starting up our own green power production unit: 4 solar panels, March 2000
Europese energie groen?



Solar statistics Europe 2008

Zonne-statistieken Europa 2008

On this webpage several graphs I made from the data published by EurObserv'ER in their ninth Report, "The State of Renewable Energies in Europe".

Op deze pagina enkele grafieken die ik heb gemaakt van data gepubliceerd door EurObserv'ER in hun 9th Report, "The State of Renewable Energies in Europe".

Market development for photovoltaics in EU27 GRAPHS
Market development for thermal solar collectors in EU27 GRAPHS
Concentrating Solar Power - summary (Dutch)

Progression of renewable electricity in EU27 per country (Dutch) GRAPH
Progression of renewable energy in EU27 per country (Dutch) GRAPH

More recent reports:
up till 2010, up till 2009


In februari 2010 werd een nieuw overzicht van statistieken over duurzame energie in de EU27 gepubliceerd door EurObserv'ER. Polder PV selecteerde de gegevens voor, met name, zonne-energie, maakte er enkele grafieken van, en belichtte nog enkele opvallende zaken.

Grafieken met marktontwikkeling zonnestroom in EU27
Graphs with market development for photovoltaics in EU27

Figure 1. Accumulated capacity of photovoltaic installations in the EU27, in GWp (1 GWp = 1.000 MWp = 1.000.000 kWp), in three consecutive years (2006-2008) according to the latest data reported by EurObserv'ER (note that numbers might be refreshed in new reports dealing with previous years). Data for these and other graphs below come from the State of Renewable Energies in Europe report (publ. 2009) in which the latest data for 2007 and 2008 were given. Numbers for 2006 come from the Photovoltaic Barometer report published April 2008.

The graph shows strong growth in these years, and an absolute dominance of grid-connected systems. Autonomous ("off-grid") systems make up only 1,3% of the PV market and will dwindle further in significance.Growth was even negative between 2006 and 2007 for this small category. Growth in grid-connected PV was strong in that period (over 59%), and almost doubled to 98 percent from the accumulated 2007 capacity into 2008, with final accumulated capacity of 9,69 GWp (according to EurObserv'ER).

Figure 2. CLICK on graph to see enlargement. EurObserv'er refreshed some older data in their latest report. Here, the difference is shown for the accumulation data for photovoltaic EU27 markets in 2008 between the latest Photovoltaic Barometer (PB) report published March 2009, and the present State of Renewable Energies in Europe (SREE) report/edition 2009. The difference is shown in percentage of the PB report findings in purple columns, data on the right Y-axis. The original data from the SREE report are given in yellow columns, left Y-axis. The adjustments are most striking for Italy with over 44% more installations than previously reported (apparently a large backlog of installed PV-capacity there), and to a lesser extent France with almost 12% additions, most probably for a large part resulting from including the overseas departments (not included in the previous PB data). On the "negative" side are adjustments to lower accumulations in the small markets of Poland, Estonia and Latvia. Only a slight deviation from predicted or preliminary accumulation records in such small markets immediately leads to high percentages in the adjustment graph.

Note: for the Netherlands only an estimation was done in the PB report since apparently there were no actual data available at that time from our authorities (Polder PV is located in the Netherlands). This comes to no surprise, since keeping track of the mostly undocumented (small) installations in our country is virtually impossible, and reliable official publications for the actual growth of the now "subsidized" market segment (SDE: 2008 18 MWp "approved", but at start of 2010 still only one third realized and accepted for green certificates by CertiQ) are still lacking. In the SREE report 4,1 MWp has been added instead of the previous PB estimate of 1 MWp for on-grid, and 0,6 MWp for off-grid installations. Note, however, that the 2008 market report of the official CBS statistics bureau, has stated a market growth of 4,444 MWp for the Netherlands (4,205 MWp on-grid plus 0,239 MWp off-grid). Hence, another discrepancy between published data.

