneuerbare Energien" by the Ministry of Environment in Germany, BMU:

Additional calculations and graph production: Polder PV. Errors and miscalculations are the responsibility of Polder PV. Please notify the webmaster if you find any.


*PV ex-Weltmeister 2013*	links	PV-systeem	basics	grafieken graphs	huurwoningen	nieuws	index

Weltmeister in slow retreat

Update May 2013¹

A first insight in Germany's market growth in photovoltaics in 2013

Voorlopige cijfers ontwikkeling fotovoltaïsche markt en zonnestroom productie 2013 in Duitsland

Weltmeister in slow retreat

Update May 2013¹ A first insight in Germany's market growth in photovoltaics in 2013

Voorlopige cijfers ontwikkeling fotovoltaïsche markt en zonnestroom productie 2013 in Duitsland

Update May 2013¹

A first insight in Germany's market growth in photovoltaics in 2013