Figure 3. Accumulated PV-capacity per EU27 country (only for 2008 accumulation is given in numbers). Note absolute dominance of world market Germany, with over 5,3 GWp accumulated. Secondly, for the year 2008 a world record increase (difference between blue and green column, almost 2,7 GWp in one year) for Spain, adding up to 3,4 GWp. The booming Spanish market, however, collapsed because of a harsh 500 MWp/year cap introduced by the Industry Ministry for 2009. Italy on a good third place with 458 MWp, with much potential (already filled in the next year, 2009). The rest of the EU27 countries is hardly visible on this scale (see graphs below). Actual accumulation data can differ considerably, depending on the source. Therefore, mind the red warning (also applicable to other graphs presented on this page): the detailed numbers Photon obtained from the primary source for reliable PV data in world market Germany, the almost 900 net managers, revealed that in 2008 already 5,95 GWp were on the grid. 11% more than the EurObserv'ER data presented in this section, and not even accounting for the off-grid installations that EurObserv'ER included in their data (40 MWp).

Note that for France**, the results for the overseas departments ("Departements Outre Mer", DOM) also have been included in the accumulated data. They account for a respectable accumulated total of 30,5 MWp in 2008, representing almost 30% (!) of the 102 MWp for the whole country. This should be kept in mind if one wants to consider the European context focussed on the old subcontinent and its neigbouring isles. The "DOM" isles, French Guyana, and a small slice of Antarctica, all falling under a variety of administrative legislation frameworks, are scattered over the globe and far removed from the direct "physical" influence sphere of Europe, see English Wikipedia map and accompanying clarifications.

Figure 4. Same graph as figure 2, but with a scale better outlining the data for the rest of the EU27 countries (Germany, Spain and Italy running off the Y-axis). Note the strong differences in development between the other countries: explosive growth in France, Belgium, Portugal, and Czech Republic (good, uncapped incentive regimes). But low growth for my own country, the Netherlands. That once was on the forefront of market implementation, but that has lost all contact with reality with an extremely complicated, highly capped, and hardly stimulating "incentive" regime as of April 1, 2008.

Figure 5. Detail showing the first 10 countries in the EU27, with huge variation in the implemented PV-capacities. Difference between Germany and the small country of Luxembourg already has grown to a factor 223 in 2008. Difference with Spain has shrunk dramatically from a factor 16 in 2006 to only 1,6 in 2008. However, due to market collapse in Spain (2009), and explosive market growth in Germany, the solar champion renewed its absolute dominance with an estimated 3-4 GWp added only in that year (yet to be published by Bundesnetzagentur). In the "top ten", the Netherlands, Austrian and Luxembourg markets hardly grew significantly.

Figure 6. Accumulation of PV-capacity in EU27 countries per inhabitant/capita and per year. For this, the World Population Reference Bureau data for 2009 have been used in the calculations (hence: mid 2009 population as fixed reference). A very different picture emerges, with the small country Luxembourg as a suprising third on the podium. However: incentives have been stopped there, and growth as of 2006 has been very low. In contrast, the ratios in other countries have been growing fast. Not only in the world markets Germany and Spain, the latter temporarily taking the lead in 2008 based on the present data. Also Italy, Belgium, and the Czech Republic are developing fast. France has a relative low impact in this graph but will probably grow faster in coming years (2009 included). Cyprus is positioned relatively high with its rather small population (1,1 million) but already 2,2 MWp of PV-installations (27% of which is off-grid according to EurObserv'ER). In the right of the graph, the average data for EU27 countries have been given in deviating colours. Already over 19 Watt(peak) per capita has been realized in the EU27 in 2008.

Figure 7. Year-on-year growth of the photovoltaic markets in EU27 countries for 2007 and 2008, in percentage of the previous market accumulation year published by EurObserv'ER. Actual percentages only presented for the period 2007-2008 for all countries. Yet another picture emerging, with relatively "low" growth in world market Germany (still: 39% in the period 2007-2008!), (very) strong growth numbers for Spain, Italy, France, Belgium, Portugal, and the Czech Republic. And a flabbergasting 1.776% in the poor east-European country Bulgaria... Of course, when a market is still small (Bulgaria 2008 accumulation: 1,407 MWp), and growth is fast (added in 2008: 1,332 MWp), the growth percentages will be very high. That is the reason that the growth in the already huge, mature world market Germany "seems" so modest in this comparison.

Again, my own rich country the Netherlands, once a "top" market for a few years, is behaving as a very bad boy in this comparison, with negligible growth percentages.To the right of the graph again the average data for all EU27 countries is presented. Showing "healthy" growth percentages of 57% for the period 2006-2007, and, suprisingly, a top 96% in the "crisis period" 2007-2008. Note the "negative growth" for Latvia in the period 2006-2007: resulting from 0,006 MWp for 2006 being adjusted to only 0,004 MWp for 2007 by EurObserv'ER.

Grafieken met marktontwikkeling van thermische zonnecollectoren in EU27
Graphs with market development for thermal solar collectors in EU27

Figure 8. Thermal solar collector market development in EU27 in the years 2006-2008. Newly added surface (m²) per year stagnated from 2006 to 2007 (slight decrease in new capacity added), but grew again strongly with almost 52% (added: over 4.500 m²) in the "crisis" year 2008 (orange columns, right Y-axis). Total accumulation of all m² installed in EU27 grew strongly, 12,9% from 2006 to 2007, and even 18,6% from 2007 to 2008 (dark brown columns in the background, left Y-axis). Already, a surface of 28,5 million square metres had been realized at the end of 2008 in the 27 EU countries.

Figure 9. Surface area (in million square meters) of thermal solar collectors in 27 EU countries. Again, Germany leads the way in unprecedented manner (almost 3 times as much surface area as the number 2), followed bij their southern, also German-speaking neighbour Austria that has a long tradition with this sustainable energy modus. Thermal collectors can be found on many roofs in the Mediterranean region, which is reflected in the data from EurObserv'ER: Greece leading the way, followed by France, Italy, and Spain. Surprisingly, Netherlands follows on number 7, but development of the market again remains relatively slow, despite a new temporary incentive regime. Only for 2008 the accumulated data are given per country.Growth in Germany has been considerable in 2008 (added: 1,92 million m²...).

Figure 10. More detailed graph as figure 9, better outlining the contributions of the "lesser" countries (Germany off-scale). Note that, apart from progressive development in the numbers 2 (Austria) and 3 (Greece) in 2008, also strong growth occurred in France, Italy and Spain.

Figure 11. Detail showing the first 10 countries in the EU27, with a considerable range of implemented thermal solar collector surface areas. The difference between Germany and the Czech Republik (number 10) has grown to a factor 28 in 2008 - the "span" between the numbers 1 and 10 is less wide than with photovoltaics. The difference with the number 2, Austria, remains, however considerable - a factor of almost 2,9 in 2008. Growth of Austria, Greece, and France was moderate. Italy and in particular Spain (+35,2%) grew considerable. The latter 4 "top ten countries" hardly grew, apart from the Czech Republic (+27,8%).

Figure 12. Accumulation of thermal solar collector capacity in EU27 countries per inhabitant/capita and per year. Also for this graph, the World Population Reference Bureau data for 2009 have been used in the calculations (hence: mid 2009 population as fixed reference). And also in this picture, some other accents become visible as in the original graphs with "absolute" surface areas per country. This time, the small, sunny Mediterranean island of Cyprus leads the way, with a surface of 0,6 m² per inhabitant. Germany, leader when it comes to overall surface area realized, is set back to the fourth place because of its large population (hence: smaller ratio per inhabitant). Austria is on the second position, followed by the only other serious competitor Greece. Following Germany other countries have less than 0,1 square metre per inhabitant, starting with that other Mediterranean island, Malta. At the right end of the graph, the average data for EU27 countries have been given in deviating colours. 0,06 m² per capita has been realized in the EU27 in 2008, which easily should and could get much larger. Thermal solar energy can offset a lot of fossil primary energy use and should be stimulated with great urgency.

Figure 13. Year-on-year growth of the thermal solar collector markets in EU27 countries for 2007 and 2008, in percentage of the previous market accumulation year published by EurObserv'ER. Actual percentages only presented for the period 2007-2008 for all countries.

Yet another picture emerging, with relatively "low" growth in world market Germany (20% in the period 2007-2008), and suprising strong growth for the Atlantic island nation of Ireland (123% in 2008). Other growth percentages are good and widely spread among EU27 nations. Portugal had a short boom year in 2007 and fell back to a more moderate 29% growth in 2008. Poor "growth performers" are, yet again, my own country, the Netherlands, Cyprus and Denmark. Even the large Greek market did not show strong appetite, with only 8,4% increase of the 2007 capacity into 2008. The minute state of Luxembourg (part of the Benelux to which Netherlands and Belgium also belong) had a peculiar negative correction (?) of its installed capacity growth in the period 2006-2007, but started growing again into 2008. Average European (EU27) growth numbers for these two years were 12,9 and 18,8%, respectively.

Concentrating Solar Power

In het EurOberv'ER rapport ook een interessant overzichtje van de stand van zaken rond de grootschalige productie van zonnestroom middels grote CSP centrales. Voor details van de stand van zaken gelieve verder te lezen op de website van GEZEN, die alle ins en outs van deze typische "industriële tak" van opwekking van hernieuwbare zonne-energie behandelt.

Anno 2008-2009 waren in Spanje actief:

  • PS10 tower project, 11 MW, project opgestart in 2006
  • Aznalcollar TH parabolische spiegelcentrale, 80 kW, opgestart in 2007
  • PS20 vervolgproject met toren, 20 MW, opgestart in 2008
  • Andasol I, parabolische spiegelcentrale, 50 MW, in 2008
  • Andasol II, idem, 50 MW, in 2009

Gepland voor 2009 en later:

  • PE1/Puerto Errdo, lineaire Fresnel reflector, 1,4 MW, in 2009
  • 25 andere projecten, het merendeel de klassieke parabolische spiegelcentrales, met een totaal vermogen van 2.123 MW, vanaf 2010

Andere landen doen ook wel iets, maar liggen ver achter op Spanje (binnen Europa).

  • Eurodish research project, parabolische spiegels, 10 kW, al in 2004 opgestart (Frankrijk)
  • 3 andere projecten in Frankrijk, 3 technologieën, 13,45 MW totaal, vanaf 2010
  • Research tower project in Jülich, Duitsland, 1,5 MW, vanaf 2008
  • 2 projecten in Italië, een parabolische spiegelcentrale van 5 MW, en een compacte lineaire Fresnel reflector centrale van 6,5 MW, beiden vanaf 2010.

Volgens EurObserv'ER zou er eind 2008 81 MW commercieel on-line zijn, en 232,4 MW eind 2009. De vooruitzichten zijn veelbelovend, zeker met het gigantische en met veel bombarie aangekondigde 100 GW Desertec project in Noord Afrika, wat voor veel politieke "clout" zorgt ter ondersteuning van de grootschalig toe te passen technologie. In Spanje en Italië zijn specifieke feed-in tarieven voor CSP stroom in het leven geroepen (26,9 resp. 22-28 eurocent/kWh). Volgens EurObserv'ER waren er eind 2008 wereldwijd al 679 MW aan CSP centrales in bedrijf.

Progressie hernieuwbare elektriciteit per land

In deze grafiek uit het rapport (p. 93) wordt de situatie per land weergegeven met het percentage hernieuwbare elektriciteit in de stroomconsumptie voor 2008, de (Kyoto) doelstelling voor 2010. Nederland bezette in 2008 al een onbetekenende 15e plaats met 7,8% "hernieuwbaar". Waarbij beslist aangetekend moet worden dat daar (deels ook praktijk in andere landen) een groot aandeel van twijfelachtige oorsprong bijzit (biomassa bijstook in fossiele energiecentrales van grote energieholdings, afvalverbranding met geschatte biogene fractie, grootschalige verbranding van kippenmest uit de bioindustrie, etc.). Dus zelfs al zou de beruchte "9% in 2010" met hakken over de sloot worden gehaald: we mogen daar nooit "trots" op zijn, omdat het fors bij elkaar gesjoemelde "nep-groene" elektriciteit zal blijken te gaan (die ook nog eens nooit kleinschalig geproduceerd zal kunnen worden).

Oostenrijk en Zweden nemen de leiding: ze hebben al vele jaren het "geluk" dat ze grote waterbekkens bezitten/gebouwd hebben, waar een zeer aanzienlijk deel van hun stroommix mee kan worden opgewekt. Ook dit soort projecten kunnen feitelijk alleen door grote, kapitaalkrachtige energieholdings worden uitgevoerd, en zijn beslist geen teken van een "gezonde decentrale energiemarkt".

Let op dat Duitsland en, surprise, Hongarije, als enige EU27 landen reeds (fors) over hun Kyoto doelstellingen zijn geraakt (bovenste zwarte balkje).

Figure 14. Share of renewable electricity in gross consumption in EU27. 2008 (upper bar) and 2010 objective (lower bar).
Nederland (rode pijlkop) zakt steeds verder weg en is nog op zijn hoogst te kwalificeren als een middenklasser binnen de EU27: in 2008 nog maar 7,8% "hernieuwbare" elektriciteit (voor een aanzienlijk deel van dubieuze "kwaliteit"), doelstelling voor 2010 is 9%. Alleen een wonder kan ons land nog "redden" en dat tussendoel op zijn hoogst met de hakken over de sloot "haalbaar" maken. Misschien nog wat extra gezonde geiten of een paar miljoen bioindustrie kippen afmaken om daar groene stroom van te maken?

Progressie hernieuwbare (primaire) energie per land

In deze grafiek uit het rapport (p. 90) wordt de situatie per land weergegeven met het percentage hernieuwbare primaire energie als aandeel van de totale consumptie voor 2008 (%).

Zweden, traditioneel al over enorm potentieel aan waterkracht en over uitgestrekte bossen beschikkend, neemt de leiding, verrassend gevolgd door het kleine oost-Europese land Litouwen en het zich ook rijk aan grootschalige waterkracht rekenende Oostenrijk. Let wel: dat zijn ook niet zwaar geïndustrialiseerde landen met niet al te grote bevolkingspopulaties, en dat zijn factoren die in dit soort grafieken natuurlijk extreem zwaar meewegen.

Vandaar dat het alom bewonderde en geloofde Duitsland hier nog niet erg hoog in voorkomt, pas op de 12e plaats vlak achter Italië wat natuurlijk ook al over een fors hydropower potentieel in de Alpen kan beschikken, wat Duitsland moet ontberen. Nederland doet het op dit vlak gruwelijk slecht, wat natuurlijk wordt verergerd door een hoge bevolkingsdichtheid en gigantische, fossiele energie zuipende industriële sectoren zoals de enorme havenlokaties in de Europoort, andere energiezuipers als de Botlek, Moerdijk, DSM terreinen, en niet te vergeten: de gas verslindende glas- en tuinbouw industrie. Maar ook de ronduit dramatisch slecht ondersteunde "opbouw" van een hernieuwbare energiesector, en continue sabotage door veel te machtige partijen in ons land, maakt dat we ons met een schandalige 22e plaats "tevreden" moeten stellen, achter diverse oostblok landen, en net voor die andere achterlopers, Luxemburg (kan niet heel erg veel op hun kleine stukje grond), België (is aan een enorme inhaalrace bezig en heeft ons land op het vlak van zonnestroom al ver achter zich gelaten), super smeerpoets U.K. (die met peperdure quota systemen de eigen duurzame energiesector kort heeft gehouden, en ook nog eens zwaar lijkt te willen inzetten op de achterhaalde nukes), en dan nog twee kleine eilandstaatjes in de Mediterranée...

Het "gemiddelde" voor EU27 bedraagt nog slechts 8,2 procent. Daar moet nog gigantisch veel aan gebeuren, dat is wel duidelijk.

Figure 15. Share of renewable energy in the primary energy consumption in EU27 in 2008
Totale impact van "hernieuwbaar" (breed geïnterpreteerd) op de primaire energie consumptie in EU27. Nederland is een onbetekende factor geworden door jarenlange politieke sabotage, desinteresse en oe-ver-loos geouwehoer.

Links (homepage pagina van waar het rapport kan worden gedownload) (het rapport "The State of Renewable Energies in Europe/9th EurObserv'ER Report, 171 pagina's, 6,61 MB)

Pagina gepubliceerd op 18 februari 2010


© 2010 Peter J. Segaar/Polder PV, Leiden (NL)